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Can Sidney Crosby catch Patrick Kane in scoring race?

Bill Smith / National Hockey League / Getty

The NHL's scoring race is over.

Except, maybe it isn't.

With 32 goals and 44 assists through 56 games, Patrick Kane's 76 points puts him 17 clear of the next most productive players, making him a virtual lock to win the Art Ross Trophy.

But if there's anyone who might be able to challenge the Chicago Blackhawks winger, it's Sidney Crosby.

The Pittsburgh Penguins superstar is on an absolute tear as of late, earning the NHL's most recent first star of the week after recording eight points in his last three games.

Still, with only 22 goals and 27 assists through 50 games, Crosby is averaging less than a point per game on the season and sits 10th in overall scoring, 27 points behind Kane.

So how on earth could Crosby possibly catch Kane?

Career averages

For starters, the current production of both players is way off in terms of their career averages.

After a truly uncharacteristic start, in which he recorded only 27 points in his first 36 games, Crosby is only now beginning to come close to the kinds of numbers the hockey world has become accustomed to seeing out of arguably the best player on earth.

Sidney Crosby Goals Assists Points Shots Sh%
2015-16 0.44 0.54 0.98 3.16 13.9
Career 0.48 0.85 1.33 3.32 14.4

Kane had hit the 75-point mark only once before in his career prior to this season, and it's only because of his offensive outburst to start 2015-16 that he's now averaging a point per game for his career.

Patrick Kane Goals Assists Points Shots Sh%
2015-16 0.57 0.79 1.36 3.48 16.4
Career 0.38 0.63 1.00 3.04 12.3

On top of that, both players' shooting and success rates are also out of whack as compared to their career averages, giving further basis for a balancing of the scales as the season continues.

Games remaining

Even still, Kane is on pace for 111 points, while Crosby is in line for only 78.

But here's where the schedule comes in to play.

Chicago has played a league-high 56 games, meaning there's only 26 remaining on their schedule. Meanwhile, the Penguins have 31 games yet to play, having seen only 51 dates come and go. Quick math tells us Crosby has five more games to work with than Kane.

But is it enough time to make up the gap?

In 14 games to begin 2016, Crosby has recorded 13 goals and nine assists, good for an average of 1.57 points per game. Even if he were to maintain that level of play over the course of the next 31 games, it would only give him an additional 49 points, equalling his total to date and giving him 98 on the season.

That, of course, would fall well short of Kane's projected total.

Again we point back to the fact that Kane's numbers are well above what's become normal for him throughout his career, meaning there's reason to believe he will slow down and therefore not reach the 110-point mark.

Averaging a point per contest over the next 26 games would give Kane an additional (you guessed it) 26 points, or a total of 105.

So all things considered, Kane should still be able to hold Crosby off.

Health

A big X-factor here is health, with both players having become familiar with the injured reserve list in the past.

Crosby has yet to play a full 82-game season, missing seven over the past two season after three years of extensive injury issues. For his part, Kane's past two seasons have been cut very short due to leg and shoulder injuries.

It's a hypothetical caveat, as Kane and Crosby are presently healthy and playing at high levels. But the risk is there, and if either misses significant time, it could effectively end the wondering either way.

Conclusion

So, then, can Crosby catch Kane?

Speaking plainly, it's possible but unlikely, given the next-level way Kane is playing alongside rookie of the year candidate Artemi Panarin, and how Crosby started his season and the deep hole he finds himself in.

Having said that, pencil Crosby in for the runner-up spot, and don't be surprised if he's able to pull off the great scoring title comeback.

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