U.S. Open betting: The Country Club crowd

The best golfers in the world swing into the Boston area for the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, this week. As an exercise in handicapping, we won't back anyone who grabbed the LIV Golf money bag.

Moving toward exhibition games and away from competitive golf is a negative signal. Golf requires intense focus and constant work. Players are at their best when they're mentally comfortable and prepared to handle pressure. As PGA TOUR defectors return to face their former friends and fans, are you willing to back any of them to have the week of their professional lives?

Instead, we'll focus on a pair of factors: player form and course fit. For the former, we'll trust those who've been playing well coming into Brookline.

Course fit, however, is more complicated. Using datagolf.com's course fit tool, we know that certain courses ask similar questions of golfers during a tournament, whether it's accuracy off the tee or a classy short game. Recent U.S. Open hosts like Winged Foot (2020) and Pebble Beach (2019) were close matches, as were PGA National (host of the Honda Classic) and TPC Boston (host of the 2020 Northern Trust).

Head-to-head matchups

Justin Thomas (+105) over Rory McIlroy

After starting the final round of the Canadian Open two strokes behind, Thomas drew even with McIlroy with two holes to play last Sunday in Toronto. Had he edged McIlroy, he'd likely be the favorite in not just this matchup, but the tournament as a whole, so we'll take the plus-money on one of golf's great shotmakers.

Shane Lowry (-115) over Collin Morikawa

Lowry is ninth on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: approach, so even though he can handle missing greens, he often won't. His best result this season was a second-place finish at PGA National, which has a 91.3% match in course similarity scores.

Sam Burns (-130) over Viktor Hovland

A form mismatch, Hovland hasn't contended since early March, while Burns is a regular on the first page of tournament leaderboards. Burns has two wins since Hovland was last in contention late.

Daniel Berger (-115) over Cameron Young

Berger found something at the Memorial Tournament, and while Muirfield Village isn't a close comparison to The Country Club, he dominated the Honda Classic through three rounds this year. Although he fell apart Sunday, this course should fit his game, which places him 14th in strokes gained: approach this season.

Davis Riley (+100) over Talor Gooch

Riley has six straight top-20s, including one at the last major played, indicating he'll be ready to compete this week. Gooch now has more money than he could've ever dreamed of, but while that's great for him, we'll fade his readiness for a tough setup.

Webb Simpson (-120) over Patrick Reed

Reed wasn't playing particularly well before he grabbed the bag, while Simpson - a past U.S. Open champion - has a key advantage this week. With Brookline's blind approaches and distance control requirements - as well as players' lack of familiarity with the course - having a good caddie will help save strokes. Simpson's caddie, Paul Tesori, is regarded as one of the best.

Ryan Fox (+100) over Sam Horsfield

Fox has racked up top-10s on the European Tour, with five in his last seven events. The last time he competed stateside, he shot three straight 70s at the PGA Championship before struggling in the final round. If he can make the cut this week, he cashes against Horsfield.

Adri Arnaus (-150) over Thorbjorn Olesen

Arnaus, ranked 53rd in the world, made the cut at the PGA Championship. Olesen hasn't played in the U.S. since 2019, and his European Tour results haven't been inspiring, aside from a random victory last month - his first top-10 all year.

Lucas Herbert (-120) over Beau Hossler

Herbert had a quiet T13 at the PGA Championship and made a pair of cuts since. His best major finish prior to that was a T31 at Winged Foot. The Australian is 16th in strokes gained: around the green.

Top 20

If Fitzpatrick makes the cut, it's a top-20 - going nine-for-nine when playing the weekend this year. Zalatoris has a timeshare on the first page of major leaderboards. Finau, Niemann, and Homa are primed for a run at their first major title.

Miss the cut

Collin Morikawa (+200)

Morikawa missed the cut at comparable courses - TPC Boston and Winged Foot in 2020. But more immediately, he was painfully honest in his media conference this week about a two-way miss he's suffering from. He's not in peak form and is worth a bet to miss the cut.

Brooks Koepka (+150)

Koepka's results at the U.S. Open are incredible. However, there's only so much leeway we can give him considering his mediocre-to-bad stats this season. Whether it's his knee, his wedding, or some other reason, he'll need more than bravado to contend this week.

Dustin Johnson (+140)

Johnson played three times since the Masters. Here are his results: cut, T59, cut. He also signed a nine-figure guaranteed contract to lose to Charl Schwartzel and a handful of other mediocre pros, so it's not all bad for him.

First-round leader

It was a tough scene on the 72nd hole at Southern Hills, but if you were expecting Pereira to crumble, he hasn't, finishing T7 and T13 since one bad swing cost him a major. He's seventh out of the rough and 10th in strokes gained: approach. Look for him to be in the mix, maybe as early as Round 1.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.