Ranking NHL teams by tiers: The top 16
This is Part 2 of a series ranking all 32 NHL teams by tiers for the 2024-25 season. Part 1 features the bottom 16 teams and was published Friday.
Keep in mind: This exercise rolls out roughly two weeks before training camps open, and tiers are based on personal projections for only the coming season, not each franchise's long-term trajectory. Tier 8 teams are furthest away from winning the 2025 Stanley Cup, while Tier 1 teams are closest. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Tier 4: Moderately dangerous
Probable playoff team unlikely to go on a deep run
Boston Bruins
There's a lot to like about the Bruins.
They have high-end talent on the wing (David Pastrnak), blue line (Charlie McAvoy), and in goal (Jeremy Swayman). Recent signee Elias Lindholm and 2023-24 breakout player Charlie Coyle offer a satisfactory 1-2 punch down the middle. The defense corps is versatile and dependable.
What to dislike: captain Brad Marchand, 36, is coming off three offseason surgeries; the NHL's best goaltending tandem was split up after the Linus Ullmark-Joonas Korpisalo trade; numerous questions marks surround the bottom-six forwards; and the overall strength of the Atlantic Division.
Mash it all up and you get a playoff team, sure, but not a contender.
New York Islanders
The Islanders improved a tad. Washed-up grinders Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin were replaced by speedster Anthony Duclair and 25-year-old undrafted free agent Maxim Tsyplakov, who bagged 31 goals in 65 KHL games last year.
Otherwise, not much changed on Long Island.
This is a team with a relatively high floor - the Isles are a near lock to make the playoffs as a lower Metropolitan Division seed or wild card. It's also a team with a relatively low ceiling - a deep playoff run's unlikely. I state that nervously, knowing goalie Ilya Sorokin is fully capable of carrying the Isles on his back.
It's also Patrick Roy's first training camp and full season behind the bench.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles landed in Tier 4 because it won't be overly difficult for its solid collection of players - led by captain Anze Kopitar - to nab a playoff spot.
However, I feel like the Kings are generally pointed in the wrong direction. They looked horrible against the Oilers in the playoffs. Then, in an uninspiring move, general manager Rob Blake took the interim tag off coach Jim Hiller. (Is Hiller really the answer?) As for the roster, the offseason saw plenty of turnover, but the amount of talent added doesn't equal the talent subtracted.
Most notably, a goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and David Rittich is suspect at best. Expect this season to end in familiar fashion: first-round exit.
Tampa Bay Lightning
You can't accuse Lightning GM Julien BriseBois of resting on his laurels.
Three years removed from repeating as champions, Tampa Bay bid farewell to franchise icon Steven Stamkos while bringing in a younger, more effective goal-scoring winger in Jake Guentzel. BriseBois shipped out another core piece in defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, essentially reallocating the Russian's cap hit (plus some) and minutes with two D-men in Ryan McDonagh and J.J. Moser. There was some tinkering around the edges of the roster, too.
For all that, the 2024-25 Lightning aren't substantially better or worse than 2023-24. They're still a top-heavy squad whose success will be largely dependent on the performance of five players: Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. It's hard to say for sure how much juice is left in that crew, with their ages ranging from 28 to 33.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks blew away expectations last season, securing 109 points and the Pacific Division's No. 1 seed. Some of that outsized success was driven by a league-high 10.6 shooting percentage at five-on-five. But the bulk of it was the product of individual excellence and overall cohesion.
Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and Thatcher Demko combine for an enviable top of the lineup. I also like most of Vancouver's second-tier guys, namely offseason addition Jake DeBrusk and Hughes' defense partner, Filip Hronek. The club has some real gem role players like Dakota Joshua, Conor Garland, and Carson Soucy, too.
What stopped me from slotting the Canucks in Tier 3 was slight scoring regression and uncertainty around Demko. They need a healthy No. 1 goalie.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is a difficult team to get a firm handle on right now.
