NHL weekend betting guide: What's a goal saved worth toward winning probability?

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Since we figured out how much a goal matters to the likelihood of victory earlier this week, you can turn to the person you're watching the game with, high-five, and yell "12.5%!" in celebration amid the horn and your favorite team's goal song.

Scoring is an obvious way to boost a team's chances of winning, but while we know a big save helps, it's harder to quantify how much - as you exhale after a breakaway stop or a turned-away one-timer.

Last week, we listed the goaltenders who matter within their team - where there's a difference from the theoretical No.1 to the backup - measured by advanced metric GSAx. We made our arbitrary cutoff a differential of 0.2, but what does that mean to a team's likelihood of winning?

Goaltending Valuation

If the primary aim is to score four goals, the other part of the equation should be to prevent the opponent from getting four themselves. Therefore, every goal saved above expected (GSAx) contributes 12.5% toward a team win in the same way a goal scored improves a team's chances by 12.5%. As a primer, let's look at some of the best individual goaltending efforts this week.

Daniil Tarasov was great, but Cayden Primeau was better Tuesday in Montreal. Sam Montembeault did everything he could as the Canadiens forced overtime against the much better Bruins. Karel Vejmelka deserved better, but Wild skaters dominated the Coyotes with a 70% expected goal share and a 12-3 high-danger chance ratio at five-on-five. The other five games where a goaltender stood out led to the Blues beating the Kings and Bruins, the Devils blowing out the Stars, and the Senators snapping a seven-game skid.

That's a change of pace in Ottawa, as they've gotten the worst goaltending this year with a collective -31.22 GSAx in 62 contests (as of March 11). Allowing a half-goal per game more than a replacement-level goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, Anton Forsberg, and Mads Sogaard have hurt the Senators' win probability by an average of 6.25% before the puck drops. Theoretically, at -6.25% implied win probability, they've hurt Ottawa's chances more than all but six skaters help their team's cause, according to market evaluations of NHL stars.

Since the betting market couldn't have predicted it would be that bad, Ottawa bettors have been buying the Sens at a -EV (expected value) price. With tax time around the corner and no relief for the nearly $10 million the Sens have spent on goaltenders against the salary cap, the only write-off coming in Ottawa is this season as a whole.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.