Wells Fargo betting preview: Looking for sleepers at Quail Hollow
After a couple of weeks with PGA tournaments that were less serious than the Roy siblings, we get back to big business with the Wells Fargo Championship - but without two players that you've been able to take to the bank this year.
Speaking of must-watch trios, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are using their one get-out-of-play-free card, leaving the third of the weekly candidates for championship succession - Rory McIlroy - alone atop the board. McIlroy's had some time off to mourn Masters disappointment after buying his way out of the RBC Heritage, and he's never done worse than T16 at Quail Hollow, so he's the rightful top choice this week.
Three draws (odds to win/top 20)
Golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week
Cameron Young (+1800 / +137)
The Wells Fargo gets elevated to a big purse event and returns to Quail Hollow after a one-year move to TPC Potomac, so the field is better than in years past, and last year's Wells Fargo metrics get thrown out. Neither is ideal for handicapping. So we'll play on three golfers that are capable of big things on a weekly basis, even if the first hasn't actually won an event.
It's coming eventually and probably pretty soon for Young - a regular in this space. We've discussed at length the addition of Paul Tesori to his team, and Young had great weekends at WGC-Match Play and the Masters before a disappointing week in Hilton Head. He's had a few weeks off, presumably able to do some work with caddie/coach Tesori with an eye on getting him his first PGA TOUR win this spring or summer.
Jason Day (+2800 / +145)
At the Masters, Day was headed for his 13th top-21 finish this year before ejecting out with a final round 80. He hasn't played since and should be well-rested - which matters for someone who's been plagued by injury in his career.
On the course, Day is 11th on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season, and Data Golf has him sixth in total strokes gained at Quail Hollow in its Course History Tool. That's particularly important, as a player's history at this course highly correlates to future success relative to other PGA stops, according to Data Golf.
Rickie Fowler (+3500 / +180)
While some big names are trying to build back up to peak at the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks, Fowler is still trying to maintain his return to good form. Now he can take another step forward at a place where he won his first tournament in 2012. He also has four other top-10s at Quail Hollow, including the last time it hosted a "best of the best" event - the 2017 PGA Championship - where he finished fifth. He's cashed top-20 tickets for bettors in six of his last seven tournaments.
The scary fade
A golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price
Corey Conners (+160 to miss cut)
Maybe it's not all that scary, but it's hard to find value with some of the stars enrolled in this event, so we'll fade Conners at a place where he hasn't had much success. He missed the cut in 2015 and has been back for this event just twice since, with mid-40s finishes against mediocre fields. Plus, there are some lingering bad vibes from the President's Cup last year, where Conners struggled to contribute anything to the International Team.
The favorite club in the bag
We've picked two golfers to bet to win each week: Max Homa and Tom Kim. Assuming they play 20-to-25 events, we're expecting our second-tier oddsboard duo will win more than once and be profitable. It took one week for that approach to pay dividends: Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1 and almost added a second win at Riviera.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
Homa is the defending champion - and dominated the 2022 President's Cup at Quail Hollow - but he's looking to regain form after recent struggles. Somehow, he and Collin Morikawa didn't make the cut in the recent two-man event in New Orleans, but 25-1 is the type of price that we've always looked for with Homa.
They're not quite Tom Wambsgans and Greg Hirsch, but non-blood brothers Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim regained some juice from their must-watch partnership for the Internationals last year at the Zurich Classic with a T7. Maybe it indicates better form than we had seen previously for our favorite Tom, who's 50-1.
Matt Russell is the Lead Betting Analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.