The Golden Knights boast, in my opinion, the finest defense corps in the NHL. They're absolutely stacked at center with Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, and Nic Roy. And like they showed two years ago, they can play a style under coach Bruce Cassidy that's conducive to winning the Cup in the modern era.
However, I'm tempering 2024-25 expectations because all the bold moves made by the front office over the past few years have started to catch up to them. The forward group as a whole isn't special after the departures of Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, William Carrier, and Michael Amadio. Further, best all-around player Mark Stone has struggled to stay in the lineup in his 30s. There's a wide range of outcomes for Vegas.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets were quiet in free agency, as usual. Depth defenseman Colin Miller and backup goalie Kaapo Kahkonen (a downgrade from Laurent Brossoit) were the two additions of note. Meanwhile, Sean Monahan's gone.
With Monahan now at center for Columbus, Winnipeg may be forced to use Vlad Namestnikov in a top-six role behind Mark Scheifele. And with all due respect to Namestnikov, a useful bottom-six center, that's a suboptimal situation for a club otherwise built to make playoff noise.
The loss of Tyler Toffoli will be mitigated by a breakout year from Cole Perfetti.
The Jets are the Western equivalent of the Bruins. Good - often very good, in fact - but rarely great. Both are missing a Cup-contending gear.
Tier 3: Scary at full potential
Cup win not out of question, though a lot must fall into place
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes own a .664 points percentage since Rod Brind'Amour took over as coach six seasons ago, second among 32 teams. Expect Carolina to once again challenge for the Metropolitan's top seed.
However, a spot in the Cup Final - which has eluded Carolina in the Brind'Amour era - doesn't feel materially closer today than it did in the spring.
Even after rejigging the defense corps over the offseason, the Canes remain extremely deep - strong lines, one through four; strong pairs, one through three. But they haven't fixed their problems. Goaltending remains a mystery and they need another high-end finisher up front.
The Canes brought in proven scorer Guentzel at last season's trade deadline, but Guentzel's gone and none of the new forwards can replace his production. Internal growth from Marty Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, and Seth Jarvis could offset the loss. Or maybe Carolina acquires another stud midseason. For now, they're just shy of true Cup contender status.
Nashville Predators
The Predators are a trendy team. They had a killer 2023-24 second half, as far as wins and losses, underlying numbers, and vibes. Then GM Barry Trotz went nuts on Day 1 of free agency, spending $108.5 million on three players.
An unexceptional franchise for the bulk of its existence, Nashville's suddenly an alpha dog. The lineup has two threatening forward lines, with Ryan O'Reilly and Tommy Novak down the middle and Filip Forsberg, Stamkos, Marchessault, and Gustav Nyquist on the wings. The bottom two lines feature a few fun youngsters. Perennial Norris Trophy challenger Roman Josi leads a balanced blue line. Juuse Saros is a quality starting goalie.
With Dallas and Colorado in the same division, I'm not convinced everything falls perfectly into place this season. But the Preds are set to win a playoff series.
New Jersey Devils
Last year was a flukey one for the Devils.
No. 1 defenseman Dougie Hamilton was sidelined for 62 games, his usual partner Jonas Siegenthaler missed 25, and superstar center Jack Hughes was out for 20. Timo Meier and Ondrej Palat, two relatively recent acquisitions, had down years offensively. Four goalies started at least 10 games and none were any good. They finished with 81 points, 10 from the playoff cutline.
Slotting New Jersey in Tier 3, thus crowning it one of the NHL's nine best teams, assumes four things: the Devils' luck will turn; their new coach Sheldon Keefe will hit the ground running; their offseason makeover between the pipes and on the back end will work out; and their young guns (Jack and Luke Hughes, Dawson Mercer, and Simon Nemec) will level up substantially.
That's a lot of assumptions, but I'm willing to take a leap of faith with the Devils. They'll hit triple digits in points and do some damage in the playoffs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
On one hand, the Maple Leafs are definitely different. Craig Berube replaces Keefe as coach. Auston Matthews replaces John Tavares as captain. The blue line's been upgraded while the forward group's lost juice.
