What the Maple Leafs must do to (finally) reach the conference finals
In classic Maple Leafs fashion, Toronto is set to play in a Game 7 following a roller-coaster six games. The winner-take-all showdown against Florida goes Sunday night at Scotiabank Arena. Here's what the Leafs must do to beat the Panthers and reach the conference finals for the first time in 23 years.
Find early Matthews line advantage
Everything in the playoffs flows downstream from a team's best players. Game 5 revealed the Leafs' worst-case scenario: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were passengers in a dreadful 6-1 loss. Game 6 resembled some version of the best-case scenario - Matthews impacted all three zones, and the superstars connected on the eventual game-winner.
Sunday is a legacy-molding night for Matthews, 27, and Marner, 28. It's also potentially the last hurrah for a nearly decade-long partnership with Marner due to test free agency. It goes without saying, but it also can't go unsaid: Matthews and Marner need to have monster performances. Nothing less.
Historically, the team that scores first in Game 7 has won 75% of the time. Why? The leading team often turns it into a dump-and-chase exhibition.
The Leafs have scored first only once in five Game 7s in the Matthews-Marner era. The urgency should be at full blast this time around. The Leafs must push the pace and take it to the Panthers from puck drop onward. Since 2023, Florida, which can play a smothering brand of hockey at a moment's notice, is 17-0 in the playoffs when leading after one period and 25-0 when leading after two. An early Panthers lead could send the crowd into a daze, and the players might follow due to the high stakes and weight of past failures.
Coach Craig Berube has opted to go power-versus-power this series, with Matthews' line almost exclusively drawing Aleksander Barkov's in Games 1, 2, and 5. It's worked out well in the aggregate, as Toronto's top line is 4-2 at five-on-five on home ice. But Berube should ride the top line especially hard Sunday while trying his best to sneak William Nylander onto the left wing for 30 seconds here and there. There's no tomorrow. Get aggressive. Go nuclear and use the benefit of the last change to your advantage.
Matthews' other winger, Matthew Knies, has been fantastic this postseason. He suffered an injury in Game 6, and while it'd be shocking if the forechecking menace missed Game 7, expectations should be tempered. This isn't about Knies, though. This game is about Matthews and Marner first and foremost.
Be direct, handle puck with care
The team that's done a better job imposing its will on the opponent's attack, by eliminating time and space and stealing pucks, has usually won.
Florida recorded more takeaways than Toronto in its Games 3-5 wins. Toronto had more in Game 6 and finished Game 1 with just one fewer. Game 2 is the only true outlier, as the Leafs emerged victorious despite being on the losing end of a 4-1 takeaway count and posting 15 giveaways to the Panthers' five.
Game 5 provided the Leafs with a template for what not to do with the puck in a tight-checking series. Matthews committed a turnover at Toronto's goal line before Florida's first goal. Marner, in a wildly irresponsible move, tossed a spinning backhand into the neutral zone ahead of Florida's third. Chris Tanev coughed up the puck along the half-wall on the fourth goal.
Leafs players were in their own heads, tentative. They didn't play instinctual hockey, which led to slow feet and hands and an overall lack of competitive juice. The Panthers smelled blood and smothered the Leafs' puck carriers.
Game 6, on the other hand, provided a template for what to do. Toronto was direct and decisive, managing risk well on zone exits and entries, chipping pucks into open space, forechecking, and, occasionally, crashing Florida's net.
The Leafs must be smart and cohesive again in Game 7 because Florida's counterattack is deadly. Consider this: The Panthers have scored 39 goals in the playoffs, and a whopping 17 have come within 10 seconds of a turnover.
Win 'battle' of upstart third lines
Anton Lundell and Max Domi - the third-line centers in this series - have shared the ice for 12 five-on-five minutes in six games, so it's extremely unlikely their lines go head-to-head in Game 7. Yet it feels as if one of these No. 3 units will put its stamp on Sunday's game somehow.
Domi and Bobby McMann have played together most of the postseason, while Max Pacioretty's a late arrival. The line doesn't have strong underlying numbers, but McMann and Pacioretty collaborated on a massive insurance goal in Game 6. Pacioretty's up to eight points in 10 games and has provided a ton of shift-to-shift value as a well-rounded, physical winger.
McMann, a 20-goal scorer mired in a slump, is creating enough offense to warrant his first tally in 24 games Sunday. Domi, meanwhile, has alternated between being an energizing force (dangerous off the rush, big-time goals) and completely unreliable (uninspired play, unnecessary penalties).
Florida's line of Lundell, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen has been flat-out dominant in 108 five-on-five playoff minutes, outscoring the opposition 8-2 and earning a 57% expected goals rate. Its largest contributions this series include a two-goal Game 2 and Marchand's overtime goal in Game 3. The responsible, skilled Finns are underrated, and Marchand is a pesky assassin.
Marchand, who spent many years terrorizing the Leafs in a Bruins uniform, can become the first player in NHL history to defeat the same opponent in five winner-take-all games. Game 7s are historically low-scoring affairs, yet Marchand's produced seven points in 12 such games over his career.
The smart money's on Marchand and the Finns outshining the Domi line. However, that Toronto line has "unfinished business" written all over it.
Go save for save with Bobrovsky
There's no hiding the experience gap between goalies.
In Florida's crease is a 36-year-old with 785 regular-season games, two Vezina Trophies, 105 playoff contests, two trips to the Stanley Cup Final, and one Cup ring to his name. In Toronto's is a 26-year-old with 91 total NHL games.
That said, Woll's an atypical underdog. He's been exceptional in a small sample of elimination games, boasting a 4-1 record and a .958 save percentage. The 1B in a 1A-1B setup, Woll relieved injured partner Anthony Stolarz midway through Game 1, fared OK, steadily improved in Games 2, 3, and 4, stumbled in a five-goal Game 5, then flourished in a must-win Game 6. That was the first time Florida had been shut out in 56 playoff games.
Toronto's defense was airtight in Game 6, limiting Florida to three slot shots (zero from the inner slot) and 2.09 expected goals off 77 attempts, according to Sportlogiq. Still, Woll did his part by stopping a few grade-A opportunities.
The Leafs don't need Woll to stand on his head Sunday. But they also can't afford a subpar performance. He simply needs to go save for save with Bob.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).