Calder Trophy Rankings: Return of the Mack

If the first two months of the campaign are any indicator, we're in for a real treat with the Calder Trophy race this season.

The players on this list have so far separated themselves as the top five rookies in the class, and any one of them is just a hot streak away from becoming the new front-runner.

Buckle up.

5. Lane Hutson, Canadiens 🔴

We're exhausted just looking at Hutson's average ice time. Not only is he the busiest rookie by a large margin (no other first-year player has cracked the 20-minute mark), but his playing time also ranks 32nd among all skaters in the league. May we remind you, he's only 20 years old.

Hutson also paces the class in assists and sits tied for the second-most points (he was being credited with another helper Tuesday), and he's far and away the best rookie defenseman this season.

Of course, Hutson is a heavily used blue-liner on a struggling team, so it isn't always going to be pretty, but he's had a positive impact on the Habs at five-on-five. Montreal has been outscored 23-19 (45.2%) with Hutson on the ice in those situations, but that gap widens to 42-27 (39.1%) with him on the bench.

Hutson is only going to improve over time as he continues learning the ropes. Add to that the fact that he could hit the 50-point mark (especially if he gets substantial time on the first power-play unit), and he just might be a Calder finalist by the end of the campaign.

4. Logan Stankoven, Stars 🌟

It feels odd to keep Stankoven off the podium of these rankings, but the three players ahead of him have been absolutely bonkers as of late, so he'll have to settle for fourth place ... for now.

Make no mistake, Stankoven is very much in the running here. He's currently tied for second place in the rookie points race, and he's matched the No. 1 guy on this list for the most even-strength points (12).

The 21-year-old should actually have even more goals and points than he does. That poor shooting percentage that was bogging him down in the first month of the season hasn't gotten much better. His 61 shots are the most among all first-year players, but only four of them (three of which are game-winners) have gone in, giving him a measly 6.6% success rate.

Stankoven has the honor of playing on one of the league's top teams - a luxury not shared by anyone else on this list - but he's proving to be more than just the beneficiary of his surroundings.

3. Dustin Wolf, Flames 🔥

We doubt many people thought the Flames would occupy a playoff spot in December, but here they are, and Wolf is a big reason why.

He ranks at the top of every statistical category among rookies who play his position, and it isn't particularly close. To get a true grasp of how excellent he's been, we have to stack him up against every other goalie in the league, and, boy, are we impressed. Wolf currently ranks fifth in goals saved above average (7.77) and 10th in goals saved above expected (7.35) at all strengths, while his save percentage is the ninth highest among all netminders to make at least five starts.

Wolf is still splitting starting duties with Dan Vladar, but the Flames did break the pattern by turning to the 23-year-old for three straight starts in mid-November. He rewarded Calgary's confidence by posting a .966 save percentage and 0.97 goals-against average in the trio of wins.

Wolf has posted a sub-.900 save percentage in his last two starts, which will happen over a long campaign. Before that, he owned a .926 clip on the season. He has simply been that guy.

2. Matvei Michkov, Flyers 🟠

Yes, John Tortorella's decision to scratch Michkov for two games in November was controversial, but you can't argue with the results.

The 19-year-old winger has racked up five goals and nine points in 10 games since his return to the lineup. He also apparently used his time in the press box to figure out the whole "scoring at even strength" thing, as seven of those points have come in those situations. For context, he had just three points at even strength before sitting as a healthy scratch.

But wait, there's more. Michkov is already up to three overtime winners. To put this in perspective, the Flyers won just four games in overtime all of last season. And, you guessed it, all three clutch tallies came after Michkov's stint on the sidelines.

Unsurprisingly, the 19-year-old still leads all rookies in goals and points, while his 0.83 point-per-game rate is second only to the No. 1 guy on this list. It was difficult to bump Michkov down to No. 2 as he didn't do anything to warrant it, but the other Calder Trophy front-runner simply forced our hand.

1. Macklin Celebrini, Sharks 🦈

Return of the Mack, indeed.

Celebrini stunned with his first goal and assist in his NHL debut, but he missed the Sharks' next 12 games with a suspected hip injury. We'd say he's recovered just fine.

The 18-year-old is fourth among all rookies in points, second in goals, and is tied for the most even-strength points (12) despite playing in significantly fewer games than the guys in front of him. It shouldn't be a surprise then that Celebrini leads the class with a 0.93 point-per-game and a 0.53 goal-per-game rate. He has generated 1.58 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which ranks 14th among all skaters to play at least 200 minutes this season.

Celebrini has shown he's more than just a skill guy, too. He's winning puck battles all over the place and already has at least one highlight-reel-worthy defensive play under his belt with an incredible effort to stop an empty-net goal.

Oh, and he's red-hot right now with seven points in his last four games. Producing in the NHL is supposed to be hard.

Keep an eye on:

• Jackson Blake, Hurricanes
• Cutter Gauthier, Ducks
• Will Smith, Sharks
• Maxim Tsyplakov, Islanders

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)