On the other hand, it's the same old story. Toronto remains a top-heavy squad with four of the league's 12 highest cap hits. Already holding the longest active playoff streak, they'll make it 10 in a row next spring.
Pressure will be impossibly high to finally go on a deep run and once and for all change the narrative around the uber-talented but underachieving core.
What would go a long way in advancing past the second round: winning their division for the first time since 1999-2000 (the pandemic-created North Division doesn't count); getting an outsized impact from Berube's coaching style and tactics; and, of course, clutch performances from franchise pillars.
Tier 2: Secondary Cup favorite
Elite title-contending team with minor concerns
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche check every box of a legitimate Cup contender.
Transcendent talents at center and defense: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Elite winger: Mikko Rantanen. Smart and versatile support players. Good enough goaltending. World-class coaching. History of playoff success.
Colorado, which won the Cup in 2022 with roughly the same core, would fit nicely in Tier 1 if not for uncertainty surrounding two key players.
Top-line winger Gabriel Landeskog is trying to return to the NHL at some point this season after taking a couple of years off to rehab a wonky knee. If Landeskog does complete the comeback, how effective will he be? Power forward Valeri Nichushkin is suspended without pay until at least November for violating the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Assuming the Russian suits up for the Avs this year, what kind of impact will he make?
Dallas Stars
The Stars have an unmatched blend of veteran contributors (think Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin) and young guns. Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Logan Stankoven, and Mavrik Bourque all have incredible upside, and 25-year-old core pieces Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen are elite.
GM Jim Nill has put on a clinic in short- and long-term team building.
At this point in this exercise, though, powerhouse teams are vulnerable to nitpicks, and I worry about Dallas' blue-line depth and, to a lesser extent, goalie Jake Oettinger's roller-coaster results. While I still believe Oettinger's a good No. 1, the underwhelming third pair of Brendan Smith and Matt Dumba/Nils Lundkvist should probably be upgraded around the trade deadline.
Again: Nitpicks, not major problems. The Stars are a handful.
Tier 1: Primary Cup favorite
Star-studded, deep, battle-tested - simply a cut above the rest
Edmonton Oilers
The simplest way to assess the 2024-25 Oilers: the roster has basically the same value as the team that lost Game 7 of the Cup Final by a single goal.
Yes, it stung Edmonton to lose Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to offer sheets. But the changes made at forward (Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, and Vasili Podkolzin in; Ryan McLeod, Holloway, and Warren Foegele out) amount to a slight upgrade. And the changes made on defense (Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher in; Broberg and Cody Ceci out) amount to a slight downgrade.
Superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still firmly in their primes. Evan Bouchard is a game-changer on the blue line. Goalie Stuart Skinner is fine when supported. The Oilers want to finish the job in 2024-25 - and can.
Florida Panthers
Any Cup winner that retains its difference-makers deserves a spot in Tier 1.
Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk. Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling, and Sergei Bobrovsky all remain Panthers. Except Bobrovsky, they're all under 30. Also still around: Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues, Anton Lundell, and others down the depth chart.
The losses of Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Vladimir Tarasenko will be felt because their replacements simply aren't as talented and reliable. But I have full confidence in Florida GM Bill Zito and his ability to wheel and deal midseason. The Panthers have the nucleus to repeat in the cap era, like the 2015-17 Penguins and 2019-21 Lightning before them.
New York Rangers
The Rangers are the reigning Presidents' Trophy winner and East finalist and they're running back a nearly identical roster. That makes them a significant contender.
My lone gripe: they've relied offensively a little too much on the power play.
That small concern should be muted by Alexis Lafreniere inevitably levelling up again. I think the 2020 first overall pick hits stardom in his fifth NHL season.
The Rangers' other top forwards aren't young, but unlike Pittsburgh, they're in their early 30s, not late, which means the chances of sharp decline are slim. The bottom six is filled with useful role players. Adam Fox, on the shortlist for best defenseman not named Makar, can control games. Igor Shesterkin is an A-list goalie. The list goes on and on. New York is right there.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).