The Masters betting: The derivative markets

It wouldn't be a major without having action in all corners of every golf market. While we've already laid out who to back and fade on the oddsboard and who we're slicing off our betting card, let's look at the specific markets for the Masters.

Head-to-head matchups

Cameron Smith (+135) vs. Justin Thomas

Thomas admitted this week that his majors record leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, Smith doesn't deal with the same baggage that even the world's best are prone to shouldering at Augusta. He's a good bet to shoot in the 60s, while Thomas isn't right now, so getting a plus price on Smith is worth a bet.

Dustin Johnson (+100) vs. Rory McIlroy

This is one of the ways we'll back Johnson this week. McIlroy's Augusta demons can be held at bay for a round or two, but over the course of four days, DJ will prove the better bet.

Brooks Koepka (+135) vs. Rory McIlroy

The same goes for Koepka - we'll deploy a double-fade of McIlroy, as he puts too much pressure on himself to complete the career Grand Slam.

Jordan Spieth (+105) vs. Xander Schauffele

We'll know early on if Spieth has it after he gained better than seven strokes on tee to green in the final round of the Texas Open. His putter let him down, but we know what he can do on the lightning-fast greens of ANGC.

Will Zalatoris (-115) vs. Louis Oosthuizen

Zalatoris can win the tournament, while Oosthuizen has shown that he can't.

Corey Conners (+110) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick

Conners' game is a good fit for the course, while Fitzpatrick doesn't have the length to scare over four rounds.

Adam Scott (+100) vs. Tony Finau

Finau is our target in the first of another double-fade. Scott, the 2013 champion, is playing well this season and has a better chance of contending.

Russell Henley (-110) vs. Tony Finau

Henley is going to be a trendy pick at long odds, but he's a stronger bet to be better than average. It's been a while since Finau played above par by shooting under par.

Gary Woodland (-110) vs. Billy Horschel

Horschel produced his usual positive results in the Florida Swing and WGC-Match Play, but he's never had much success at Augusta. Woodland's track record is only OK, but he's playing well, and his length suits the course.

Bernhard Langer (+145) vs. Padraig Harrington

Langer's consistency on the Champions Tour and track record at Augusta give him the edge over Harrington, who made his name by winning other majors.

Make/miss the cut

Tiger Woods: Makes the cut (-120 or better)

From a numbers perspective, with roughly 60 out of 90 players in the field surviving the cut annually, it's almost hard to miss out at the Masters.

Woods doesn't do anything ceremonially and says he expects to win. That's a lofty goal, so we'll shoot for something more modest: playing the weekend. An early/late tee-time schedule gives Woods every opportunity to put two decent rounds together on guile, astute shotmaking, and his short game.

First-round leader

Jordan Spieth (+2800)

Spieth led the Masters on Thursday night in 2015, 2016, and 2018. The players know which pin placements to expect each day, and Spieth clearly likes the targets in the first round. Maybe he can translate Sunday in San Antonio into Thursday at Augusta.

Long-shot portfolio

For bets on a small sample size, we want to look for players who can go low in just 18 holes but might not be sustainable over a full tournament. Take another unit and spread it around on a handful of players at longer odds.

This is a mix of guys who either have a strong track record at the Masters but won't sustain for four rounds or, in the case of Conners and Henley, are beloved in course-fit metrics. Matthew Wolff's ability to throw down an eight-birdie round means he's worth a flyer in the hope he doesn't also have multiple double-bogeys.

Live-betting

We discussed yesterday why Jon Rahm might be a better bet midway through the tournament, but when it comes to live-betting the Masters, knowing when to bet is just as important as who you're betting on.

Since three of the course's four hardest holes come in the first seven at Augusta National, it's likely worth waiting to see if your live-betting target can play those in even par if you're looking to bet on someone overnight. It may seem like they aren't gaining ground on the field according to the odds, but they actually are.

Big swings start on the par-5 eighth. Pars at Amen Corner (holes 10-12) are a net gain. Betting on a player who's just passed through that part of the property - before his competitors do - could gain your golfer valuable strokes.

Making a bet on a contender before he's played the 13th hole is a good idea if the leader already has. A birdie run might be coming from 13-16 and can eliminate a 3-shot deficit quickly, leaving you with a valuable bet the rest of the way.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.