Arnold Palmer Invitational betting: Scheffler looks for 3rd title at Bay Hill

The PGA TOUR's Florida swing continues this week with a trip to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the season's fourth signature event.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler headlines the 72-man field. Xander Schauffele will also make his first start since the season-opening Sentry after being sidelined with a rib injury, giving the stout field an additional boost.

The course

• 7,466 yards, par 72
• Bermuda-grass greens
• All four par 3s over 195 yards
• Five par 4s over 450 yards
• Water in play on nine holes

Previous winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
2016: Jason Day (-17)
2015: Matt Every (-19)
2014: Matt Every (-13)
2013: Tiger Woods (-13)

The favorites

Surprise, surprise: Scheffler is the heavy favorite at +330. The two-time champ at Bay Hill has yet to find the winner's circle this season, a scary proposition for the remainder of the field. However, he's only played three times this year after a hand injury held him out of January's events.

His +330 odds, with an implied probability of 23.3%, are deserved and fair. Scheffler likely does win once every four times at Bay Hill, which is tailor-made for his game. That said, backing a +330 favorite in a 72-man field is simply too short of a price and too much of a risk despite all the signs pointing toward Scheffler contending.

Aside from Rory McIlroy, the other options at the top aren't too enticing. Ludvig Aberg won the most recent signature event at Torrey Pines, but he doesn't have the greatest history at Bay Hill (T25 and T24). Schauffele could be rusty after his two-month layoff, and Collin Morikawa's also struggled at Bay Hill with back-to-back missed cuts.

McIlroy won the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational (before it was a signature event) and was a runner-up in 2023. He won two starts ago at Pebble Beach in a very similar field. There are worse bets to make at +800, and he should be able to give you a sweat come Sunday.

The next tier

Picks

Will Zalatoris without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy (+3300)

It's OK to admit when you're scared. And this week, both Scheffler and McIlroy are scary enough to avoid.

We'll take the shorter price on Will Zalatoris and go from +5500 in the outright market to +3300 in a similar market that removes the two biggest threats from the competition.

Zalatoris is trending toward the form he had during his breakout campaign in 2022, and whatever injury issues he was dealing with seem to be behind him. He's yet to record a top-10 finish this season but was T12 at the American Express and T24 in his last start at the Genesis Invitational. He's had two career top-10 showings at Bay Hill, including a T4 last season.

If Zalatoris continues to regain his form, Bay Hill is a perfect breakout spot. And this bet will still cash even if his best isn't good enough to beat Scheffler or McIlroy.

Rory McIlroy - Top 10 finish (-110)

McIlroy has played Bay Hill 10 times in his career and recorded six top-10 results. He's also finished T11 and T13, and a T27 in 2016 was his worst showing. To summarize, McIlroy loves Arnie's place.

It's hard to envision the leaderboard without McIlroy's name near the top at the end of the week. He's hitting the ball exceptionally well, having gained at least seven strokes tee-to-green in back-to-back starts.

Sepp Straka - Top 20 finish (+150)

Don't look at Sepp Straka's course history - it's not pretty. But Straka is playing some of the best golf of his career and already has a win under his belt this season.

He ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained: ball-striking (off the tee plus approach) over the past 24 rounds and has four top-15 finishes in his previous five starts. Given how well he's playing, Straka's more than capable of figuring out Bay Hill.