Phoenix Open betting preview: Berger bound for success in Scottsdale

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Well, we whiffed on Matthew Wolff last week, who played poorly in Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open before withdrawing due to a hand injury. Adam Scott earned a chance entering the final round while only two back, but no one could track down Patrick Reed in the end.

Let's turn the page to the Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale, which should provide plenty of Sunday afternoon drama as a lead-in to the Super Bowl. The field in Arizona this week is loaded, with Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele headlining the event.

The course

• TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona
• 7,261 yards, par 71
• Bermuda grass greens
• All three par 5s are between 550-560 yards
• Driveable par-4 17th
• Strong emphasis on strokes gained: approach

Past winners

2020: Webb Simpson (-17) in a playoff over Tony Finau
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17) over Branden Grace
2018: Gary Woodland (-18) in a playoff over Chez Reavie
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) in a playoff over Simpson
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14) in a playoff over Fowler
2015: Brooks Koepka (-15) over three players
2014: Kevin Stadler (-16) over Bubba Watson, Graham DeLaet
2013: Phil Mickelson (-28) over Brandt Snedeker

The favorites

Rahm is the deserving favorite at +700, with Thomas and Schauffele following close behind.

The favorites' history at TPC Scottsdale is strong. Rahm has played in the event four times while never finishing worse than a tie for 16th, and he's improved upon his previous result every year. Thomas has finished third in back-to-back years, and Schauffele has ended the week inside the top 17 in all three of his appearances.

Then there's Webb Simpson, who's the defending champion and was also a runner-up in 2017. The course rewards strong approach play, so Simpon's success in the desert makes sense.

McIlroy is making his first start at the event and is tempting at +1000 if you're choosing among the favorites. However, Daniel Berger at +1800 offers the best bang for your buck in the top tier.

The next tier

Due to the abundance of talent at the top, the +2000 range is rather barren. Hideki Matsuyama is a two-time winner of the Phoenix Open, but he hasn't shown the consistent iron play that made him a serious weekly contender.

The names at the bottom of his range provide the most value. Brooks Koepka is coming off of three straight missed cuts and he's clearly not in great form, but +3800 for a former Phoenix Open champion of his caliber is very appealing.

Scottie Scheffler (+4500) and Bubba Watson (+5000) should also pique your interest. Scheffler was one off the lead after Round 1 last week before collapsing on Friday, but it's clear his game is coming around. Meanwhile, Watson has posted top-four results during his last two trips to Scottsdale, and he struck the ball brilliantly for the majority of last season.

The long shots

Here's a quick stat before diving into the long shots.

That trend will likely continue because of the plethora of quality names in the field. But if you want to try your luck with a long shot, or you're interested in betting the top-five or top-10 markets, here are a few names to consider:

• Russell Henley (+7000): He struck the ball great at the Sony Open before missing the cut at The American Express. Henley continues to be one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour over the past six months.
• Matt Kuchar (+11000): His odds are very large this week, which reflects Kuchar's recent play. But he's logged four straight top-16 finishes in Phoenix, and Kuchar could regain some mojo at a course that fits his game.
• Henrik Norlander (+11000): He was a runner-up last week at Torrey Pines and finished tied for 12th at The American Express. His tee-to-green game is among the top 10 in the field over his past 12 rounds.

Picks to win

Daniel Berger (+1800)

Berger lines up well this week in Scottsdale for many reasons.

First, he's simply playing great. Berger has missed one cut over his last 20 events, a stretch that includes a win and eight other top 10s. He finished 10th at the Tournament of Champions and seventh at the Sony Open to begin his year.

Then there's his course history. He's played the Phoenix Open six times, with Berger's lone missed cut coming when a wrist injury was impacting his performance, resulting in a world rankings plummet. Berger has finished inside the top 11 in four of the other six appearances.

His play is even with the other elite players in the field, but Berger isn't being priced accordingly. Take the discount at +1800 and run.

Brooks Koepka (+3800)

Backing Koepka at +3800 is a wager on his upside. He's not playing as well as we expect him to each week, but most of Koepka's top-tier finishes over the past year have come out of nowhere. You can't expect him to consistently rattle off top-five finishes and get this type of value for a former Phoenix Open winner.

Additionally, he showed signs of life last week at Torrey Pines, even while missing the cut. Koepka played solidly on Day 1 at the tougher South Course, gaining strokes off the tee and with his approach play.

Gary Woodland (+7000)

Finally, we're going back to the well with Gary Woodland at +7000. He's a former champion at TPC Scottsdale, and if the veteran is as healthy as he says, Woodland's odds don't align with his chances of winning.

He lost a bunch of strokes off the tee last week at Torrey Pines, but the more forgiving TPC Scottsdale should help his cause. He should rebound off the tee and give himself better opportunities to attack the pin, leading to a good chance to be in the thick of things on Sunday.