By the numbers: Are the 16 playoff spots spoken for?
With five weeks remaining on the NHL's regular season schedule, the race to secure a playoff spot should be kicking into high gear.
But are there any teams currently on the outside looking in that have a legitimate shot at one of the 16 postseason berths?
Eastern Conference
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings sit comfortably in the Eastern Conference wild-card spots, while a handful of teams are within six points of the latter. Only the Philadelphia Flyers, however, appear to have a decent shot at making up the difference.
| Team | GP | Points | Playoff Chances (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 65 | 76 | 87.2 |
| Detroit | 65 | 75 | 77.2 |
| Philadelphia | 64 | 71 | 32.8 |
| Carolina | 66 | 69 | 4.9 |
| New Jersey | 67 | 69 | 2.0 |
| Ottawa | 67 | 69 | 1.7 |
Detroit's minus-eight goal differential is also cause for concern, as the Red Wings are the only playoff team on the negative side of the ledger. But Philadelphia, which sits at minus-nine, isn't exuding much confidence in that area. All three teams, it should be noted, are positive possession clubs, with the Penguins (52) holding the advantage over Detroit (51.3) and Philadelphia (50.2) in terms of Corsi For at five-on-five.
What gives the Flyers somewhat of an advantage is their one game in hand on both Pittsburgh and Detroit, and even more on those below them in the standings. Philadelphia has three games remaining against their rivals from Pittsburgh, and two against Detroit, meaning all five games will carrying great significance for the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Western Conference
Out West, the situation appears to be more dire for teams on the outs.
Thanks to a recent hot streak, the Nashville Predators have all but locked down at least the first wild-card spot, leaving the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild to duke it out for the remaining "x" on the standings board.
| Team | GP | Points | Playoff Chances (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | 66 | 78 | 98.9 |
| Minnesota | 67 | 72 | 78.5 |
| Colorado | 67 | 70 | 20.3 |
Despite the slim two-point gap between the two clubs, the Wild appear to have a clear advantage over the Avalanche in this race.
On the surface, Minnesota's goal differential sits at plus-eight, while the Avalanche's sit at minus-14. And in terms of possession, Colorado is the league's worst in terms of Corsi For at five-on-five (44 percent), while the Wild rank 20th (48). Neither number bodes well for a long playoff run, but Minnesota seems to be the more solid bet to achieve enough regular season success to qualify.
So while there will certainly be some jockeying in terms of the final standings and playoff seeding, it would appear there's a good chance the 16 teams that will battle for the Stanley Cup have already been decided.
But if the 2014-15 Ottawa Senators taught us anything, nothing is decided until 82 games have been played by all 30 teams.
- Stats courtesy of Sports Club Stats