Puck-stopping pains, Reinhart lapping Hyman, & more: 5 intriguing trends

The NHL season zoomed by the quarter-point mark Saturday.

As of Wednesday morning, 345 of 1,312 total games are in the books.

Let's bounce around the league and discuss five intriguing Q1 trends.

Modern shooters continue reign

Pour one out for the goaltending fraternity.

The average save percentage among NHL goalies is down to .901 from .903 last year. The small dip is notable mostly because it's part of a larger trend: 2024-25 is on track to be the ninth straight season in which the league-wide SV% has declined. The average SV% in 2014-15 and 2015-16 was .915.

There's a bunch of driving forces behind this macro trend. The crackdowns on slashing and cross-checking have given puck carriers more freedom; early goalie pulls have led to more 6-on-5 and 5-on-6 goals; a generation of shooters who grew up with skills coaches and enhanced sticks have infiltrated the league; expanding to 32 teams has diluted the talent pool; and so on.

What's interesting about this season in particular is that shots on goal have dropped below 29 a team per game for the first time since 2003-04, according to Hockey Reference. The drop aligns with what we're seeing on a nightly basis: NHL clubs no longer fire pucks on net for the hell of it. They're limiting long-range shots, instead prioritizing high-end scoring chances from the slot.

More than ever, offenses are relying on east-west passing to move the goalie laterally and create holes to shoot through. Net-front play has also become sophisticated, with offensive players providing perfectly timed flash-screens and tips versus simply standing in front of the goalie anticipating a shot.

New top goal-scorer incoming?

Here's the full list of Rocket Richard Trophy winners since the last lockout:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Auston Matthews
• Connor McDavid
• Sidney Crosby
• David Pastrnak

That's it.

Ovechkin and Matthews, the only multi-time winners, have combined for nine solo goal-scoring titles and one shared title over a 12-year span. (Ovechkin and Pastrnak tied at 48 goals in the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season.)

Both have battled injury this season, with Ovechkin out until at least mid-December after breaking his leg last week and Matthews still on the mend from a mysterious upper-body ailment that's sidelined him for most of November.

Meanwhile, Pastrnak and Crosby have each bagged just eight goals in 23 games, while McDavid's recorded 11 in 19 games, missing three to injury.

All of this to say: there's a decent chance the Rocket goes to someone new.

Ovechkin's one off the league lead right now, adding 15 goals to his illustrious resume. But Leon Draisaitl and Sam Reinhart (16), William Nylander and Mikko Rantanen (14), and Connor McMichael, Nico Hischier, Kirill Kaprizov, and Kyle Connor (13) are all primed to leave him in the dust.

Brayden Point, who's up to 12 goals in 16 games for Tampa Bay, is another sniper to monitor. Point's missed four games but trails only Ovechkin in goals per game (0.75) among the 30 players who've scored 10 or more.

Different encores for Reinhart, Hyman

Reinhart, 29, and Zach Hyman, 32, aren't identical players. Yet a few similarities lumped the right-handed wingers together heading into 2024-25.

Both exploded last year for 50-plus goals; Edmonton's Hyman finished with 70 tallies between the regular season and playoffs and Florida's Reinhart reached 67 after notching the Stanley Cup-winning goal against the Oilers. Both are strong defensive players, usually skate with a superstar center, and are known for burying pucks from the offensive zone's high-danger areas.

Seven weeks in, Reinhart's on track for his first 60-goal regular season and Hyman - who has three goals in 20 games - is on pace for 12. What gives?

Reinhart's underlying statistical profile hasn't changed in any meaningful way year over year. Hyman, on the other hand, is generating significantly less offense on a per-game basis, which suggests his failed attempt at an encore isn't merely a product of poor puck luck. He's lost some of his O-zone mojo.

Here's Hyman's league-wide rankings over the past two seasons in five Sportlogiq metrics that connect directly with his crease-crashing scorer role:

The rankings for inner-slot shots and puck recoveries off rebounds stand out. Hyman was a world-class menace in 2023-24 at 2.01 inner-slot shots and 1.41 recoveries per game. Hyman this season has been a good but not great menace at 1.15 inner-slot shots and 1.2 recoveries.

