The perils of draft rankings and young NHL defensemen

The NHL draft is just like every other version in professional sports, in the way that more than half of the young men drafted will never see their career develop. Some players like Detroit Red Wings center Pavel Datsyuk (171st overall) and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Martin St. Louis (undrafted) somehow slip through the cracks. 

A high draft ranking is where all the pressure begins. You are now expected to be something of substance for which ever team drafts you. The ranking is more of a hindrance than anything. Fans become attached to where their team will draft and which prospect should be "theirs." Expectations of how a player is going to save your franchise attaches unrealistic promise to a player that has never played in the NHL. 

Defensemen might be the most overrated in the draft considering their ability to come into the league and make a difference the same way players like Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Teemu Selanne can. Notice none of these players with successful NHL debuts followed by Hall of Fame careers are defensemen. 

The New York Rangers traded their No. 20 first-round pick in the 2008 draft to the Nashville Predators on Wednesday. Michael Del Zotto was the Rangers 11th highest drafted defenseman in Rangers history. (The highest was Brad Park, who was taken second overall in 1966, which worked out well).

There have been many prospects traded before their full potential was met. Defenseman in particular drafted high and praised by scouts often don't have very long to impress an organization. For that reason, here are three players in particular that had to deal with unrealistic expectations. 

Michael Del Zotto

Wednesday was trade day for Del Zotto, as his name was rumoured to be on the market for months. An opportunity in Nashville awaits him that can only serve as a clean slate and a great learning opportunity. Predators defenseman Shea Weber will be able to help the struggling Del Zotto, who in turn can work with rookie defenseman Seth Jones.

Before the 2008 entry draft, Del Zotto was ranked 15th in final draft rankings. Taken at 20th, Del Zotto's junior career with the Oshawa Generals and London Knights of the OHL boasted fantastic numbers.

From Hockeysfuture.com:

"Excellent offensive instincts, as well as exceptional skating and passing skills, Del Zotto plays with an edge to his game. A character player, with some defensive issues, there were questions about Del Zotto's conditioning in the past. However, he has changed his conditioning regimen this season and is developing better gap control in his own zone."

From Jim Hammet, head of Rangers amateur scouting:

"We were really excited," Rangers Head Amateur Scout Jim Hammett said of the chance to draft Del Zotto. "We had held this guy in really high regard as far as how high he could go. We think that he belonged in that upper echelon with some of the other defensemen that went higher, so overall we were absolutely thrilled that he was still there." Quote via Rangers.com

Del Zotto was asked to be an every day point-producing defenseman in the NHL from the day he stepped foot in Madison Square Garden. The league's best defensemen are in their mid-to-late 20s because it doesn't just take one season to figure the NHL out.

Luke Schenn

The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Luke Schenn fifth overall in the 2008 entry draft. He was the third-highest drafted defenseman in franchise history and the team's highest first overall pick since 1989. With that stat comes pressure -- especially in Toronto. Schenn's numbers out of junior weren't anything to be excited about, but his size as an 18-year-old placed him high on scouting lists. 

As the love affair with the self-proclaimed stay at home defenseman ended in Toronto, he was shipped off to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for James Van Riemsdyk. Schenn never spent any time in the AHL making the jump from WHL monster defenseman to average size NHL defenseman in less than a year. 

Since Schenn's departure from Toronto, he continues to put up his regular point total. The answer to why he was drafted so high lies in the fact that he was a six-foot-two, 200 pound 18-year-old. His size alone was the reason he was taken 15 picks before Nashville Predators defenseman Michael Del Zotto.

The expectation was Schenn would be a rock on defense. With such a high draft ranking and all the attention around being the Maple Leafs' first draft pick of 2008, fan expectations and the reality of his game were much different.

Ryan Ellis

If the name sounds familiar, you might remember Ryan Ellis from his three stints for Canada on the world junior team from 2009-2011. He became the eighth player to represent Canada on three consecutive occasions. That says much more about his abilities than any stat sheet could offer.

The Nashville Predators drafted Ellis in 2009 at 11th overall. He was returned to the Windsor Spitfires for the 2009-10 and 2010-11 season, and scored a combined 162 points. But junior performances often overshadow the possible jump these players need to make to get to NHL - especially in Ellis' case being 5-foot-10 and well under 200 pounds, that jump was much larger.

From International Scouting Services via TSN:
His ability to create time and space and be aware of all his options is exceptional. At the World Juniors, Ellis provided undeniable proof that he is an extremely desirable offensive weapon from the back end.

NBC's Pierre McGuire on draft day:
"Ryan Ellis is a steal. I think maybe one of the best athletes in this draft maybe one of the hardest shooters in this draft, and maybe one of the best decision-makers in this draft in terms of puck presence and power play presence."

From Hockeysfuture.com:
 "The common refrain heard throughout the league is that if Ellis was just three inches taller, he'd be a sure-fire top-five selection. Unfortunately, in many ways, the NHL is a big man's league and Ellis' dynamic power-play quarterbacking abilities and offensive production may be overshadowed by his lack of height.  Ellis has an outstanding shot from the point and is consistently able to jump-start the offense with a well-timed pass or breakout through the defensive zone."

Ellis is one of the best-maintained defenseman who has been slowly introduced to the NHL by way of the AHL. His size is the biggest concern for the Predators moving forward, just like it was on draft day. His numbers do suggest he can be a useful defenseman with a bit more time and more experience.