Vezina Trophy Rankings: Hellebuyck looks poised to go back-to-back
Welcome to the second edition of theScore's 2024-25 Vezina Trophy rankings, a monthly look at the top goaltenders across the NHL.
None of our five positions are the same as they were last month, and three newcomers have entered the fold. Choosing between goalies five-through-two was splitting hairs, but the No. 1 option is clear as day at this point.
GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
5. Anthony Stolarz, Maple Leafs
Previous: Unranked
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-4-2 | 2.23 | 9.24 | 10 | 10.73 |
This spot came down to Stolarz and Anaheim Ducks netminder Lukas Dostal, who was third on our list last month. Dostal is still among the league leaders in several key stats, but the numbers are inflated by his hot start. Since our first edition, the Ducks' goaltender is 2-3-0 with a .903 save percentage and looks to have surrendered primary starting duties to John Gibson. Dostal may have the edge over Stolarz in underlying stats, but the Leafs' stalwart has been the more consistent option and is a driving force for a Toronto team that leads the Atlantic Division.
Stolarz's numbers would theoretically be good enough to vault him higher on the list - perhaps even in a podium spot - but his partner, Joseph Woll, is having similar success behind a defense that's tightened up considerably under head coach Craig Berube. Stolarz's workload has also decreased with Woll healthy, and the Maple Leafs are likely to use a fairly even split between the two going forward. Stolarz is a terrific story, but he's a fringe candidate for the Vezina at this point.
4. Dustin Wolf, Flames
Previous: Unranked
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-4-1 | 2.59 | .918 | 7.77 | 7.35 |
The Flames' early success this season surprised much of the hockey world, and Wolf is the primary reason Calgary is in the hunt for a playoff spot in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. He's also in the Calder Trophy conversation, and his immediate success in the NHL is undoubtedly opening some eyes.
Wolf ranks top 10 in all the criteria above except goals against average, where he slots in at 14th. Since our first edition of these rankings, the 23-year-old is 4-2-1 with a .926 clip and a shutout. If that's not enough to illustrate his impact on the Flames, Wolf's also logged two assists and a minor penalty during his current hot streak.
Expecting a rookie to keep up such a torrid pace over the rigors of a full season is a huge ask; a first-year netminder hasn't won the Vezina since Ed Belfour in 1991. That said, Wolf fully deserves his spot in the conversation through the first quarter of the campaign and looks poised to remain in the mix.
3. Jake Oettinger, Stars
Previous: Unranked
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-4-0 | 2.38 | .915 | 5.5 | 10.17 |
Oettinger's generated plenty of Vezina buzz early in his career, especially after finishing fifth in voting in 2023. There were peaks and valleys last year, but he's on a roll right now and looks like a serious threat for hardware come next summer. The Stars' backbone has won eight of 10 starts since our last rankings and posted a .913 clip over that period.
Oettinger had pedestrian analytics over the first month but has shot up to fifth in GSAx on the year at 10.17 on the season. He holds the same position in Evolving-Hockey's wins above replacement (WAR) metric and is also top 10 in both save percentage and goals against average.
Although Oettinger's overall numbers are strong, he's still having hiccups of inconsistency that he'll need to sort out to stay in the Vezina race all year long. He posted sub-.700 save percentages in two starts this season and recently allowed five goals in a loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.
2. Filip Gustavsson, Wild
Previous: 4th
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-4-3 | 2.04 | .929 | 15.22 | 11.27 |
Gustavsson's showing no signs of slowing down after a brilliant first two months. He ranks first in save percentage and goals against average among goalies with at least 10 starts this season, and he's tied for fourth in wins.
Despite shining as Minnesota's last line of defense, Gustavsson's candidacy took a hit in our first edition due to the Wild's top-tier back end. But he's shown his individual worth lately by ranking first in GSAA and second in GSAx over the last month, as well as first and third all season, respectively. The improved underlying metrics are a key reason Gustavsson moved up our list, but he still has a long way to go to match our top dog.
1. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets
Previous: 2nd
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-5-0 | 2.16 | .927 | 14.7 | 20.02 |
Winnipeg is beginning to lose games intermittently after a scorching start to the season, but the Jets' mild turbulence can't be pinned on Hellebuyck. The Vezina front-runner is 6-4-0 with a .933 save percentage since our November instalment and leads all netminders by a significant margin with 15.27 GSAx over that span. No one else is even in double digits in that category since Nov. 6, which underscores Hellebuyck's dominance.
It will require a Herculean effort from any netminder to knock Hellebuyck off his perch. The Jets star has individual stats, team success, and pedigree on his side in the eyes of voters. He'll be in rarified air if he continues down the path he's on and wins the Vezina in consecutive seasons. It hasn't been done since Martin Brodeur in 2007 and 2008, and the only goalies to do it post-1967 expansion are Brodeur, Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, and Ken Dryden.
Keep an eye on:
- Lukas Dostal, Ducks
- Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs
- Logan Thompson, Capitals
- Joey Daccord, Kraken
- Kevin Lankinen, Canucks
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)