Workday Charity Open betting preview: Iron play the key at Muirfield

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After hitting back-to-back winners, we came up short at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week despite a valiant fourth-place showing by Adam Hadwin. That's going to happen more often than not, though, especially when eventual champion Bryson DeChambeau was priced at +600.

It's time to turn the page to the Workday Charity Open, the first of two consecutive tournaments being played at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio.

A field of 156 players is headlined by Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Jon Rahm. They will compete for the $1.16-million winner's check, with the event serving as an appetizer for next week's Memorial Tournament and Tiger Woods' potential return.

The course

• 7,456 yards, par 72
• Designed by Jack Nicklaus
• Six par 4s over 450 yards
• Considered a second-shot course that rewards elite iron play
• Bentgrass greens are smaller than average and well-protected by bunkers

Previous winners at Muirfield

2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19) over Adam Scott
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15) over Byeong Hun An, Kyle Stanley
2017: Jason Dufner (-13) over Rickie Fowler, Anirban Lahiri
2016: William McGirt (-15) over Jon Curran
2015: David Lingmerth (-15) over Justin Rose
2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13) over Kevin Na
2013: Matt Kuchar (-12) over Kevin Chappell
2012: Tiger Woods (-9) over Andres Romero, Rory Sabbatini

The favorites

Thomas and Koepka share the co-favorite honors after both players took the weekend off at the Travelers Championship. The former missed the cut after a bad week of iron play and putting, and the latter withdrew on Thursday after his caddie tested positive for COVID-19.

Let both players get their feet wet at Muirfield and circle back next week when their odds could be a little more inflated for the Memorial.

Cantlay is the most intriguing option of the group priced below +1500. He won at Muirfield last season and is coming off a T11 showing at the Travelers, during which he was fifth in the field in total birdies in his first event since February.

Rose at +2200 is a fine play. The Englishman is playing much better following the break and has contended at Muirfield before. With that said, waiting a week for longer odds at the Memorial might be the better option.

The next tier

Morikawa stands out in this group. If the focus this week is on iron play, which led to Woods', Matsuyama's, and Cantlay's success at Muirfield, the 23-year-old can flourish at Nicklaus' layout. Morikawa has arguably been the best ball-striker on Tour since he made his debut in 2019.

Reed is coming off of an ugly missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but that's what you get from him: all or nothing. He's only a month removed from contending at the Charles Schwab Challenge while being priced at a reasonable +3000.

Niemann was in the mix three weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and returns to a course at which he's experienced success. If he continues his quality ball-striking, he should find himself contending on Sunday.

Speith, An, Hadwin, and Fitzpatrick don't belong in this range. Spieth isn't playing well, An is priced at +4500 only because of his course history, Hadwin has had very little success at Muirfield, and Fitzpatrick isn't long enough off the tee to contend.

Leishman, on the other hand, is fantastic value at +5000.

The long shots

The Rocket Mortgage Classic was the time for a long shot to hit. Matthew Wolff was +12500 and had a great opportunity to win, Danny Willett was in the hunt, and even Ryan Armour held a piece of the lead at one point. It's tough to envision another player with +10000 odds or longer contending this week in a much stronger field, but there's always a chance.

Here are a few long shots worth considering:

Shane Lowry (+10000): The Irishman won at Firestone Country Club in 2015, which is important because both Woods and Matsuyama have won at Firestone and Muirfield. He's the No. 25 ranked player in the world and won a major championship less than a year ago. Getting Lowry at +10000 is a steal. Top-five odds: +1900. Top-10 odds: +850.

Russell Henley (+11000): He was third in strokes gained: tee-to-green at the Travelers thanks to a stellar week of iron play. He also came sixth at Muirfield in 2013. Top-five odds: +2100. Top-10 odds: +950.

Max Homa (+11000): Homa has gained a boatload of strokes off the tee and through approach shots in 2020, and he won at Quail Hollow last year, which possesses similar characteristics to Muirfield Village. Top-five odds: +2100. Top-10 odds: +950.

Picks to win

Collin Morikawa (+3500)

Morikawa's game suffered after he missed a short putt at Colonial to lose in a playoff to Daniel Berger. He battled to make the weekend at the RBC Heritage and missed his first cut as a pro at the Travelers the next week. However, hitting the reset button is a good thing for the youngster.

He's one of the best ball-strikers in the world with phenomenal distance control. Had he made the cut at TPC River Highlands, his price would be comparable to Hovland's. Instead, a recharged Morikawa is a value play and heads to a course that rewards his most dangerous tool.

Marc Leishman (+5000)

Leishman loves Muirfield Village. He's never missed the cut and collected four top-15 results in eight appearances at the Memorial. The 2020 Farmers Insurance Open champion has gained strokes through approach shots in eight consecutive events, and there's simply no reason he should be priced above +4000. Take the extra value and run.

Max Homa (+11000)

There are no other long shots in the field who are posting consistent results comparable to Homa's. He's earned three top-15 finishes this season and gained strokes tee-to-green in eight consecutive events. His win at Quail Hollow in 2019 should only help the 29-year-old's confidence, as it presents a very similar set of challenges to Muirfield Village.