The Blues are good, but not the West's best

Through 72 games, the St. Louis Blues own the best record in hockey. A completely dominant puck-possession team, the Blues are elite in all relevant categories by which we usually judge the quality of a hockey team. 

It's not a coincidence that the Blues are a top-five offensive team, a top-five defensive team, super elite on the penalty-kill, and have a power-play unit clicking along at roughly 20 percent. They loaded up at the trade deadline, adding goaltender Ryan Miller and pest Steve Ott to complement an already stacked roster.  But are they good enough to win it all?

It looks like it, on the surface. But their swagger may not be entirely justified. At the very least, the Blues need to address an issue that might hinder their postseason success: Offensive output. 

Superficially, it might seem a bit silly to question the offensive chops of a club that has scored more goals per game than every team aside from Anaheim, Chicago and Boston. But some of it has been skewed by a bevy of favorable bounces this season - and the Blues players, even, are aware of it.

"At the [beginning] of the year we were putting up crooked numbers on a regular basis, maybe scoring a few that shouldn’t have gone in, and now we’re not getting goals on chances that should probably go in," Backes told the National Post's Bruce Arthur following Tuesday night's 5-3 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

Crooked numbers and bounces indeed. The Blues lead all teams in the NHL in shooting percentage this season, converting 10.6% of their shots in all situations. 

While it's possible that the Blues haven't been so fortunate and are just legitimately an above-average shooting team, it seems unlikely. It's not as if the Blues have sustained an above average conversion rate over the years - they were 23rd in the league in shooting percentage in 2011-12, and 13th in the league in 2012-13. 

Moreover, elite players drive shooting percentage over large samples, but these are players the Blues are missing. Going into this season, T.J. Oshie and Backes were the only Blues among the top 100 regular NHL forwards in driving five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage between 2007-13. They were 96th and 99th on that list respectively.

This isn't a new story for the team: They've seen their offensive production dry up in the postseason in the recent past. In St. Louis' past 15 playoff games, they've managed a total of 30 goals. Last season the Los Angeles Kings eliminated the Blues in six games, despite scoring a meager total of just 12 goals in the entire series.

Part of the issue is they aren't generating enough opportunities offensively relative to the other Western Conference contenders. In fact, the Blues are taking just 28.9 shots per sixty minutes in all situations - a rate that puts them 22nd out of 30 NHL teams.

Here's how they stack up against the best of the West (in all situations):

[Data courtesy ExtraSkater.com]

The ability of a team to generate shot volume seems to matter in the postseason, especially for teams with aspirations of hoisting Lord Stanley's mug at the conclusion of the hockey season. Only one of the past six Stanley Cup winners averaged fewer than 30 shots per 60 minutes at even-strength(*). The Blues aren't surpassing that benchmark, as they're averaging only 28.7 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. 

(*) A note on the relevant outlier: the data might be a bit deceptive in this case. The team that bucked the trend was the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, who fundamentally altered the way they played and became a more aggressive attacking team following the replacement of head coach Michel Therrien with Dan Bylsma at midseason.

Over the course of a seven game series or four, anything can happen. The Blackhawks, or Sharks, or Kings could sustain an injury that leaves them short-handed. Or Ryan Miller could stand on his head and steal a couple of games to swing a series. Or perhaps Alex Steen will go on an insane shooting percentage run at an opportune moment - that's the fun of the playoffs, it's unpredictable.

But if we're talking about favorites, the Blues very probably shouldn't be considered among the upper-tier of Western Conference contenders. 

The Kings, Blackhawks and Sharks accomplish much of what the Blues do in terms of controlling games with two-way play, after all. But in addition to playing excellent shutdown hockey, the other Western Conference heavyweights generate significantly more in terms of scoring opportunities. It's what makes them that much more dangerous.