WGC Match Play betting: Embrace golf's madness

In the world of sports betting this month, March Madness sucks up all the attention, so we took a week to bask in the glory of finding an outright winner with Cameron Smith at a bizarre and messy Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. If you had action during Sam Burns' repeat win at Innisbrook last week, I applaud your passion for the game.

Format

The game has changed this week, and with it, so does our own format. Professional golf's answer to the NCAA Tournament is their own bracket tournament. Austin Country Club hosts 16 separate four-player round-robin groups, with the winner advancing to a Sweet 16 bracket of their own. As such, we won't worry about draws or fades, but instead pick some matches tourney-style.

Handicapping strategy

In a matchplay setting, you can play awful for a day and still win; you can play amazing and still get beat. While predictive metrics like strokes gained can be helpful, many golfers will tell you the strategy and mindset for matchplay is just different.

Unlike the NCAA Tournament, there isn't much difference between the top-ranked golfer in each group and the 64th-ranked golfer in the field. Winning a stroke-play event is arguably more difficult, but winning in match play requires mental toughness - and a special personality - to go along with extended quality of play.

Understanding that world ranking is nearly irrelevant in golf's most randomized event is a good start to find value. Here are the finalists since the tournament moved to Austin in 2016.

The victories from Day and Johnson act as more of an outlier than a trend - the average seed for a semifinalist in the last five tournaments is 27.3. From 2017 to 2019, just five of the 16 top seeds survived their group each year. In 2021, just one of the top 16 seeds won their group, and it took until the second hole of a playoff for Jon Rahm to edge Ryan Palmer for a spot in the bracket.

Anything can happen, so value is the name of this game. In most cases, anything at a plus price is interesting. The first of three 32 matchup days start on Wednesday, so here's a bakers' dozen worth of bets for group play.

Matchups

Keegan Bradley (+110) over Jordan Spieth

Playing in good form, Bradley is a fighter and can handle Spieth's ability to salvage par from wild places.

Cameron Tringale (+130) over Will Zalatoris

Putting takes a special level of import in match play, and that's where Zalatoris struggles.

Paul Casey (-138) over Corey Conners

Casey's found some form lately, and outside of an illness that forced him to withdraw in 2016, he's been dangerous in this event with a pair of runner-ups. Conners went 0-3 last year.

Lucas Herbert (+120) over Tony Finau

Can you remember the last time you saw Finau on a leaderboard?

Brian Harman (-115) over Webb Simpson

Last year, Harman came out of a group with Patrick Cantlay and pre-Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama. His consistency doesn't allow for the opponent to make a mistake - something Simpson has been prone to lately.

Jason Kokrak (+110) over Sergio Garcia

One of the great match players of our time, Sergio Garcia is getting credit for his resume in what should be a coin flip. Kokrak won't be scared.

Tom Hoge (-120) over Thomas Pieters

It's been a long time since Pieters' star turn in the 2016 Ryder Cup. Tom Hoge is striking the ball as well as anyone this year, as he's second in total strokes gained on approach shots.

Keith Mitchell (+150) over Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay has the reputation, but Mitchell's got five top-15s in 2022. Talent-wise, he's up to the challenge at a 3-2 price.

Richard Bland (+162) over Bryson DeChambeau

Let's test DeChambeau's patience coming off of his long layoff.

Taylor Gooch (-143) over Lee Westwood

Westwood isn't nearly in the same form as he was this time last year, while Gooch has stepped up his game in 2022.

Max Homa (-150) over Matthew Wolff

Of his five top-20s this season, Homa's most recent - at The Players - was the most impressive, battling the conditions on the wrong side of the draw. Though capable of brilliance, Wolff's misses are far more frequent than his hits this season.

Sebastian Munoz (+220) over Jon Rahm

It's never comfortable fading the world's No. 1, but in a one-round situation, anybody in the field is capable of a win. Munoz is playing well enough to give Rahm a scare, and at better than +200, he's worth a look.

Cameron Young (+120) over Patrick Reed

Young refuses to take a week off, and amazingly it hasn't hurt his results. If you take away the fame of the name, this should be priced much close to PK.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.