Corales Puntacana betting preview: Long shots to thrive in Caribbean
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Last week was a complete whiff on Bryson DeChambeau. His aggressive strategy paid off at Winged Foot after many, including Rory McIlroy, believed a bomb-and-gouge approach wouldn't work. Luckily, there's another PGA Tour event that allows us to turn the page quickly.
The Tour heads to the Dominican Republic this week for the Corarles Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. Due to its slot on the schedule, all of the biggest names in golf have elected to skip the tournament, but from a betting perspective, it's one of the more fun events on the calendar.
The course
- 7,666 yards, par 72
- Paspalum grass greens
- Four par 5s, only one under 560 yards
- Six par 4s under 450 yards
- Comparable venues: Sea Island Golf Club (RSM Classic), El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic)
Past winners
2019: Graeme McDowell (-18) over Mackenzie Hughes, Chris Stroud
2018: Brice Garnett (-18) over Keith Mitchell
2017: Nate Lashley (-20) on Korn Ferry Tour
2016: Dominic Bozzelli (-24) on Korn Ferry Tour
The favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mackenzie Hughes | +1200 |
| Will Zalatoris | +1200 |
| Corey Conners | +1300 |
| Sam Burns | +1400 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +1500 |
| Henrik Stenson | +1500 |
| Adam Long | +1800 |
It's not the usual set of names headlining the top of the betting board, which makes diving into this range more avoidable than it typically is.
Mackenzie Hughes is playing great and finished second in Punta Cana last year, but +1200 is hard to back. The same goes for Will Zalatoris and Corey Conners, who are both fantastic ball-strikers and could easily win this week, but their numbers are far too short.
Sam Burns would be the only player to consider from this range. He came seventh at the Safeway Open and 12th last year in Punta Cana. A win is coming soon for him and this event feels like his best chance to break through.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charles Howell III | +2200 |
| Matthias Schwab | +2500 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Denny McCarthy | +3000 |
| Adam Schenk | +3500 |
| Charley Hoffman | +3500 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | +3500 |
| Pat Perez | +3500 |
| Sepp Straka | +3500 |
There isn't a ton to be said about this range, either. The difference between players priced at +2500 compared to the ones in the +7000 range is minimal and paying up to back a player in this group isn't recommended.
With that said, two players do have some value in this area. Pat Perez has won in Mayakoba - a comparable venue - and finished ninth during his last start in Napa, California. Kristoffer Ventura is also worth a look. The 25-year-old came seventh at the Safeway Open and should find himself in contention again.
The long shots
Before getting into the picks to win in Puntacana, which, to no surprise, are all long shots, here are two others worth a look in the top-five or top-10 markets.
Rob Oppenheim (+7500): He gained 5.4 strokes through approach shots at the Safeway Open and is two-for-two in cuts made in Puntacana.
J.J Spaun (+10000): He's coming off a T9 finish at the Safeway Open where he gained 8.1 strokes tee to green. Additionally, two of Spaun's three career-best results came at the RSM Classic in 2017 and Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018. If he's rounding into form, the timing couldn't be more perfect as he heads to a course that will fit his game perfectly.
Picks to win
Will Gordon (+6000)
Will Gordon's talent is matched by few in the field, yet you are getting a juicy price on him compared to similarly skilled players, most of which are at the top of the betting board. He finished top-10 at the RSM Classic and top-20 at the Puerto Rico Open during his young career and should be able to overpower Corales Golf Club with his length.
Chris Kirk (+6000)
Perhaps the best value on the board is +6000 with Chris Kirk. The former top-20 player in the world is regaining his form after stepping away from golf to deal with alcohol-related issues. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour seven starts ago and has a fantastic record at the RSM Classic, where he's won and finished inside the top five twice. Plus, his strokes gained tee-to-green numbers rank among the highest in the field over the past 50 rounds.
Doug Ghim (+6000)
Doug Ghim gained over five strokes tee to green in two of his last three events, both resulting in top-20 finishes. He has the firepower to score on the par 5s at Corales Golf Club and his success on the Korn Ferry Tour suggests he can make birdies when needed, as a lot of tournaments on the secondary circuit end with winning scores around 20-under.