Honda Classic betting preview: Niemann poised for win No. 2

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After going back to Justin Thomas for the third straight event, he finally came through with a victory for us at the Players Championship. The process worked - we capitalized on an undervalued Thomas who showed real signs of life at the WGC-Workday Championship.

Let's keep the wins coming.

Next up is the Honda Classic from PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The event features a 144-man field that lacks star power but provides plenty of opportunity to cash a nice ticket with how difficult the venue can play.

The course

• PGA National Champion Course
• 7,125 yards, par 70
• Bermudagrass greens
• Deadly stretch from Nos. 15-17 called "The Bear Trap"
• Water in play on 15 holes
• Can get extremely windy
• Both par 5s reachable by most

Past winners

2020: Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes
2019: Keith Mitchell (-9) over Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka
2018: Justin Thomas (-8) over Luke List
2017: Rickie Fowler (-12) over Gary Woodland, Morgan Hoffmann
2016: Adam Scott (-9) over Sergio Garcia
2015: Padraig Harrington (-6) over Daniel Berger
2014: Russell Henley (-8) in playoff over three players
2013: Michael Thompson (-9) over Geoff Ogilvy
2012: Rory McIlroy (-12) over Tom Gillis, Tiger Woods

The favorites

The list of favorites is short this week - we even had to bring in Joaquin Niemann and Lee Westwood at +2000 to help fill this section out.

A strong case could be made for both Daniel Berger and Sungjae Im, but the odds are far too short for either of them.

It's tough to envision Lee Westwood contending for the third week in a row, especially after coming so close the last two weeks.

It's Niemann who deserves the most attention. You could argue his game is not too far from Im's but he's double the price. Niemann has gained strokes off the tee in 12 straight recorded events, which will go a long way in avoiding big numbers at PGA National.

The next tier

Adam Scott and Russell Henley - two former winners of the Honda Classic - open the next tier. Irishman Shane Lowry, who finished eighth last week at Sawgrass, is up there as well.

But we're going to bypass the majority of this range and drop down to both Cameron Davis and Brendan Steele at +4000.

Davis finished tied for eighth at the Honda last year and has performed better than expected to begin this season. He went on a four-event run on the west coast where he gained an average of seven strokes tee to green and had a shot at winning the American Express. Steele has played well at PGA National with four top-15s and only one missed cut in his last nine appearances at the event.

Doug Ghim at +4500 is also a nice option but you might be buying a little high after he played in the penultimate pairing last week at The Players.

Long shots

The Honda Classic has been generous to long shots in recent years. Keith Mitchell, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, and Michael Thompson were all winners in the last nine years with odds well over +10000.

Here are a few long shots to consider to win outright or finish within the top 10.

• Matt Wallace (+6500): The Englishman played well last week at Sawgrass and will not shy away if the conditions get tough at PGA National.
• J.T. Poston (+6500): He loves playing on Bermudagrass and is 3-for-3 in cuts made at the Honda Classic. He was 6-over through eight holes last week but battled back to play his final 64 holes at 11-under to finish in a tie for 22nd.
• Kyoung Hun Lee (+9500): The South Korean gained 6.8 strokes through his ball-striking last week (off the tee plus approach) and finished in a tie for 41st. Lee was a runner-up four starts ago at the Phoenix Open and tied for seventh at the 2019 Honda Classic.
• Richy Werenski (+10000): He finished tied for fourth two weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational - another difficult Florida venue.

Picks to win

Joaquin Niemann (+2000)

Niemann contended at the beginning of 2021 but walked away with two runner-up results instead of his second career PGA Tour win. His results since haven't been anything to write home about, but he's showing consistency in all facets of the game despite not having his best stuff.

However, at his best, Niemann shouldn't have much trouble around PGA National. He's long and accurate off the tee and can get hot with his irons. He had his best putting performance at Sawgrass last week, so perhaps he found something with the flatstick that will carry over into this week.

Finally, at +2000 - the third-shortest odds on the board - the Chilean can be considered as a value. He's often priced around Im in other fields, but because Niemann is not the defending champion, you are getting double the odds.

Cameron Davis (+4000)

The young Aussie is arguably playing the best golf of his career and is now heading to a venue he's had success at already. Davis is a great ball-striker and can get equally as hot with his putter, but he simply hasn't put it all together ... yet.

It's not ideal that Davis failed to bring his form from California to Florida. He's missed back-to-back cuts but did finish tied for eighth at the Honda last year, so the hope is he has some positive feelings returning to PGA National.

Additionally, Davis should be able to handle the wind and will have the chance to add his name beside fellow Australians Scott, Geoff Ogilvy, Stuart Appleby, Craig Perks, and Craig Parry, who have all either won or finished as a runner-up at the Honda Classic since 1994.

Chez Reavie (+11500)

Reavie missed the cut last week at The Players but was locked in with his ball-striking. He gained 1.4 strokes off the tee and four more through approach shots in only two rounds. It was his ice-cold putter that led to a short week.

But Reavie has been putting it well as of late, with positive strokes gained on the greens in four of his past six events. So it's easier to treat last week's performance as an outlier rather than a trend.

If his ball-striking continues and his putter heats up a little, Reavie is a steal at +11500.