Reasons for pessimism, optimism after Maple Leafs' roller-coaster start
The Maple Leafs have been wildly inconsistent through five weeks of action.
Toronto won its season opener, then lost two, won two, lost three, won two, lost one, and won three, before dropping two games at home this past weekend.
What can we make of this 8-7-1 team ahead of Tuesday night's meeting with the Bruins? Here are some reasons for pessimism and optimism 16 games in.
The pessimistic view
The Leafs have an identity problem.
General manager Brad Treliving built a roster best suited for a heavy, low-event brand of hockey. Bench boss Craig Berube possesses the coaching chops and has the right demeanor to deliver wins through said grinding style.
Yet Toronto has often found itself in the middle of chaotic track meets to begin the season. The average Leafs game features 7.44 total goals - 3.69 for Toronto, 3.75 for the opposition - which is the highest rate in the NHL. Most nights they've been trading rush scoring chances with the opposition, and that's a problem because the Leafs don't have the requisite speed to keep up.
This team is supposed to forecheck hard, hold its own territorially, and eek out 2-1 and 3-2 victories. It's instead chasing the run of play and getting middling results. While there's plenty of time to reverse course, Berube's frustrated.
"It's just a mindset," the coach told reporters following Sunday's turnover-loaded 5-4 loss to the Hurricanes on home ice. "If you want to be a good defensive team, you have to check. You have to have good sticks. You have to be hard. You have to win battles. And you have to have a good structure."
"We don't have any of that right now," Berube added a moment later.
The defense corps, which went untouched in the offseason, is a major issue.
Toronto's defensemen are big - the regulars range from 6-foot-1 and 219 pounds to 6-foot-5 and 227 pounds - but size isn't everything in today's NHL. The blue line lacks mobility and puck skills beyond Morgan Rielly (who has his own warts).
Most discouragingly, the Leafs' blue line isn't excelling in the areas where big defensemen typically thrive, such as clearing the front of the net, maintaining tight gaps, making crisp first passes, and laying the body to change possession.
It's no mystery why the Leafs rank 25th in offensive zone puck possession time and 24th in O-zone possession time against, according to Sportlogiq.
Brandon Carlo, acquired from Boston for a haul at the 2025 trade deadline, has been especially ineffective while logging 20 minutes a night. Chris Tanev, one of the league's finest defensive defensemen over the past decade, has missed eight games due to concussions and been only OK when healthy. Depth defenders Philippe Myers and Simon Benoit have been liabilities.
Up front, newcomers Nicolas Roy, Matias Maccelli, and Dakota Joshua have been unable to replace departed star Mitch Marner in the aggregate. While Roy and Maccelli have shown promise, they've been mild disappointments overall. Joshua, on the other hand, looks purposeless in a jumbled bottom six.
The Leafs currently have $1.3 million in salary cap space, per PuckPedia. That may not seem like a lot, but Toronto has usually had even less to spend midseason. Plus, any trade the Leafs make between now and the deadline will most likely see salary coming off the books. Put another way, Treliving has some wiggle room to improve the Leafs' lineup through the trade market.
Minor problem: most of the club's tradable assets are gone. The Leafs don’t have a first- or second-round pick this year (Carlo and Jake McCabe trades), a first in 2027 (Scott Laughton), or a deep pool of desirable prospects.
The optimistic view
For all the doom and gloom, there's one significant positive for Leafs fans to latch onto: three of the club's four top forwards are producing at high levels.
William Nylander has been electric, with his 1.77 points per game ranking second in the entire NHL. John Tavares looks 25 - not 35 - on the ice, and he's tied for 10th in points with 21. Matthew Knies, with 20 points, is leaving no doubt that he can be an impact power forward every single night.
The other top forward? Auston Matthews. The captain's been fine while logging a team-high 21:54 a night, contributing 14 points in 16 games. He isn't dominating games like he used to, and "fine" isn't good enough, yet it's too early in the season to write off a player with Matthews' skill set and track record. Consider him a work in progress as opposed to a definitive negative.
Back to the positives. Nick Robertson, who's struggled to earn consistent ice time in the past, has found his footing. The 24-year-old is giving the Leafs secondary scoring (nine points) through an assertive, shoot-first playing style.
There are also three team-level issues that should be resolved sooner than later.
The Leafs' carelessness with the puck feels like a phase. The roster is too experienced to be turning the puck over constantly. They will snap out of it.
The power play sits 26th in the league in success rate. Marner's absence is unquestionably being felt here. However, Toronto is armed with enough game-breakers to be average, at the very least, on the man advantage. And, remember, a humming power play can make up for a team's imperfections elsewhere.
The Leafs finished fourth in team save percentage in 2024-25, with Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combining for a .905 in 74 starts. Toronto currently sits 27th with an .878 off 12 starts from Stolarz and four from minor-leaguers.
Woll hasn't been available, having taken a month-long leave of absence to attend a personal family matter, and Stolarz has crumbled under the heavy workload. This is a tandem setup. When one guy is out, the other suffers.
Woll is back with the club and has performed well to start his AHL conditioning stint. There are no guarantees with goaltending, but Stolarz and Woll have both shown in the past that they're not only competent NHL goalies but strong ones - in a tandem setting. Woll's return could unlock something.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).