USA heavy favorite for gold, Canada expected to win group

While everyone memorializes the United States' once enormous basketball advantage over the world and claims the tide is shifting, the Olympic odds tell a different story.

The United States is a massive favorite, signaling that the gap between the U.S.' talent pool and every other country is still the size of the Eiffel Tower. It's true that more high-end talent is coming from around the globe at an unprecedented rate, but it's hard to see Team USA's supremacy ever fading when it crafts a team of its best.

Canada has developed quality basketball players in recent years, resulting in a competitive national team that has the second-best odds to win gold. Let's look at the favorites and break down each group before the Olympics tip off Saturday in Paris.

Gold medal odds

Odds via theScore Bet

Team USA is less a basketball team and more a collection of the world's greatest players. It's too often resembled a supremely talented yet discombobulated group, resulting in some surprisingly close exhibition finishes.

The United States finished 5-0 in scrimmages but experienced scares along the way, including a six-point win over Australia, a one-point victory over South Sudan, and a four-point win over Germany.

USA Basketball's problem is it relies on individual talent to outlast opponents rather than a team approach. That's not the worst problem to have; Team USA's talent alone will likely be enough to run the table to a gold medal. But if the exhibitions are any indication, it won't be a cakewalk.

Granted, they were meaningless showcases - USA Basketball's sloppiness and lackadaisical approach should improve with more reps in consequential games.

The U.S.' artistry should be enough to propel it to a fifth consecutive gold medal, but there are numerous other worthy contenders that could steal the glory.

Canada's backcourt duo, with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and NBA champion Jamal Murray, is unrivaled. Along with a host of other productive NBA players like Lu Dort and RJ Barrett, Canada has its best international roster ever, although Team USA beat the Canadians 86-72 in an exhibition earlier this month.

France's chemistry and unique play style make it a consistent contender. The French have a towering frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama - the winner and runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year this season - that'll be difficult for even the United States' improved interior attack to score on.

Serbia - the 2023 FIBA World Cup runner-up without Nikola Jokic - has a feisty and experienced roster. Giannis Antetokounmpo helped Greece qualify for its first Olympics since 2008, although the team isn't a threat.

Group A odds

Group A is the deepest group of the three. The top two teams from each group advance to the quarterfinals, along with the top two third-place teams. This group deserves - and will likely earn - three teams to advance.

Canada is the rightful favorite, but Australia could be worth a long-shot wager. The Aussies have a collection of crafty guards capable of getting downhill and creating shots for their teammates, including Josh Giddey, Patty Mills, Josh Green, Joe Ingles, Dyson Daniels, and Dante Exum. Australia beat France in a pre-Olympic bout.

Group B odds

The host French are considered a hotbed for rising basketball talent, but they've recently struggled on the international stage. After narrowly losing to the United States in the 2020 Olympic final, they bowed out early from the 2023 FIBA World Cup despite entering the event with hefty expectations.

France added Wembanyama, Bilal Coulibaly, and Frank Ntilikina to a roster featuring NBA players Gobert, Nicolas Batum, and Evan Fournier. Nevertheless, the team lost its last four exhibitions to Australia, Canada, Serbia, and Germany (France beat Germany in a scrimmage two days earlier). Batum missed one of those games and Wembanyama sat two, but the French still expect more.

Germany won the 2023 FIBA World Cup. The competition in that event was much weaker, but the German roster, led by Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner, has experience playing together.

Group C odds

Steph Curry, LeBron James, and Joel Embiid are the only three players who have started every game during Team USA's exhibitions.

Embiid has struggled with turnovers and offensive fit as an isolation-heavy player. He's often pulled from closing lineups in favor of Anthony Davis, who's been the U.S.' most impactful big. Pairing Davis with Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt has created a dominant rim-protecting duo in the second unit.

Team USA prioritized size while building the roster to prevent mismatches inside against Serbia's Jokic and France's frontcourt.

Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum have been stars off the bench. The U.S.' greatness lies in the fact its second unit is as, if not more, effective as its starters.

However, there's a clear hierarchy late in games. James' clutch takeovers show he's the go-to option in crunch time. The 39-year-old and two-time gold medalist has single-handedly taken over fourth quarters and saved Team USA from embarrassing exhibition losses.

Kevin Durant didn't play during the U.S.' showcases. USA Basketball's all-time leading scorer has been laboring with a calf injury but should return soon. He's another unstoppable scorer and a seamless fit in the squad's lethal lineups.

Serbia is the United States' biggest threat in the group, yet Team USA defeated the Serbs by 26 in an exhibition.

South Sudan's miraculous run to the Olympics is a great story, but its near-upset over Team USA was an anomaly.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.