Predicting top 5 scorers of 2024-25 NHL season

A fresh NHL season is about to get underway, meaning the scoring race is about to start anew.

In this exercise, we attempt to predict the five players who'll be in the running for the Art Ross Trophy. A whopping nine players hit the 100-point mark in 2023-24. Is it greedy if we ask for double digits in 2024-25? Maybe!

These rankings are dominated by familiar faces, but hey, what do you want us to do? These guys are freaks of nature. Let's get to it.

5. Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs

2023-24 stats

It just wouldn't feel right to overlook the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy favorite.

Matthews not only handily won the goal-scoring race in 2023-24 (he was 12 clear of Sam Reinhart, who was bolstered by a 24.5% shooting percentage), but he also joined Doug Gilmour and Darryl Sittler as the only Maple Leafs to ever record two 100-point seasons.

This time around, all eyes will be on the sniper's pursuit of 70 goals. There are plenty of reasons to believe Matthews can be the first player since 1992-93 (and ninth ever) to hit the lofty mark this upcoming season. He fell just one shy last season and established a new salary-cap era record for most tallies in a single campaign. Matthews will be 27 years old once 2024-25 gets underway, meaning he's firmly in his prime. Oh, and he's going to have a new, shiny "C" on his chest after taking over for John Tavares as Toronto's captain earlier this summer. How's that for extra motivation?

Though this list is technically about predicting the top point-getters, if Matthews hits 70 goals, he'll probably be among them. He fell just three points outside the top five in 2023-24.

4. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers

2023-24 stats

Though Matthews will be the highest-paid player in 2024-25 with a $13.25-million cap hit, he won't hold that distinction for long. Draisaitl secured his bag this offseason and will be making $14 million annually starting in 2025-26.

It's easy to see why Edmonton was comfortable forking out that much cash to retain the superstar's services for the foreseeable future. Draisaitl has been among the league's top-five point-getters in five of the last six seasons. He missed out in 2023-24 but still posted his third consecutive 100-point campaign and finished four points outside the top five.

The German - like the Oilers as a whole - was hampered by a slow start to the year. He posted a dazzling 91 points in 68 games after Edmonton made a coaching change in mid-November, good for the fifth most in the league over that span.

After putting pen to paper in the summer, Draisaitl will be free from any pesky rumors regarding his looming contract status. When asked about the pressure that comes with inking a huge deal, Draisaitl gave a chills-inducing response that should have 31 other teams shaking in their boots: "It's not pressure, it's responsibility."

3. Nikita Kucherov, Lightning

2023-24 stats

Kucherov won the points race for the second time last season, meaning the Art Ross Trophy finally went somewhere that wasn't Edmonton for the first time since 2019.

It was a masterclass campaign for the Russian superstar: Kucherov led the league in power-play points, and his 91 points at even strength ranked second, trailing only the next player on this list by one. He was already known for his playmaking, but it was on a new level in 2023-24, as he became just the fifth player in NHL history to record 100 assists in a single season.

Kucherov will undoubtedly rack up the points again this year, but there's one thing keeping him from the top two spots on our podium: He no longer has frequent collaborator Steven Stamkos to play with. Of course, Kucherov is plenty talented on his own and Jake Guentzel is no slouch, but Kuch and Stammer spent 10 years carefully crafting their top-notch chemistry.

Last season, Stamkos assisted on 14 of Kucherov's goals - good for the highest share on the team - while Kucherov logged an assist on 28 of Stamkos' 40 tallies. The biggest hit may come on the man advantage, as the ex-Bolts captain helped out on eight of Kucherov's 13 power-play goals and the creative winger assisted on all but two of Stamkos' 19.

2. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

2023-24 stats

MacKinnon finally got the credit he deserves by winning the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award as the undisputed MVP of the 2023-24 regular season, and we think he's going to carry that momentum forward.

Yes, it might be a lot to ask for the Avalanche stud to turn around and establish new career highs after he just became the first player in franchise history to hit 140 points in a season, but MacKinnon's got an ace up his sleeve.

After two long years away from the game, Gabriel Landeskog appears set to return to the NHL. Once he gets back up to speed, it wouldn't be surprising if the Avalanche reunited their three-headed monster line of Landeskog, MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, which ran rampant for five seasons. Landeskog is also coming back to a more dangerous MacKinnon, who has registered back-to-back 100-point campaigns while the captain has been away.

Even if the Avalanche opt to keep Landeskog on a different line, having their heart and soul back will undoubtedly provide a huge morale boost. That's a dangerous thing for MacKinnon to have, seeing as he just paced the league with a whopping 92 points at even strength and trailed only Kucherov in the Art Ross Trophy race. We wouldn't rule out a 150-point season.

1. Connor McDavid, Oilers

2023-24 stats

I mean, who in their right mind would bet against McDavid right now?

The man is so motivated heading into the 2024-25 season that it's scary. McDavid and the Oilers were just one victory away from lifting the Stanley Cup this past spring, and the superstar became the sixth player in history to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as a member of the losing side. He didn't hit the ice to collect the hardware, but can you blame him? McDavid put up an insane 42 points in 25 games - trailing only Mario Lemieux (1991) and Wayne Gretzky (1985, 1988) for the most in a single postseason - but it wasn't enough to win it all. That has to sting.

McDavid is fearsome enough without the extra motivation. He's a five-time winner of the Art Ross Trophy and took home the honor for three straight years from 2021 to 2023. Only Gretzky (10), Lemieux (six), and Gordie Howe (six) have more Art Ross Trophies to their name.

The league's undisputed best player posted his fourth consecutive 100-point season in 2023-24 and hit the 100-assist mark two days before Kucherov did. McDavid recorded 41 multi-point outings and was only held without a point 12 times. He's automatic, and it's terrifying.

It might not seem fair to expect McDavid to keep outdoing himself, but he's constantly resetting the bar. We can't wait to see what he does next.

Honorable mentions

• Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers
• David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
• Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche