Calder Trophy Rankings: Hard to argue against Hutson's case

There's one more month to go in the Calder Trophy race, so it's time for our penultimate rankings.

You won't find any hot takes here. It's still the same four players at the top, although the order has changed a bit. Get ready for a juicy final stretch.

For now, here's how we see things five months into the campaign.

5. Logan Stankoven, Hurricanes

Previous: Unranked

Stankoven hasn't been a mainstay in the Calder Trophy race like many expected him to be before the season began, but he's done enough to earn a shoutout through the first five months.

The newest Hurricane made an instant impact for Carolina on Sunday, becoming the seventh player in franchise history to score a game-winner in his debut with the club. That's one way to quell some of the criticism directed at the Hurricanes for their handling of the Mikko Rantanen saga.

Stankoven ranks sixth among all rookies in points and is tied for the lead with five game-winners. He would have even more if it weren't for his abysmal 6.6% shooting rate. To put it in perspective, he generated around 17 individual expected goals through 59 games with the Dallas Stars to start the season, but he scored just nine times. Stankoven keeps trying, though - he's second in the first-year class with 152 shots.

4. Matvei Michkov, Flyers

Previous: 4

Michkov is heating up at exactly the right time. He said good riddance to his winter blues with a fantastic February in which he led all first-year players with five goals and 10 points in seven contests. All but one of those points came at even strength, a promising sign for a player who has been criticized for his lack of five-on-five offense.

The 20-year-old Russian also saw his average ice time jump to 16:33 minutes last month after it plummeted to 14:23 in January. Though it's nice to see Michkov looking confident and refreshed, it might be too late for him to stake his claim as a Calder Trophy finalist. He struggled through multiple slumps in December and January, recording five tallies and 10 helpers in a 28-game span.

Of course, Michkov is still tied for the most goals in the class and is just two points off the rookie lead, but it'd take an absolutely blistering run to close out the season in order to usurp one of the next three players on this list.

3. Dustin Wolf, Flames

Previous: 1

If there was a rookie version of the Hart Trophy, it would undoubtedly go to Wolf. No other first-year player has been as vital to his team's success this season as Calgary's netminder, and he might even fetch some downballot Vezina Trophy votes as a result of his efforts.

Wolf is tied for fifth in save percentage among all goalies to play in at least 20 contests this season. He's fifth in the league in goals saved above average (15.83), fifth in goals saved above expected (24.34), and second in wins, goals, and standings points above replacement. In case that doesn't make it clear enough, the offensively stunted Flames - who are dead last in the league in goals per game (2.56) - wouldn't be within spitting distance of the playoff picture without Wolf.

That sounds like a strong Calder Trophy case, but it's a stacked rookie class this year. The two guys ahead of Wolf on these rankings simply haven't slowed down enough to make the goalie the undisputed front-runner, but it'd be shocking if he wasn't named a finalist in April.

2. Macklin Celebrini, Sharks

Previous: 3

The Celebrini buzz has been palpable all season long, and the Sharks phenom has thrived under the pressure that comes with the hype. You'd be forgiven for forgetting that he's the youngest player in the league this season - he certainly doesn't play like it.

The youngster is tied for the most goals among rookies and is just one off the points lead despite playing in 10 fewer contests than his peers. It's a shame Celebrini missed 12 games near the start of the season, seeing as he'd be on track for 30 tallies over a full 82-game campaign. The last 18-year-old to hit the 30-goal mark in his rookie year was Patrik Laine in 2016-17.

Celebrini's season is eerily similar to Connor Bedard's debut in 2023-24 when the Chicago Blackhawks star amassed 61 points in 68 contests while sitting out 14 games with a broken jaw. Celebrini is on pace for 62 points in 70 outings with a near-identical 0.89 point-per-game rate. Bedard's season concluded with a Calder Trophy victory, and there's a strong chance that Celebrini's campaign will end exactly the same.

1. Lane Hutson, Canadiens

Previous: 2

It's going to be extremely difficult for voters to decide between Celebrini and Hutson. Really, you can't go wrong between the two, but we're going with the Canadiens defenseman this time.

The budding superstar leads all rookies in points. If he holds off Michkov and Celebrini, Hutson would be the first rearguard to take the scoring crown since Quinn Hughes paced the 2019-20 class with 53 points in 68 outings. Hutson ranks in the top 10 in points among all players at his position this season and he's fourth in assists, trailing only Hughes, Zach Werenski, and Cale Makar.

Hutson's year also stands out historically. He's on track to become the 19th blue-liner to hit the 50-point mark in his debut season and the fifth rookie defenseman to record 50 assists in a single campaign (he'd be the first to reach that milestone since Gary Suter in 1985-86). Additionally, Hutson is on pace for 58 helpers, which would trail only Larry Murphy (60 assists in 1980-81) for the most all time by a first-year defenseman. It's hard to go against those numbers.

Keep an eye on:

• Jackson Blake, Hurricanes
• Cutter Gauthier, Ducks
• Marco Kasper, Red Wings
• Will Smith, Sharks

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)