As for puck luck - a legitimate factor here - Hyman's converting on a career-low 5.9% of his shots while Reinhart's scoring on a career-high 27.6%. Both should regress to the mean as the year moves along.

Leafs' Stolarz thriving in elevated role

Anthony Stolarz has been a pleasant surprise - a goalie who's not only showing well on the surface (eye test, basic stats) but also beneath it.

The Maple Leafs netminder owns a 7-3-2 record, .927 SV% (second in the NHL), and 2.18 goals-against average (tied for second). The skaters in front of Stolarz and partner Joseph Woll share credit for those impressive numbers. After all, Toronto's a top-10 defensive team under new coach Craig Berube.

Two Sportlogiq metrics do a better job capturing Stolarz's impact.

The 30-year-old leads NHL netminders with 1.21 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. Translation: Stolarz has saved roughly a goal more per game on average than he should have based on the defensive environment.

Stolarz is also first in quality start percentage, after signing a two-year, $5-million contract with Toronto in the offseason. A quality start's assigned when a goalie posts a "positive goals saved above expected value" in a game. Stolarz's earned a positive value - outplayed his environment, in other words - in 11 of 12 starts, grading out to a sparkling 91.7% quality start rate.

Talk about reliability - and at a position known for its instability in Toronto.

What should be most encouraging to the Leafs and their fan base is that Stolarz isn't new to the NHL. He put up solid numbers as a backup in Anaheim and Florida. The preseason uncertainty around Stolarz revolved around sustainability and workload. Could he perform at a high level in an elevated, high-pressure role? So far, the answer is yes. A definitive yes.

Stolarz's emergence is also giving Team USA general manager Bill Guerin something to think about for February's 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. Rosters are due Monday. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck is a lock as one of three goalies, and Dallas' Jake Oettinger is most likely the second guy.

An injury to Vancouver's Thatcher Demko and poor play from Boston's Jeremy Swayman complicates the decision-making process for the final spot. Stolarz has played his way into the USA conversation, at the very least.

Have-nots and sleeping giants

With due respect to Minnesota and Nashville, Winnipeg and Pittsburgh are the two teams leaping off the NHL standings page at U.S. Thanksgiving. The vibes are immaculate around the Jets - what an unbelievable first 22 games. "Unbelievable" is also a fitting word for whatever the Penguins have become.

A couple of notes on 18-4-0 Winnipeg: the Presidents' Trophy front-runner enjoyed a relatively easy first-quarter schedule and its power play has been unsustainably hot (33.9%). Otherwise, captain Adam Lowry and crew have amassed a plus-37 goal differential through balanced scoring, a bulletproof defensive structure, and Hart Trophy-caliber goaltending from Hellebuyck.

The Jets look a top-shelf Cup contender - a truly elite team. Full stop.

The 7-12-4 Pens, who own a league-worst minus-34 goal differential, were no one's Cup pick heading into the season, but things have gone from meh to putrid in a hurry. Aside from the odd throwback performance from Crosby, Pittsburgh's basically unwatchable. The roster's fundamentally flawed and coach Mike Sullivan is no longer getting through to his players.

Eight of 32 teams hold a .650 points percentage or higher.

The Western Conference's upper echelon includes Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Dallas in the Central, and Vegas in the Pacific. The East's includes Carolina, Washington, and New Jersey in the Metropolitan, and Toronto in the Atlantic.

This dynamic's created a have-have not scenario in the East. Florida, Tampa Bay, and the Rangers are second-tier squads based on the standings, leaving a whopping seven teams to battle for the final wild-card spot (Pittsburgh and Montreal are in their own bottom-feeders tier). Who among Buffalo, Boston, the Islanders, Philadelphia, Columbus, Detroit, and Ottawa is actually going to snatch the final spot? Right now, the Sabres are the smart pick.

Meanwhile, the West may have a couple of sleeping giants. Edmonton and Colorado - two star-studded preseason Cup favorites - occupy the final wild card spot and ninth in the conference. Both clubs absolutely should make the postseason, and probably will. Then, once the puck drops on the first round, all bets are off in series featuring McDavid and Draisaitl, and Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).