Target Guenther vs. Blackhawks, fade Barkov in back-to-back
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We swept the board with our player props on Monday night, putting together a perfect 3-0 card.
We'll look to replicate that effort with three more plays for a busy Tuesday slate.
Aleksander Barkov: Under 2.5 shots
Barkov has gone under his shot total in eight of the last nine away games, averaging minuscule numbers over that span. He's recorded just 1.8 shots per game on only 3.3 attempts.
This is a very tough spot for him to get back on track. For all the Devils' faults, they're good at limiting shots - particularly against centers. No team has conceded fewer shots per game to the position over the last 10 games.
Barkov is also in a back-to-back situation, something he's struggled with this season. He's recorded less than three shots in all five of his back-to-backs thus far.
Look for his road shooting woes to continue in New Jersey.
Odds: -114 (playable to -130)
Dylan Guenther: Over 2.5 shots
The Coyotes' young sniper is heating up. He's gone over 2.5 shots in five straight games while averaging 7.4 shot attempts.
Guenther seems to be meshing well with Jason Zucker, generating more than 24 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with the veteran on his line. That's high-end production.
I love that Guenther's recent hot streak has come against a string of difficult opponents, having faced the Maple Leafs twice, the Avalanche, and a Capitals team just outside the playoff picture.
He should have a much easier time generating offense against the Blackhawks, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Chicago is bleeding shots to wingers, having allowed 16 shots per game versus the position over the last 10 games - nearly three more shots than the closest team.
Don't expect Guenther to cool down here.
Odds: -114 (playable to -135)
Nikolaj Ehlers: Over 2.5 shots
Gabriel Vilardi recently left a game against the Stars with an injury. Since then, Ehlers' usage has increased to more than 15 minutes in three straight games.
That's his sweet spot: He's generated three shots or more in 68% of his games (27/40) when logging at least 15 minutes of ice time.
I don't love targeting the low-event Kraken for shots, but this is worth an exception. They're on the road in a back-to-back situation and missing multiple forwards (most notably Andre Burakovsky and Alex Wennberg) due to injury or trade-related scratches.
Kraken games also tend to be higher-paced away from Seattle. Their road games feature 5.9 more shots per game than their home games - the biggest road boost of any NHL team.
As long as Vilardi remains out, I like Ehlers in this spot. But wait until closer to game time for certainty on Vilardi's status.
Odds: -140 (playable to -160)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.