Josi, Ovechkin to fire away Thursday night
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Wednesday was a mixed bag on the ice. We split our player props but dropped the over between the Lightning and Maple Leafs. It was pacing well with four goals scored in the first 29 minutes, but the two sides unfortunately combined to find the back of the net once over the final 31.
We'll look to get back on track with three props for Thursday's massive slate.
Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots
Ovechkin let us down last time out, falling one shot shy in a blowout loss to the Sabres. I like his chances of getting back on track against the Penguins.
The Penguins rank bottom 10 in shot suppression since the trade deadline. They've been most susceptible to giving up volume vs. wingers, slotting 26th in shots against them in that span. It's their worst ranking against any position group.
This is a good matchup for Ovechkin in a game with massive playoff implications. He should get plenty of ice since he's logged 19 minutes or more in five of the past six games. The Capitals are leaning on their captain with the season on the line.
Ovechkin's recorded four shots or more in 62% of his games when logging at least 19 minutes dating back to last season. He's also surpassed his shot total in four of the past five against the Penguins.
Odds: -114 (playable to -130)
Bo Horvat: Over 2.5 shots
The Blue Jackets have bled shots all season and show no signs of defensive improvement. They rank dead last in shot suppression over the past 10 games in all game situations.
That's good news for Horvat and the go-to Islanders shooters. Horvat's excelled against poor defensive teams, combining for 13 shots over recent games against the Blackhawks, Devils, and Red Wings.
He should have no problem working his way into shooting areas against the Blue Jackets. Horvat's feasted on them over the past couple of seasons, going over his total in six of the last seven head-to-head matchups, including both games this season.
With the Islanders in a heated playoff race, Horvat should see a full workload in a very advantageous matchup.
Odds: -140 (playable to -155)
Roman Josi: Over 3.5 shots
Josi has extreme home/road splits. He's generated 3.7 shots per game on 8.2 attempts in Nashville and has gone over this line 57% of the time.
His numbers are much lower on the road, where he's averaged 2.8 shots on 6.4 attempts while posting a putrid 27% success rate.
Josi is back home Thursday and has a great matchup against the Blues, who rank 30th in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games and have played at one of the league's highest paces.
The Blues have struggled mightily against opposing defensemen, allowing more shots to the position than all but Columbus and Detroit in the past 10 games.
With home ice and a pace-up spot against a team that bleeds shots, Josi's primed for an active shooting performance.
Odds: -122 (playable to -135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.