The Open betting: Minding history at St. Andrews

The Open Championship returns to the home of golf at St. Andrews for its 150th playing this week. The historic course provides a unique challenge to players and bettors alike.

St. Andrews doesn't resemble the pure brute test that some other courses on The Open rota do. It's more of a strategic challenge that forces golfers to avoid the 112 bunkers while dealing with hardened, fast conditions and bumps in the well-worn terrain.

As for handicapping tools, we'll trade the stats and metrics built on the target golf played in North America for experience on links courses and strategic guile. To complicate matters, last year's Open Championship lacked the prime defense of wind, the tournament wasn't held in 2020, and weather dominated 2019's event at Royal Portrush; this week's forecast is benign, with temperatures flatlined in the low 60s.

Head-to-head matchups

Xander Schauffele (+110) over Rory McIlroy

Oddsmakers might consider McIlroy the best player in the world, but Schauffele is the one winning everything lately. We caught his wave at the Scottish Open last week, so why not take the plus-money over four rounds against McIlroy, who missed the 2015 Open at St. Andrews?

Matthew Fitzpatrick (-105) over Scottie Scheffler

Fitzpatrick followed his U.S. Open victory with a T6 at The Renaissance Club on Sunday. While his British Open career results have disappointed, he's revamped his game, finding the extra length that helped him win at The Country Club.

Tyrell Hatton (-105) over Dustin Johnson

This is a straight fade of Johnson, in line with how we've treated any of those who've opted to play unserious golf for guaranteed money. DJ had the 36-hole lead in 2015, but he was hungrier then. I'd prefer anyone in Johnson's world-ranking range in a head-to-head matchup, but being ranked third on TOUR in three-putt avoidance should help Hatton.

Sam Burns (-125) over Viktor Hovland

Another primary fade since Hovland's results continue to slip. Burns struggled the last few weeks, which is why we might see these two together in what I think is a mismatch.

Max Homa (+100) over Tony Finau

Hopefully, Homa doesn't get distracted by playing with his hero, Tiger Woods, and instead follows the GOAT's strategic lead around the course. Homa's in better form than Finau, whose length might generate more questions than answers.

Tiger Woods (+110) over Bryson DeChambeau

Speaking of Tiger, the 46-year-old certainly could win, and based on his vigorous prep, he thinks he can. Instead, we'll just ask him to play all four rounds. If he does, he'll beat DeChambeau, who's more likely to be flustered by St. Andrews' intricacies than he is to overpower the Old Course.

Billy Horschel (+105) over Patrick Reed

Horschel has been in Europe longer than maybe any of his PGA TOUR brethren, readying for a major on the links. Reed was last seen playing Pumpkin Ridge, so I'll fade his preparation for what can be a frustrating course for the unprepared.

Webb Simpson (-135) over Brian Harman

Simpson and his caddie, Paul Tesori, will know the optimum routes to get from tee to green, and the now-healthy veteran's lack of length won't hurt him like it does on the big major tournament courses stateside.

Harris English (+105) over Sebastian Munoz

English returned from injury in time for the U.S. Open. Since struggling at the event, he's made three cuts, including the Scottish Open. Munoz missed the cut last week, as he did in 2021, and has limited links golf experience.

Jamie Donaldson (+115) over Richard Bland

Donaldson has all the links golf experience needed and played his way into the tournament thanks to a big week at The Renaissance. The former Ryder Cupper has more pedigree than Bland, who's cashed in late in his career. Look for Donaldson to make the cut as part of his recent grind.

Top 20

Even at his shakiest, Rahm manages to float up leaderboards by Sunday afternoons, so we'll trust him - along with regular 2022 contenders Schauffele and Fitzpatrick - to finish in the top 20. As for those priced at plus-money, Fleetwood and Rose are capable of making a run on the Old Course, while the 20-year-old Kim, who finished third last week after almost getting in the top 20 at Brookline, could make a name for himself this week.

Miss the cut

J.T. Poston (+110)

Poston lit up a near opposite course at the John Deere Classic, which is always a good reason to fade someone coming over for the trials of links golf.

Viktor Hovland (+175)

We faded Hovland at the Scottish Open, and he missed the cut. He's always had questionable decision-making, so with the number of bunkers in play, a big number could loom.

Will Zalatoris (+175)

Sure, basically all Zalatoris does in majors is contend, so it'd seem like a bad idea to fade him. However, like his missed cut last week, he might end up chalking this up to a learning experience, since figuring out where pins are and where the ball needs to land is a drastically different exercise in Scotland.

Scottie Scheffler (+335)

Scheffler had his big run at the start of the season, but his form has waned just enough to make the prospect of fading him not completely terrifying. At longer than +300, Scheffler suffering the same fate he did at the Scottish Open and the PGA Championship is worth a shot.

First-round leader

One good round is all we need from a group of players who, outside of McIlroy, are unlikely to sustain dominance for four rounds. Even the Northern Irishman hasn't put all four rounds together in a while, so maybe his big round comes early at the home of golf.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.