Calder Trophy Rankings: Michkov leads Celebrini-less field

The first month of the 2024-25 NHL season is in the books, which means it's time to assess the state of the Calder Trophy race.

Plenty of rookies are turning heads in the early days of the campaign, but one big name is missing from the first edition of these rankings: 2024 first overall pick Macklin Celebrini.

Celebrini was outstanding in his NHL debut and picked up his first goal and assist, but he hasn't played since due to a hip injury. Though all signs point to him returning to the lineup soon, we had to omit him this time. However, we fully expect him to get into the mix next month.

With that out of the way, let's get to it.

5. Dustin Wolf, Flames

The rebuilding Flames have fizzled out a bit since their 5-0-1 start to the season, but that doesn't make Wolf's performance any less impressive. He started three games over that surprising run and posted a sterling .936 save percentage while picking up a win in every appearance.

On the whole, the 23-year-old has saved 1.69 goals above average at all strengths. That's nothing to scoff at, seeing as Calgary has allowed him to face at least 30 shots in all but one of his starts. Wolf also boasts a solid .870 high-danger save percentage at five-on-five, which ranks seventh in the league among all goalies to play at least 200 minutes this campaign.

Of course, we can't assess Wolf's Calder case without looking at the Flames' plan for him this season. So far, he's split starts with running mate Dan Vladar, and both have been strong. Though Wolf is the undisputed future of the Flames' crease, we don't blame the team for not heaping tons of responsibility on the rookie's shoulders in his first full season. However, if Wolf keeps putting up strong numbers, he'll be in contention for the hardware even while sharing the pipes.

4. Joel Blomqvist, Penguins

Pittsburgh isn't an easy team to tend the goal for right now, but Blomqvist has done well despite having zero NHL experience before this season. The 22-year-old paces all rookie goalies in goals saved above average (3.05) and above expected (1.04) at all strengths and probably deserves more than the two wins he's gotten. He's lost his last three starts, but they came against the Hurricanes, Oilers, and Wild. Blomqvist was particularly excellent against Edmonton when he faced 50 shots - the most out of any goalie this campaign.

When we say the Penguins don't make life easy for him, we mean it. Blomqvist has seen the eighth-most high-danger shots against (51) at five-on-five among all goalies in the league, and everyone above him has appeared in at least two more games. Despite that, he's posted an admirable .863 save percentage in those situations.

Like Wolf, Blomqvist's argument for Calder consideration hinges on how much he plays. Tristan Jarry has been a disaster, but he's basically untradeable by this point, so Pittsburgh may be stuck with him. Alex Nedeljkovic, meanwhile, is healthy and has won his last two starts.

By the way, Blomqvist's nickname is Blomma, the Swedish word for flower. Just figured we'd point that out for no particular reason.

3. Lane Hutson, Canadiens

Hutson has been a lightning rod for debate lately. On one end, the fans are hyping him up as the next big thing. On the other, detractors have already branded him as "overrated."

What's undeniable is that Hutson comes with bucketloads of potential. He leads all rookie defensemen in points and paces the entire class in average ice time (more on that later). At 5-foot-9, Hutson isn't the most physically imposing blue-liner, but that hasn't proven to be an issue in the early goings. With his strong transitional play and offensive talent, Hutson may just head fake his way into the running for the Calder.

Of course, there are warts. After all, he's a 20-year-old rearguard adjusting to the NHL, and the Canadiens are heaping plenty of tough assignments onto his plate. As a result, his defensive numbers aren't the greatest, but Montreal as a team isn't doing a good job keeping the puck out of its net at five-on-five.

One thing to keep an eye on is if Hutson gets the keys to the first power-play unit, a job that currently belongs to Mike Matheson.

2. Logan Stankoven, Stars

Stankoven might be the most experienced NHL rookie out there this season.

The Stars got him into 24 regular-season games in 2023-24, and he impressed with six goals and 14 points. Dallas trusted Stankoven enough to throw him into all 19 of their playoff contests. He responded with eight points during the team's run to the conference finals.

Stankoven has continued to take strides in the early days of the new campaign. He leads all rookies in points and assists while skating on the Stars' top line. Stankoven has done most of his damage at even strength, pacing the class with seven points in those situations.

The 21-year-old may only have one goal to his name this season, but that's largely due to a meager shooting rate of 3.7%. For comparison, his shooting percentage was 11.8 last campaign, scoring 24 goals in 47 AHL outings. It isn't through lack of trying, as Stankoven ranks second on the Stars with 27 shots.

Holding Stankoven back from the top spot on the first edition of these rankings is that he plays for a contending team and is surrounded by more talent than the No. 1 guy, who's drawing plenty of eyes in his own right.

1. Matvei Michkov, Flyers

Flyers general manager Danny Briere tried to temper expectations ahead of Michkov's first NHL campaign. Hell, the 2023 seventh overall pick isn't even supposed to be here yet, as he had three more seasons on his KHL contract when Philadelphia drafted him.

It appears Michkov didn't get that message.

The Russian winger leads all rookies in goals and trails only Stankoven in points despite being 19 years old. And he's still adjusting to North American ice. All while learning English.

The Flyers thought Michkov would instantly help their abysmal power play, and they were right. The youngster tops the team with six points on the man advantage, which has operated at a 19.1% success rate. That's at least an improvement from 2023-24, when Philly finished dead last at 12.2%.

Of course, you'd like to see more even-strength production from Michkov, but it's early, and Philadelphia is a mess at five-on-five. All in, Michkov did enough to be named the NHL's Rookie of the Month for October. Let's see what November brings.

Keep an eye on:

• Justus Annunen, Avalanche
• Jackson Blake, Hurricanes
• Macklin Celebrini, Sharks
• Cutter Gauthier, Ducks
• Maxim Tsyplakov, Islanders

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)