WM Phoenix Open betting: Who will thrive during golf's biggest party?

Heavy rain and wind canceled the final round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, handing Wyndham Clark the 54-hole victory and washing away our chances at cashing a Justin Thomas outright ticket.

Thankfully, the PGA TOUR continues to chug along as it heads to the desert for the WM Phoenix Open. A field of 132 golfers will take on TPC Scottsdale for an event that's become one of the TOUR's prized possessions. Hopefully, drier conditions will give us a chance to cash a few bets.

The Phoenix Open is a four-day party with a side of PGA TOUR golf. The iconic stadium scene on the 16th hole is always must-see TV - especially when a hole-in-one is made - and the final round acts as the perfect appetizer for the Super Bowl.

The course

• TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona
• 7,261 yards, par 71
• Poa overseed
• All three par 5s are between 550-560 yards
• Driveable par-4 17th

Past winners

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) over Nick Taylor
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) over two players
2020: Webb Simpson (-17) in a playoff over Tony Finau
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17) over Branden Grace
2018: Gary Woodland (-18) in a playoff over Chez Reavie
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) in a playoff over Simpson
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14) in a playoff over Fowler
2015: Brooks Koepka (-15) over three players

The favorites

Odds via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite with an implied win probability of 18.2%. This price is simply too short despite there being a really good chance he'll walk away with the three-peat.

Thomas is playing exceptionally well right now as he finished T6 last week in the rain-shortened tournament. He gained 5.8 strokes tee to green in three rounds en route to his fifth consecutive finish of T6 or better. However, at +900, his odds aren't enticing enough to back. He opened the week at +1400 before Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele withdrew.

The next tier

It's difficult to make a case for any of the other favorites, so we'll jump down to a tier littered with viable options from an outright perspective.

Clark opened in the +4000 range but quickly got bet down to +2800, a far more respectable number for someone with a solid course history at TPC Scottsdale who's coming off of another marquee win. Considering he didn't have to play through the stress of a final round with the lead, he should be energized to contend again even though he's going for back-to-back victories.

Sahith Theegala opened the year with a runner-up result at The Sentry before a couple of off events. He came T20 last week and now returns to Scottsdale where he had his first breakthrough on the PGA TOUR. In 2022, Theegala held a share of the lead on the 71st hole before a costly bogey knocked him out of a playoff.

J.T. Poston, Matt Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee, and Hideki Matsuyama are all decent options in this range. Poston continues to rack up high-end finishes; Fitzpatrick has played well in Phoenix in his two starts and is arguably a better player than everyone in this range; Lee has the skill set to go low at TPC Scottsdale; and Matsuyama is a two-time winner of this event.

Picks

Hideki Matsuyama: To win (+4000), Top 20 (+190)

TPC Scottsdale is Matsuyama's happy place. He has five top-20 finishes in addition to his two victories in nine appearances at the event with no missed cuts.

Matsuyama finished T13 at Torrey Pines two weeks ago before struggling at Pebble last week in his first start at the tournament. Expect Matsuyama to rebound in a big way while in solid form at a course he's dominated throughout his career.

Shane Lowry: To win (+8000), Top 20 (+250)

We'll take one more swing in the outright market with Shane Lowry at +8000 and add him for a top-20 finish at +250 to our card.

Similar to Clark from last week, Lowry is being undervalued in the betting market and priced alongside Emiliano Grillo, Thomas Detry, and Akshay Bhatia. Not taking anything away from those three, but Lowry is a far superior player with a resume that speaks for itself.

The Irishman finished T25 two weeks ago at Torrey Pines and had last week off to prep for Phoenix. Dating back to last year's PGA Championship, Lowry has eight top-20 results - many coming in majors or elevated events - in his last 14 events. He's appeared four times at the Phoenix Open, with three made cuts, a T6 in 2016, and a T16 in 2017.

Justin Thomas: Top 10 (+130)

If you missed out on the +1400 or +1200 on Thomas that was available before some marquee names pulled out and can't stomach betting him at +900, backing Thomas in the top-10 market is another route to take.

He has five straight top-10 finishes and seems to perform well in the party atmosphere in the desert. In Thomas' last five starts at this event, he's placed inside the top five four times and was T13 in 2021.

J.T. Poston: Top 20 (+140)

Until Poston falls out of form, backing him to finish inside the top 20 is always an option.

He finished T20 last week at Pebble, so due to dead-heat rules, the payout was reduced. Still, that finish marked his ninth top-20 result in his past 13 tournaments played. Poston's competed at TPC Scottsdale five times in his career with four made cuts and a T11 as his best result.

Kevin Yu: Top 20 (+330)

Kevin Yu is off to a strong start in 2024 with two top-10 placings already under his belt. He gained 3.8 strokes tee to green last week - 4.9 of those coming with his approach shots - but gave a ton back on the green to finish T58.

But it's somewhat of a homecoming for the 25-year-old Taiwanese pro, who attended Arizona State. Yu should feel comfortable playing in the desert while in the best form of his career. Another top-20 finish is far more likely than his +330 odds would indicate.