What the odds say: When and how will Ovi break Gretzky's goals record?
The hockey world is locked into Alex Ovechkin's chase of Wayne Gretzky's NHL career goals record. Ovechkin is only three tallies shy of breaking Gretzky's 894 mark. It's going to happen - and it's only a matter of when.
With seven Capitals games remaining before the playoffs, Ovechkin's odds of scoring his 895th career goal this season are -500 at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet, which equates to an implied probability of 83.3%.
Those odds have shifted drastically over the past week after the Capitals' captain potted a goal in three consecutive games. Before Washington's tilt against the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, Ovechkin was only -115 (53.5% implied probability) to break Gretzky's record this season.
Ovechkin's chances of becoming the NHL's all-time leading goal scorer this season have never been better.
The Capitals play the Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders two more times each this season, giving those two teams the shortest odds to concede the record-breaking goal.
| Team (Date) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets (April 12 & 13) | +170 |
| Islanders (April 6 & 15) | +275 |
| Hurricanes (April 10) | +500 |
| Penguins (April 17) | +550 |
| Blackhawks (April 4) | +3000 |
Washington plays host to the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, with oddsmakers suggesting there's a 3% chance Ovechkin records a hat trick to make history.
But Ovechkin has a flair for the dramatic, doesn't he? How about leaving it to the final game of the regular season against longtime rival Sidney Crosby's Pittsburgh Penguins? That would be appointment viewing for any hockey fan.
In terms of how he'll do it, an even-strength marker is the heavy favorite at -220. However, Ovechkin dominates on the power play. He has the most power-play tallies in NHL history with 323 (49 more than second-place Dave Andreychuk), with 36.2% of his career goals coming with the man advantage. Perhaps he'll do it in a similar fashion to how he's scored so many power-play markers before - a one-timer on his off wing from the face-off dot.
| Method | Odds |
|---|---|
| Even strength | -220 |
| Power play | +160 |
| Shorthanded | +6000 |
A short-handed goal is a long shot at +6000. Ovechkin has only five short-handed goals in his career.
| Period of goal | Odds |
|---|---|
| 1st period | +250 |
| 2nd period | +230 |
| 3rd period | +105 |
| Overtime | +2500 |
Oddsmakers believe the third period is when Ovechkin will most likely score the historic goal, which makes sense considering the possibility of an empty-netter. But it wouldn't feel right if Ovechkin broke the long-standing record on an empty-netter.
Regardless of how Ovechkin scores it, breaking the record this season would put a bow on the Washington Capitals' incredible 2024-25, which will likely include being the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Nobody, aside from perhaps Gretzky himself, wants to see this chase carry over to next season.