5 battles that'll determine Game 5 of Leafs-Senators series
The Ottawa Senators avoided an opening-round sweep Saturday night with a thrilling 4-3 overtime victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Here are five battles to monitor in Tuesday night's Game 5 at Scotiabank Arena.
Sens' shooters vs. Leafs' blockers
Heading into Monday's games, the Sens ranked 16th out of 16 playoff teams in one important category: inner-slot shots. They've generated a measly 3.8 per game, according to Sportlogiq, with St. Louis sitting 15th at 4.5 per game and the 14 other teams generating between 5.8 (three clubs) and nine (Oilers).
The Senators' struggle to get into the interior of the offensive zone is strongly linked to an overall inability to get shots through the Leafs' defensive shell. Those storylines explain the series' arc well.
Ottawa's attempted 280 total shots over four games - 102 of them have ended up on goal, 83 have missed the net, and, most crucially, 95 have been blocked. Unsurprisingly, Toronto leads the postseason in blocked shots.
There have been plenty of instances in which a skilled Sens player enters the Leafs' zone with time and space only for it to evaporate thanks to active sticks and well-timed physicality from the likes of Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ottawa's most talented forward, Tim Stutzle, has been victimized countless times in this way, though the German (and most of his teammates) did a much better job maximizing offensive-zone possessions in Game 4.
Drake Batherson's been the exception to the rule all series. The Sens winger has made mistakes without the puck (blown coverage in overtime of Game 2, reckless penalty late in Game 4), but he's been a handful with it. He's consistently used his skating and big frame to power his way into the middle of the ice and deserves a better stat line than one goal and one assist.
Leafs' power play vs. Sens' penalty kill
The Leafs scored four goals on seven power-play opportunities in the first two games. The total time needed on those successful power plays: 38 seconds.
Fast forward to overtime in Game 4, and Toronto looked primed to send the Senators into the offseason after Batherson incurred a four-minute double major for high-sticking. Except the Leafs over-passed. Auston Matthews hitting the post was the lone highlight.
Two major factors were at play. One, the Leafs' five-forward power-play unit had to be downgraded to four forwards because John Tavares was being treated for a possible concussion. Two, the Senators' penalty kill was better prepared for the Leafs' movement patterns following 12 previous power plays and film study. Toronto had trouble funneling pucks to the goal line and slot areas.
It's obvious but needs to be stated: Ottawa's PK can't fail the rest of the team in Game 5. It all starts with goalie Linus Ullmark. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner hasn't carried his fair share of the load through four games, posting an ugly goals saved above expected of minus-3.7, according to Sportlogiq.
Sens' doggedness vs. Stolarz's sightlines
The Senators have scored 10 goals in the series but only five at even strength.
Of those five, three came off rebounds, one was a deflected point shot, and one was a screened point shot. What do those five Sens goals have in common? They involved some degree of chaos in front of Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz, either immediately before or during the shot attempt.
Playoff hockey isn't rocket science. Get bodies to the net and then outwork the opposition to the puck, whether it's loose or in flight. This is especially applicable to the Sens in this matchup: They have less talent, which means they must be the hungriest for pucks.
Matthew Knies vs. Ridly Greig
Matthew Knies proved in the regular season that he wasn't some sidekick to linemates Matthews and Mitch Marner. The 22-year-old's taken his game to an even higher level as arguably the best forward on either team through four games.
Knies is coach Craig Berube's dream when it comes to executing a north-south playing style. A linebacker on skates at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds, he crashes and bangs on the forecheck and retrieves dump-ins at a high rate. He's outstanding at keeping his feet moving in traffic both off the rush and in the offensive zone, making him difficult to contain. His playmaking seems to be improving daily, too.
Knies' physical traits were on full display for his breakaway goal in Game 4:
In Knies, Matthews, and Tavares, the Leafs have three top-six forwards who can be physically dominant shift to shift. This has proven to be an issue for a Sens team that isn't overly imposing down the middle or on the blue line.
Knies' emergence has been especially important for Toronto because the Leafs have received nothing offensively from second-line left winger Pontus Holmberg, and the Max Domi-centered third line can't seem to find its purpose.
Ridly Greig is the Sens' closest equivalent to Knies. Greig's smaller and not quite the same player, but both occupy that space between their club's star players and bit pieces. Greig's been on the ice for three five-on-five goals against and none for, but he's personally looked effective most shifts. He has that high-motor, in-your-face layer to his game that leaves the door open for a monster performance. Greig has a chance here to be a villain on the road.
This battle of Knies versus Greig isn't head-to-head. But if Ottawa can slow down Knies and Greig can make a Knies-esque impact, Game 5 should be close.
Leafs' stars vs. human element
Imagine for a moment the Leafs surrender the first goal for the third straight game. Now imagine you're Matthews, Marner, Nylander, or Morgan Rielly, one of the players who's lost 11 of 12 series closeout games.
What goes through your mind? How do you feel? They're all human.
"They've got demons in their head, in their car, under their f-----g beds, everywhere they turn, there's a f-----g demon," former Leafs assistant coach Paul MacLean said in the 2021 "All Or Nothing" Amazon documentary.
"The biggest obstacle this team has now is themselves."
The Leafs have won a series since MacLean's revealing soundbite, and the roster's been turned over for the most part. Plus, they enter Tuesday night up 3-1. There's no logical reason to panic.
Still, the core's history is what it is, and Ottawa, for all its warts, has pushed Toronto to three overtimes in four games. There are no free wins in the playoffs. Psyches will be tested if things go sideways early in Game 5.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).