PGA TOUR betting: Backing a pair of Canadians at the Sony Open

It was a solid week in Maui, as we hit Sahith Theegala to finish top 10 at +500 and J.T. Poston to finish in the top 20 at +175. Xander Schauffele, our lone outright selection at +1600, was in the final group and gave us a shot at a massive win - but Chris Kirk played too well to track down.

The PGA TOUR jumps to the island of Oahu this week for the Sony Open in Honolulu. The full 144-man field is headlined by European Ryder Cup teammates Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tyrrell Hatton. Theegala, Will Zalatoris, Brian Harman, and Hideki Matsuyama elevate the field strength even further.

The course

• Waialae Country Club
• Seth Raynor design
• 7,044 yards, par 70
• Bermuda-grass greens
• Emphasizes accuracy off the tee
• Wind acts as the primary defense
• Seven par 4s under 450 yards
• Correlated venues: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Sedgefield (Wyndham Championship), Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge)

Previous winners

2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
2021: Kevin Na (-21)
2020: Cameron Smith (-11, playoff)
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
2018: Patton Kizzire (-17, playoff)
2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
2016: Fabian Gomez (-20, playoff)
2015: Jimmy Walker (-23)
2014: Jimmy Walker (-17)

The favorites

Odds via theScore Bet

Aberg enters as the favorite at +1400 but, with Hatton and Fitzpatrick right behind him at +1600, the betting market clearly isn't anointing anyone as the frontrunner.

There's a chance we look back at these odds at the end of the season - after Aberg's solidified himself as a top-10 player in the world - and laugh. However, it's best to take a wait-and-see approach on Aberg at these prices since the playing field this week feels very level.

We're bypassing everyone priced below +3000 but it's worth mentioning Corey Conners' success as Waialae. He's played the event five times in his career, made the cut on every occasion, and finished inside the top 12 in his last four appearances. Conners gained 6.7 strokes tee-to-green at The Sentry but gave them all back with his putter.

The next tier

Bettable options begin to pop up in this area, starting with Poston. Waialae is the perfect course for him: He relies on accuracy off the tee, can hit approaches close, and is one of the best putters on TOUR. In his last 10 starts, Poston's finished inside the top 10 six times and made every cut.

Theegala is priced at +3000 following last week's runner-up placement. However, this course is far less forgiving off the tee, which doesn't bode well for Theegala's erratic style of play.

A case can be made for several players in this tier, including Eric Cole, Adam Svensson, Denny McCarthy, and Harris English. But Waialae lends itself to so many golfers that it's easy to find similar caliber players at double or even triple the odds.

Picks

J.T. Poston: To Win (+3300)

Poston's been playing too well for an extended period to be ignored at this price. And the course perfectly suits his game. This week, he's arguably a better play than Russell Henley, who's priced at +2000.

Keegan Bradley: To Win (+5000)

The price on Keegan Bradley doesn't add up. Bradley, by this field's standards, is a prolific winner with two victories in the past two years and six in his career. But he's priced alongside Stephan Jaeger and Andrew Putnam, and longer than players such as Byeong Hun An (+3000) and Cole (+3000).

It's a positive that Bradley played last week in Maui, where he gained 5.3 strokes tee-to-green but lost eight with the putter. With the rust knocked off, Bradley heads to a course he's seen 11 times while gaining over 4.5 strokes tee-to-green in six of those appearances. It's a big ask for his putter to show up, but if it does - and it's even slightly better than the field average -Bradley will contend on Sunday.

Emiliano Grillo: To Win (+9000)

Emiliano Grillo, another ball-striker who struggles with the flatstick, should also be targeted at Waialae. He played at The Sentry last week as well and, while he failed to do anything spectacular, he did gain 1.1 strokes tee-to-green on the field in the final round to build momentum for the Sony Open.

Grillo won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2023, which was held at the correlated Colonial Country Club course. He's known for his plodding style of play with high finishes at the RBC Heritage - another tournament that demands accuracy.

Corey Conners: Top 20 (+160)

Getting Conners at plus money to finish inside the top 20 this week has tremendous value. He's as steady as they come from a ball-striking perspective and two of the three best-putting performances of his career have come at Waialae.

Nick Taylor: Top 20 (+400)

We'll target another Canadian, Nick Taylor, in the top-20 market at +400. Taylor is a far better player than this price indicates, which is clear when looking at other players in his price range. No offense to Doug Ghim, Ryo Hisatsune, or Vincent Whaley - all players +400 to finish in the top 20 - but Taylor's resume laps each of theirs.

Most of Taylor's best finishes have come at courses that require accuracy over distance. Taylor claimed titles at Oakdale - where he won the Canadian Open - and Pebble Beach, both of which are two short courses. We're not asking for a win, but rather for him to continue his consistent play with a respectable top-20 finish.

Tom Hoge: Top 20 (+400)

A lot of what applies to Taylor also applies to Tom Hoge.

Hoge thrives at shorter courses, as evidenced by his win at Pebble Beach and top-tier finishes at The American Express, Players Championship, and RSM Classic, plus his top-three showing at the 2018 Sony Open. The fact that he played last week in Maui only strengthens the fact he'll be ready for the season's second event.