Expect PGA TOUR's long-shot run to end at Farmers Insurance Open

The first three winners on the PGA TOUR in 2024 were massive long shots. Chris Kirk (+20000) at The Sentry, Grayson Murray (+40000) at the Sony Open, and amateur Nick Dunlap (+30000) at The American Express formed a sensational run of long-shot winners.

Let this streak act as a reminder of how unpredictable wagering on the outright market in golf can be.

But this trend should come to an end as the TOUR heads to Torrey Pines - the toughest test on the calendar so far - for the Farmers Insurance Open, which starts Wednesday and ends Saturday to avoid competing with the NFL's conference championship games.

Torrey Pines, which hosted the 2021 U.S. Open, is a fantastic test of the modern PGA TOUR pro. There's no faking it around either the North or South Course at Torrey; it tests every aspect of a golfer's game, giving the elite players a chance to separate themselves from the pack.

The courses

South Course

• 7,765 yards, par 72
• Played three of four rounds
• Poa annua grass greens
• Tougher of two courses
• All par 5s over 560 yards
• Six par 4s over 450 yards

North Course

• 7,258 yards, par 72
• Played once in first two rounds
• Bentgrass greens
• Three par 4s over 450 yards
• Larger greens compared to South Course
• Shorter par 5s make scoring much lower than the South Course

Past Winners

2023: Max Homa (-13)
2022: Luke List (-15)
2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
2019: Justin Rose (-21)
2018: Jason Day (-10)
2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6)
2015: Jason Day (-9)

The favorites

Odds via theScore Bet

Xander Schauffele barely claims the favorite spot over Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, and defending champion Max Homa. It's splitting hairs with these four - you could interchange their odds without any shift in their value. That makes all four a pass in the outright market.

But we won't leave the favorites section without raving about Ludvig Aberg. The young Swede is already one of the world's best at driving the ball, a skill that's often required to win at Torrey Pines. He's never played the event before, but Jon Rahm hadn't either when he won in 2017.

Since Aberg joined the TOUR in the middle of last year - due to the way the schedule is set - he's barely played tournaments at courses that emphasize his strength. A lot of his top results came at venues that didn't demand elite driving. Torrey Pines' long, narrow fairways should be the perfect fit for Aberg.

The next tier

This tier houses a handful of names to consider in either the outright or top-finishes markets.

Keegan Bradley and Sahith Theegala each have a runner-up finish this season and have played well at Torrey Pines in the past. Bradley has a ton of history at this event, having played it 12 times with three top-fives and only two missed cuts.

Theegala's played Torrey twice with a fourth-place showing last year and a T25 in 2022.

If Will Zalatoris had played three or four more times since returning from injury and perhaps recorded a couple of top 20s, he'd no doubt be among the favorites. But that's not the case, and that's why he's +5000 despite finishing as a runner-up to Luke List in 2022. He played solidly last week at The American Express and being early may pay off handsomely.

Picks

Last week, we hit Sam Burns for a top 10 at +375 and were extremely close to a profitable week before Si Woo Kim finished his final round by going bogey-quadruple bogey-bogey to fall outside of the top 20.

We're still up 37% on the year, so let's keep it rolling into what should be a great week in San Diego.

Ludvig Aberg: To Win (+1900)

We opened by discussing how unpredictable golf's outright market is, only to lead off our picks section with Aberg to win at +1900.

But we're betting on something very predictable: Aberg's world-class driving ability, which should give him a huge leg up on the rest of the field.

Aberg ranks among the top five names in this field in strokes gained: off the tee regardless of how many rounds of data you want to look at. A win at Torrey would continue his ascension into the top echelon of the sport.

Sahith Theegala: Top 10 (+375)

Theegala came through for us with a top-10 result at The Sentry, so we'll go back to the well at a course where he's shown promise at in the past.

Although he's sporadic off the tee, that style of play can still get the job done at Torrey Pines. Marc Leishman, Patrick Reed, and Jason Day have all won here, and they're not known for their accuracy off the tee.

Theegala is plenty long enough to contend at Torrey, and he can putt and chip better than most to get himself out of tricky spots. He's a California native and should feel right at home on the West Coast in the same state where he notched his lone PGA TOUR victory.

Will Zalatoris: Top 20 (+200)

We're not going to chase the Zalatoris comeback in the outright market, and he's a tad short in the top-10 market at +400. Instead, we'll bank on him continuing to find his form at a course where he's done well in his short career.

He's played this event four times, missing the cut in his first start and last year while he was battling a lingering back issue. In his two other appearances, Zalatoris placed T7 and second.

Last week, Zalatoris shot four rounds in the 60s (yes, the courses were easy), creating confidence that he's trending toward returning to the major-contending player we grew to enjoy before his injury.

Kevin Yu: Top 20 (+400)

Kevin Yu is one of the best drivers of the ball in this field despite being relatively unheard of among the majority of golf fans. Over his past 50 rounds, he ranks third in the field in strokes gained: off the tee behind only Cantlay and Aberg.

Yu placed third last week in Palm Springs, his best result on the PGA TOUR. If he maintains that form, he should improve upon his T44 at the Farmers Insurance Open from last year, especially since this week's field is far weaker than the one that competed in 2023.