Vezina Trophy Rankings: Can Shesterkin barge onto podium?

Welcome to the fifth in-season edition of theScore's 2023-24 Vezina Trophy rankings, a monthly look at the top goaltenders across the NHL.

This month features a pair of newcomers, including one in the top three. Meanwhile, an injury to one of this season's top contenders might seal up the hardware for the netminder occupying the top spot for the third month in a row.

GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected

5. Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

Previous rank: N/A

Shesterkin appears on this list for the first time since November, and no goalie has been hotter than the 2022 Vezina winner lately. Since our previous edition on Feb. 7, Shesterkin has won nine of 11 starts, recording three shutouts and a .951 save percentage. He also leads the league with 17.25 goals saved above expected over that span.

His hot stretch has vaulted him into the top 10 in wins, save percentage, and goals against average on the season. He has a long way to go to fully erase his uncharacteristically average start to the campaign, but this is a good start. If he maintains his February form and the Rangers remain atop the Metropolitan Division, Shesterkin will surely garner some consideration for hardware.

4. Jeremy Swayman, Bruins

Previous rank: 5th

Statistically, Swayman has overtaken Linus Ullmark as Boston's No. 1 option between the pipes. The Bruins' star duo is clearly quite fond of each other - as evidenced by their routine post-win hugs - but the amicable time split is a blessing and a curse in Swayman's Vezina Trophy candidacy. It's great for Swayman and the Bruins that he appears comfortable being the guy for a top team with only 125 games of NHL experience, but sharing the crease is a major deterrent to winning the Vezina.

Ullmark, of course, accomplished the feat in 2023, but his numbers were far superior to his peers'. Swayman doesn't have the same sort of edge this time around. Still, he's earned his spot on this list by ranking top 10 in all the criteria above. A Vezina Trophy could very well be in Swayman's near future, but not quite yet.

3. Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers

Previous rank: N/A

Bobrovsky's resurgence since last year's playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable. After carrying the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final with one of the most lights-out goalie heaters in recent memory, the 35-year-old has produced his best regular season since signing his much-maligned megadeal in 2019. Bobrovsky has played a huge role in transforming the franchise from a Cinderella story to the top team in the Eastern Conference.

He hadn't made our list before now, but like Shesterkin, Bobrovsky's taken his game to a new level over the past month. His numbers since Feb. 7 are nearly identical to his Rangers counterpart, but the Panthers' netminder has better stats over the course of the season, sitting top five in wins, save percentage, and goals against average. Bobrovsky already has two Vezina wins in his 14-year career. At the rate he's going, he's making a decent case to become the 13th goalie in league history to earn a third.

2. Thatcher Demko, Canucks

Previous rank: 2nd

Demko's marvellous season hit a major roadblock recently, as he's been ruled out two-to-three weeks with a knee injury. His absence will either severely hinder his Vezina odds or bolster his case by showing how important he is to Vancouver's success if it struggles while he's out.

Demko's case has been cut and dry since October: He's among the league leaders in every major statistical category and is the backbone of a first-place team. He still has a tremendous chance to be a finalist by the summer, but his upcoming stretch in the press box may have ruined any hopes of usurping our No. 1 candidate.

1. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous rank: 1st

It's Hellebuyck's award to lose now. He leads the league in save percentage, goals saved above average, and goals saved above expected while sitting top five in starts, wins, and shutouts. The Jets are a strong defensive team, but Hellebuyck is far and away their MVP as they chase down the Central Division title.

According to Evolving-Hockey's standing points above replacement metric, which assigns a total value to an individual player's contributions to his team's success, Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the league at 11.9 this season. The runner-up, Joey Daccord of the Kraken, is at 8.9. Bobrovsky (8.6), Swayman (8.5), Demko (7.1), and Shesterkin (5.7) all rank in the top 15, but Winnipeg's backbone is in a class of his own and should be rewarded accordingly at season's end.

(Stats source: Evolving-Hockey)