After undergoing a major renovation over the past three years, Royal Troon Golf Club in Ayrshire, Scotland is ready to host its seventh Open Championship in the 145th running of the event.
Royal Troon has played true to an Open course, with the three most recent winners - Todd Hamilton (2004), Justin Leonard (1997) and Mark Calcavecchia (1989) - illustrating the wide-open nature of the tournaments.
Year after year, tournaments are made and stolen away by poor luck with weather. Monitor the forecast for Friday and Saturday closely, favoring players with the most ideal tee times. The early forecast seems to be favoring the draw of Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.
Here's a look at the past three Open Championship leaderboards (* - denotes victory in a playoff):
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Phil Mickelson (-3) | 1. Rory McIlroy (-17) | 1. *Zach Johnson (-15) |
| 2. Henrik Stenson | T2. Rickie Fowler | T2. Marc Leishman |
| T3. Ian Poulter | T2. Sergio Garcia | T2. Louis Oosthuizen |
| T3. Adam Scott | ||
| T3. Lee Westwood |
Per FantasyInsiders, the key stats for Royal Troon Golf Club are Par 4 Scoring (P4S), Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SGOT), Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SGAG), Strokes Gained: Putting (SGP), Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB). These stats have been strengths of previous winners and need to be used in combination with recent form and course history.
Top Tier, Top Dollar, Top Results
Adam Scott
Fade the Big Four of Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Rory McIlroy at your own peril, but Scott will likely come with lower ownership, and he offers some relief against the salary cap. He, along with Day and Johnson, are the only golfers on tour this year to win in back-to-back events.
Scott's victories came back in February and March, but they occurred at marquee events in The Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship. The No. 8 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking has moved up from No. 12 at the end of 2015.
Scott hasn't missed the cut at The Open Championship since the final year it was known as the British Open Championship in 2009, at the Ailsa Championship Course. He has ranked inside the top 10 in each of the past four years, including a 10th-place finish last year at St. Andrews.
Sergio Garcia
Garcia is a great pairing with Scott for those owners fading the top four golfers. Garcia and Scott have a reasonable combined salary, with enough value lower down to allow you to field a competitive roster.
Garcia finished T5 in the U.S. Open on the PGA Tour and at the European Tour's BMW International Open. The Spaniard remains without a major championship, but it has long been thought his best chance would come at the third major of the year. He finished sixth in 2015 and was the runner-up in 2014. He missed the cut at Royal Troon in 2004, but has made three straight.
With public perception and personal bias being split on Garcia, his ownership never seems to rise too high. He ranks 11th in SGOT, fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 10th in BoB. Like Scott, he'll have the preferred afternoon/morning draw for Thursday and Friday.
Martin Kaymer
The former World No. 1 has dropped to 52nd in the world, down another 25 spots from the end of 2015. He made the cut at each of the year's first two majors, finishing 49th at the Masters and 37th at the U.S. Open.
He has had far more success on the European Tour. He finished 13th at last week's Scottish Open, ending a run of four consecutive top 10 results. He has made three consecutive cuts at The Open Championship, including a 12th-place result last year. His career-best finish was a T7 in 2010.
He hasn't played enough PGA Tour rounds to qualify for the statistical ranks, but it's clear his play around the green has been his downfall. He will have some extra incentive this week, as he is right on the bubble for the European Ryder Cup Team. A strong showing at The Open could solidify his place.
Best Value With a Chance
Patrick Reed
Another player with Ryder Cup incentive, Reed confirmed his attendance at the 2016 Olympic Summer Games, following the withdrawals of fellow countrymen Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson.
Reed has nine top-10 finishes this season, most recently an eighth-place showing at the Memorial Tournament. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, following a 49th at the Masters. He has played in just two Open Championships, missing the cut in 2014 and finishing 20th last year.
He ranks 48th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Par 5 Scoring, third in SGAG and 22nd in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks eighth in scrambling and fifth in Overall Putting Average. He's considerably cheaper than he usually is in the U.S.A., but a lack of top results will still help temper ownership.
