Calder Trophy Rankings: Final musings on a stacked class

The 2024-25 Calder Trophy race has been a real treat, fueled by budding superstars at each position group. Though one player stands out from the talented field, there's more than one worthy candidate to take home the hardware.

For the final time this season, let's dive into this year's crop of rookies.

5. Cutter Gauthier, Ducks

Previous: Unranked

Welcome to the rankings, Gauthier.

The Ducks forward currently sits fourth among all rookies in both points and goals, but it's his recent play that has earned him a spot on our final list. Gauthier has been fantastic since returning from the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, registering eight goals and 18 points - all of which have come at even strength - in his last 23 games. Only two rookies - Matvei Michkov and Lane Hutson - have been more productive over that stretch.

Arguably one of Anaheim's most improved youngsters since the start of the season, Gauthier was rocking a 0.41 point-per-game clip with nine goals and 13 helpers through his first 54 contests of the campaign. Since then, he's boosted his point-per-game rate to 0.78.

The 21-year-old's progress is a promising sign for the Ducks' rebuild.

4. Matvei Michkov, Flyers

Previous: 4

Keeping Michkov off the podium is a shame given how hot he's been in the post-John Tortorella era.

Though he was held without a point in his most recent game, here's how Michkov's first three contests went after Tortorella's dismissal:

All of those points came at even strength, and he holds the rookie lead in that category with 43 on the season - four more than Hutson in second place. Michkov has also enjoyed six multi-goal outings, tied for third most by a Flyer in his rookie season in franchise history.

It will be hard for him to unseat any of the top three guys on this list, but it's not impossible. Michkov already paces the class in goals and is six points off the rookie lead. It'll be a tall task to take over the latter category, but he'll make voters' lives extremely difficult if he does.

3. Macklin Celebrini, Sharks

Previous: 2

Celebrini is likely going to finish the season at or near the top of tons of Calder ballots. However, he's at a bit of a disadvantage because he hasn't had the chance to play in big, meaningful games this season.

Of course, that isn't Celebrini's fault, and the 18-year-old has injected plenty of life into San Jose's lineup. He plays with a poise beyond his years and pesters opponents with his relentless effort. He's second among all rookies in goals and third in points despite sitting out 12 games at the start of the season. He also leads the Sharks in points and paces the first-year class with a 0.88 point-per-game rate.

In addition, Celebrini ranks 31st among all players in the league in individual shot attempts (429) and is tied for 28th in individual scoring chances (232) at all strengths.

The 2024 first-round pick is poised to become a superstar and may wind up being the best player in this rookie class, but there are plenty of superstars who don't win the Calder.

2. Dustin Wolf, Flames

Previous: 3

As we touched on before, Wolf is getting the edge over Celebrini in the runner-up spot simply because Calgary is in the throes of the playoff race.

The netminder is the biggest X-factor in determining whether the Flames make it or not, and if they're still playing in a few weeks' time, his Calder case becomes even stronger than it already is. Will it be strong enough for him to become the first goalie to win it since Steve Mason in 2009? It's hard to say. The No. 1 guy on this list is also instrumental to his team's postseason push.

No matter how the final voting shakes out, Wolf has pieced together a season worth celebrating. He ranks fourth in the league in goals saved above expected (28.02) and eighth in goals saved above average (15.38). The 23-year-old is also seventh in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five (.855) among all goalies to appear in at least 20 games this season and third in wins above replacement (5.2).

Those numbers could even earn him some downballot Vezina Trophy votes. Not too shabby for a seventh-round draft pick.

1. Lane Hutson, Canadiens

Previous: 1

We wrote last month that it's hard to argue against Hutson's case for the Calder, and he's only gotten better since then. His 15 points in 13 games since our last rankings are the second most among all blue-liners - trailing only Cale Makar - and he's a league-leading plus-12 over that stretch.

The Canadiens were handed a tough assignment with back-to-back games against the Florida Panthers on March 30 and April 1, but Hutson rose to the challenge. He recorded three assists in each contest against the defending champions while leading the Habs in average ice time (24:52). Montreal also held a 14-5 edge in high-danger chances during his minutes, and he wasn't on the ice for a goal against.

The 21-year-old is one point away from breaking Chris Chelios' record for most points by a first-year rearguard in Canadiens history. Hutson is also on pace for 62 assists, which would surpass Larry Murphy's 60 helpers in 1980-81 for most all-time by a defenseman in his rookie season.

If that wasn't enough, Hutson paces this year's rookie class in points and assists, all while helping Montreal through its surprising playoff push.

Though Celebrini and Wolf would be great choices, the Calder should absolutely be Hutson's.

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)