3M Open betting preview: Question marks at top open door for long shots

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The PGA Tour is in Minnesota this week for the second running of the 3M Open. The 156-man field is considerably weaker than recent events and pales in comparison to last week's Memorial Tournament.

However, the lack of name recognition at the top creates opportunities for those with longer odds to breakthrough. Additionally, the stars at TPC Twin Cities this week - Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Tommy Fleetwood - are all surrounded by question marks, furthering the likelihood of a long-shot winner.

The course

• 7,431 yards, par 71
• Bentgrass greens
• Designed by Arnold Palmer
• All three par 5s between 590-600 feet
• Water in play on 15 holes

Last year's result

Matthew Wolff won the inaugural 3M Open last year in thrilling fashion over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. Wolff sank a lengthy eagle putt on the final hole to claim his first PGA Tour victory at 21-under par.

The favorites

Johnson tops the betting board at +1000. He's two starts removed from winning the Travelers Championship but he also shot 80-80 at the Memorial Tournament. The 36-year-old does have an extremely short memory, but his short price isn't worth the risk.

Koepka also struggled last week at Muirfield. He made the cut but admitted following the third round that his knee isn't 100% healthy, which could be why his recent results haven't been very good. Koepka is a pass at +1200, especially at a non-major with an injury concern.

Finau is an interesting option. He proved his game is in form after holding the 36-hole lead at the Memorial. But the 30-year-old simply does not win enough to warrant a recommendation at +1400.

That leaves two Englishmen in Fleetwood and Paul Casey. The former is making his first start since golf's restart, so there are concerns surrounding his form. The latter - like Finau - isn't a known winner despite being one of the best ball-strikers in the field.

Fleetwood is the best selection among the favorites. You could argue his game is no worse than Koepka's at the moment. He also finished third at the Honda Classic in his second-most recent PGA Tour start.

The next tier

See how quickly this field turned ugly? It doesn't bode well for this group's overall strength when Lucas Glover is headlining the second tier on the betting board.

Bubba Watson stands out statistically. He gained 7.8 strokes on approach shots last week at Muirfield and has gained shots off the tee in seven of his last eight starts. If that kind of ball-striking continues, Watson could begin to rack up birdies and get himself in contention.

Wolff - the defending champion - played very well last week. However, his inconsistent career results make him tough to back at +2800.

Erik van Rooyen is worth a look at +4000. The South African has familiarity with the area after attending the University of Minnesota and was second in strokes gained: approach last week behind Jon Rahm. He's a superb ball-striker who'll need a few putts to drop in order to contend.

Lastly, Russell Henley is playing incredibly well after gaining over nine strokes tee to green in back-to-back events. His price is a little too short compared to options further down the board, though.

The long shots

With a lack of compelling options at the top, the door is wide-open for a player with +5000 odds or greater to steal the 3M Open.

Here are a few other names to consider in the outright, top-five, and top-10 markets:

Doc Redman (+5000) is one of the field's best ball-strikers and has played well since the restart. He missed the cut at the Memorial, but that only helps inflate his number for a week where he has a legitimate chance at winning.

Max Homa (+5500) continued to hit the ball well at Muirfield but he missed the cut for a second straight week. However, his iron play remains at the level it was at when he was collecting top-10 finishes earlier this season. If Homa can beat a loaded field at Quail Hollow in 2019, he can certainly get the job done in Minnesota.

Will Gordon (+7000) emerged onto the scene at the Travelers Championship en route to a T-3 finish. If Wolff can win at TPC Twin Cities, Gordon - the PGA Tour rookie with an outstanding college pedigree - can do so as well.

Rafa Cabrera Bello (+8000) is only an option because of his world ranking. The Spaniard is No. 52 in the world but is being priced alongside players who are outside the top 200. He hasn't been playing great but he does possess the skills to win a weaker PGA Tour event.

Richy Werenski (+10000) played well at the 3M Open last year, where he shot a 66 in the final round. Werenski also turned in solid efforts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Workday Charity Open. He ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained: tee to green over his past 12 rounds.

Picks to win

Bubba Watson (+2400)

Watson is the most prolific winner in this field whose last name isn't Johnson or Koepka. He hit the ball great at Muirfield last week and has been in the mix a few times already this season. Watson's number might be higher in other locations but he's still worth the risk at +2400.

Erik van Rooyen (+4000)

Van Rooyen is a relative unknown to North American golf fans despite being the 43rd-ranked golfer in the world and one of the best iron players in this field. He doesn't win a lot, with his only European Tour victory coming in 2019, but he's more than capable of collecting his first title stateside in a weak PGA Tour field.

Doc Redman (+5000)

Redman ranks second in the field in strokes gained: tee to green over his past 12 rounds. He was the first-round leader at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three weeks ago and finished in a tie for 11th the week prior at the Travelers Championship. The 22-year-old fits the mold of players who can perform well at TPC Twin Cities. If his putter can turn in a field-average performance, he should have a late tee time Sunday.