Chris Wood
Not very well known to fans of the PGA Tour, Wood ranks fifth in the Race to Dubai, behind Danny Willett, Rory McIlroy, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Louis Oosthuizen. He has four top 10s on the European Tour this season, including a victory at the prominent BMW PGA Championship.
He has played in six PGA events, making the cut in each, with a top finish of 20th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He placed 23rd at the U.S. Open and 42nd at the Masters. He didn't participate in last year's Open Championship, but he finished 23rd in 2014 and 64th in 2013.
He's in an excellent position to be the top European finisher, and he'll come with much lower ownership than the likes of Rory McIlroy, at a much lower salary.
Francesco Molinari
An up-and-down start to the season for Molinari has led to an eighth-place finish at the PGA's Quicken Loans National and a runner-up finish at the 100th Open de France in his two most recent events. He's trending strongly in the positive direction. While his putting stats have been quite poor in the U.S., he ranks among the European Tour leaders.
He has made four consecutive cuts at The Open Championship, with his best result coming as a ninth in 2013 at Muirfield. He'll have the afternoon/morning split, setting up for a quality start to this year's tournament.
If Everything Goes Right
Alexander Noren
Ownership may be high for the winner of the 2016 Scottish Open, but a low salary makes it difficult to pass on Noren altogether. Not only is he coming off a victory in a marquee event which features plenty of top PGA talent, but he finished eighth at the preceding 100th Open de France. He did, however, miss the cut at the U.S. Open.
He last appeared in the 2013 Open Championship, but withdrew following an opening-round 83. He came ninth at Royal Lytham St. Anne the previous year, his best Open finish to date. While the history is lacking, it's rare to get someone with his quality of recent form at such a discount, while ownership will be much lower for a European star than one from the PGA circuit.
Jon Rahm
Unlike Bryson DeChambeau before him, Rahm did not disappoint in his PGA debut as a professional. He finished T3 at the Quicken Loans National, after his final amateur appearance at the U.S. Open. His salary remains extremely low, thanks in part to his inexperience and the overwhelming strength of a major field.
The Spaniard has never participated in a European Tour event, either as an amateur or a professional. His inexperience and higher than minimum salary will temper ownership, though nothing but quality finishes this season and a low salary are too tempting to pass up.
Colin Montgomerie
Monty missed the cut at last week's Scottish Open, but as we saw with Bernhard Langer at the Masters, he has had some high-quality results on the Champions Tour this season. His most recent top 10 was a fourth at the Mitsubishi Electric Classic in April, and he finished 13th at the Constellation Senior Players Championship in mid-June.
That said, Montgomerie is still the narrative play of the week. The Scotsman grew up playing Royal Troon - back when it was known simply as Troon - and the 53-year-old has said this will be his final Open Championship. while he has never won a major of any sort, Montgomerie did finish as the runner-up in 2005. He finished T25 at Royal Troon in 2004 and T24 in 1997.
He has decent course history here, and he has more experience on this course than anyone else in the field. He'll start his final Open with Thursday's earliest tee time, which is expected to feature the best weather of the week.
Top Fades
Danny Willett
The 2016 Masters champion has missed each of his past two cuts on the European Tour, and he finished a disappointing T37 at the U.S. Open. He has largely struggled on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean since his breakout victory, and he's unlikely to live up to the major-champion price tag. There are better options in his top tier and below.
Zach Johnson
While the 2015 Open champion is a decent course fit yet again, ownership will be incredibly high for his defense. He has had quality finishes of late, including an eighth at the U.S. Open and a 10th at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He finished just 47th at the 2014 Open, and he missed the cut in 2013.
Paul Dunne
Dunne entered the 2015 Open Championship with a share of the 54-hole lead, but quickly fell out of contention with a Sunday round of 78. He came out of nowhere last year, as it was his lone event on either tour all season. He has participated in 17 events between the two tours this season, but has made just nine cuts, including missed cuts at the Scottish and French Opens.