Hart Trophy Rankings: Draisaitl tightens grip in bid for 2nd MVP win
The 2024-25 NHL season is flying by, as we now have about four months of numbers to work with in the chase for the Hart Trophy. It's not all about statistics, of course, but NHL teams have now played around two-thirds of their regular-season games, so the sample size is considerable.
Kirill Kaprizov's once-strong MVP candidacy took a hit due to injury last time we evaluated the race Jan. 10. He eventually came back for three games but was then scheduled for surgery and ruled out for at least four weeks Jan. 28. Kaprizov still leads the Minnesota Wild in goals, assists, and points, but he's now a long shot.
Quinn Hughes has almost single-handedly kept the Vancouver Canucks in contention and leads the Norris Trophy chase as a result. But he has also been out due to a nagging injury, and his status for the 4 Nations Face-Off is unclear.
Here are our top five Hart Trophy hopefuls as we approach the break for the upcoming best-on-best tournament.
xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
GSAA = Goals saved above average
5. Jack Eichel, Golden Knights
Previous: 5
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 19 | 48 | 21:06 | 52.33 |
Eichel doesn't have especially eye-popping offensive numbers like the two players ahead of him here, but the Vegas star has scored 78.9% of his goals (15) at even strength. He has at least nine assists and 20 more points than any of his teammates while ranking among the league leaders in both categories.
The ex-Buffalo Sabres center sits 10th among NHL skaters and seventh among the league's forwards in wins above replacement, standings points above replacement, and goals above replacement in 2024-25. Eichel has a minus-1.5 defensive GAR, but his 1.9 goals against per 60 minutes is superior to that of our top two MVP contenders, and his 2.48 expected goals against per 60 is virtually identical (2.49) to that of our No. 2 candidate.
Vegas has only three wins in its last 12 games, but the 2023 Stanley Cup champions have a comfortable cushion for second place in the Pacific Division, and they're in a dogfight with our Hart front-runner's team for first place. Eichel has been the biggest reason for the Golden Knights' success this season.
4. David Pastrnak, Bruins
Previous: Unranked
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 28 | 39 | 19:58 | 51.25 |
Pastrnak hasn't been in this season's MVP hunt until now, largely thanks to Boston's struggles. But the 2022-23 Hart Trophy runner-up has been on an absolute tear that's vaulted him back into the conversation. Pastrnak leads all NHL skaters in goals (11), assists (14), and points in 12 games played since our last edition. That's 2.08 points per game in that span, and no other qualified skaters have more than 1.55.
The Czech winger sits atop his team by wide margins of nine goals, 15 assists, and 24 points this season. His current surge has also launched him back among the league scoring leaders. He ranks third in the NHL in even-strength points (52) and leads the league in shots on goal (225). Pastrnak's analytic figures aren't spectacular, but they're favorable. The Bruins have controlled 53.42% of the scoring chances with Pastrnak on the ice at five-on-five in 2024-25.
Pastrnak also has better WAR, SPAR, and GAR totals than the No. 2 contender on this list. Boston still sits outside the playoff picture by points percentage, but the club would be nowhere near a wild-card spot without the star forward's contributions.
3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets
Previous: 4
| GP | Record | SV% | GSAx | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 33-7-2 | .925 | 35.82 | 26.41 |
Hellebuyck has remained in consideration for the Hart Trophy virtually all season. The Winnipeg goaltender has been the clear favorite for the Vezina Trophy throughout the 2024-25 campaign, and his stellar play should earn him more than a few MVP votes.
The American has been particularly dominant lately. He is 8-1-0 with a .922 save percentage in nine games since our last instalment, leading the NHL in wins during that span. Hellebuyck's GSAx and GSAA haven't been the best since we last checked in, but he's still significantly outpacing his contemporaries for 2024-25 as a whole.
The veteran netminder has had some help from productive forwards Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but Hellebuyck plays a more important position, and he's been far better than any other goalie in the league. This illustrates how much more instrumental Hellebuyck has been in helping the Jets hold the second-best points percentage in the NHL.
2. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche
Previous: 2
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 20 | 63 | 23:04 | 57.24 |
The reigning Hart winner continues making a push to repeat, and his case could get stronger down the stretch now that Colorado traded fellow superstar Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes. However, MacKinnon was making a credible MVP bid long before the Avalanche shockingly dealt his talented ex-running mate.
MacKinnon leads the NHL in assists and points this season, and he trails his No. 1 rival here by one in even-strength points. The Avalanche center's average time on ice is also tops among all NHL forwards. MacKinnon's SCF% is even better than his xGF% at 60.51, a figure that puts him ahead of our Hart front-runner in the category.
The Colorado's catalyst's defensive numbers aren't as solid as those of his top competitor for this award, and MacKinnon still has Cale Makar as part of his supporting cast. Those are the main factors keeping him from leading the MVP race.
1. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers
Previous: 1
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 38 | 43 | 21:45 | 60.75 |
Draisaitl still has Connor McDavid as a teammate, of course. However, the German proved his immense value when he racked up five goals and six assists across McDavid's two separate three-game stints out of the lineup. Draisaitl has 16 more goals and 10 more points than McDavid this season, not to mention the gap between Draisaitl and the rest of their teammates.
The 2020 MVP leads the NHL in goals and sits second in points to MacKinnon by two. Draisaitl paces the league in even-strength goals (28) and holds the even-strength points lead by one over his Avalanche counterpart.
Draisaitl's offensive totals are tremendous, but it's his two-way game that continues to set him apart in the Hart race. He ranks first among all NHL skaters in WAR, GAR, and SPAR this season. He also has a positive defensive GAR (1.5), along with respectable GA/60 (2.14) and xGA (2.37) rates.
Keep an eye on:
- Quinn Hughes, Canucks
- Tim Stutzle, Senators
- Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets
- Travis Konecny, Flyers
(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)