Forecasting USA Basketball's 2021 squad

The Tokyo Olympics being postponed until summer 2021 both opens and closes the door on certain players' chances of suiting up for Team USA in the men's basketball tournament.

But beyond the age questions (Kyle Lowry will be 35 in 2021), and how much a player has played or will play in the next year (Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson will all be coming off major injuries), there are other factors to take into consideration.

For one, USA Basketball probably hasn't assembled its most optimal squad since 2012, and even then it was missing big names like Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin.

Forecasting potential issues with next year's team begins with Kawhi Leonard. The Los Angeles Clippers' mercurial star has a spotty relationship with national team head coach Gregg Popovich. Leonard's load management history is also well-documented, and he could be a free agent next summer if the veteran declines his player option for 2021-22. With those question marks, we're removing him from consideration.

Here's our prediction for how the team will break down:

Point guards: Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker

While Curry is inarguably the most accomplished point guard of his generation, the Golden State Warriors' three-time champion has never suited up for Team USA in the Olympics. However, he did help the country capture gold at the World Cup in 2010 and 2014. He'll be 33 next summer in what will likely be his last chance at Olympic gold.

Similarly, Lillard has never played for the senior team in either of the major international tournaments. In addition to being excellent distributors, both he and Curry possess the long-range shooting ability to play off the ball if required.

Walker played on last summer's ill-fated seventh-place Team USA squad at the FIBA Basketball World Cup. However, the team's poor result can hardly be pinned on him alone. In fact, committing to his country when many of the 29-year-old's star contemporaries bowed out of consideration strengthens Walker's case for inclusion on the 2021 roster.

Wings: Bradley Beal, Paul George, James Harden, Khris Middleton, Jayson Tatum

Harden is an offense unto himself. The 2018 MVP can excel as either a complementary off-ball piece in a star-studded starting lineup, or as the driving force for a bench-heavy unit. Beal does much of the same, but he may be the main victim of Team USA's incredible guard depth.

George would be the lone holdover for the reigning Olympic champions. He's way overqualified as a 3-and-D role player, but that's exactly what playing on Team USA requires: All-NBA-level talents checking their egos for a common goal. Middleton, who played alongside Walker at the 2019 FIBA tournament, falls into the George archetype too.

Tatum can play the three in bigger lineups, but he's also perhaps the prototypical stretch-four in today's NBA. During his breakout third year, the Boston Celtics forward has shot 39.8% on 7.1 threes per game. He'll be just 23 years old next summer, and younger than anyone who was on the 2016 team. But Tatum has logged plenty of big-game experience already during his young career.

Bigs: Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Zion Williamson

James has played in three Olympics, but he hasn't suited up for his country since 2012. If his Los Angeles Lakers make a grueling, deep playoff run between now and summer 2021, he could pass on a national team send-off. If he participates, James and NBA running mate Davis will form the dream frontcourt, possessing all the tools - passing, shooting, defense, size, athleticism, and positional versatility - to lead a dynamic and dangerous lineup.

Every Team USA squad features at least one center willing to do the dirty work on behalf of his more heralded teammates (think Tyson Chandler in 2012, or DeAndre Jordan in 2016). The Miami Heat's Adebayo is a little green, but if he expands on his breakthrough third season (in which he's averaged 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game), we could be discussing whether he should start in Tokyo, rather than debating if the 22-year-old merits inclusion.

Williamson is the lone player listed here who has yet to make an All-Star team, though that will probably be rectified if his rookie-campaign performance continues forward. Nearly every Team USA roster features an emerging star who's still a few years away from his prime, and unlikely to play a significant role in his first go-around. It wouldn't be a shock to see Zion groomed in that way, just as Anthony Davis was in 2012.

With all that rationale in mind, here's how the rotation would look:

But what if history repeats itself and America's top players withdraw from consideration for the final roster?

Here's a projection of how Team USA's "B Squad" could look.