The Players betting preview: Can Schauffele end Scheffler's reign?

It's Players Championship week - the PGA TOUR's flagship event from the iconic TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

One of the strongest fields of the season will take on Pete Dye's masterpiece. The course is highlighted by the brilliant set of finishing holes, which includes the island green at No. 17.

Scottie Scheffler is looking to become the first player to win three straight Players Championships. He's also the deserved +460 betting favorite at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet, but a handful of other contenders are primed to dethrone Scheffler's reign at Sawgrass.

The course

• Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• 7,275 yards, par 72
• Designed by Pete Dye
• Water in play on 17 holes
• Poa Trivialis overseed greens
• Three of four par 5s are reachable in two by most
• Finishing holes Nos. 16, 17, and 18 are some of the most exciting in golf

Previous winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022: Cam Smith (-13)
2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
2020: Canceled
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
2017: Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016: Jason Day (-15)

The favorites

Scheffler has an implied win probability of 17.9%. There's a good chance he wins his third straight Players Championship as TPC Sawgrass appears to be the perfect layout for his game. He gained 17.2 and 15.9 strokes tee to green (two of his three career-best performances) en route to his two victories.

However, there's a red flag in Scheffler's performance at Bay Hill. He only gained 0.6 strokes through approach shots, the third-worst week with his irons since the start of 2024. We're nitpicking, obviously, but any sign that something may be slightly off is enough to avoid Scheffler at +460.

Collin Morikawa (+1600) and Justin Thomas (+2200) are solid options among the favorites as well. Morikawa nearly won last week, and Thomas is hitting his irons very well this season. Both players are perfectly set up for TPC Sawgrass.

The next tier

Picks

Xander Schauffele - To win (+2500)

We're bypassing five names to get to Xander Schauffele.

Usually, Xander is the second or third favorite behind Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but we're getting a discount on the two-time major winner because of his unideal start to the 2025 season. He has no top-25 finishes across two starts and missed nearly two months with a rib injury.

However, there are positives to take away from Schauffele's start at Bay Hill last week. He gained 2.4 strokes ball-striking (off the tee plus approach), roughly the same as Ludvig Aberg. Schauffele also gained strokes in all four stat categories in his final-round 69. Plus, he lost five strokes around the green for the tournament, a career-worst performance and a complete anomaly.

Schauffele also is a two-time runner-up at Sawgrass, which removes any course-fit concerns.

He showed no signs of a lingering injury last week, and his sluggish start can be chalked up to a bit of rust after a long layoff. This is the perfect opportunity for Schauffele to peak at a big-time event for a discounted price.

Sepp Straka - To win (+4500), Top-20 finish (+250)

Sepp Straka is playing exceptional golf, and +4500 is a great number for what he brings to the table.

The big Austrian is fresh off a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after battling back from an opening-round 77. The result marks his fifth top-15 finish in his last six starts, a stretch that includes a win at The American Express.

He's an accurate driver of the ball and is hitting his irons as well as anyone in the field. Straka has made three straight cuts at The Players, including a T6 in 2022 and a T16 last year.

Justin Thomas - Top-10 finish (+230)

Thomas is trending toward becoming a top-five player again. The former Players champion has three top-10 finishes in six starts this year, showing the elite iron play that helped lift him to No. 1 in the world in 2018.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Thomas hoist the golden trophy Sunday, but we'll take another option in the hopes he contends at +230.

Will Zalatoris - Top-20 finish (+275)

Will Zalatoris struck the ball beautifully last week at Bay Hill, where he was fifth in strokes gained: off the tee and sixth in strokes gained: approach. If he can make a few putts (always a question with Zalatoris) and continue to gain strokes tee to green, a top-20 finish shouldn't be an issue.

Doug Ghim - Top-20 finish (+330)

Doug Ghim finished T11 at the Cognizant Classic in his last start, gaining 10.8 strokes tee to green to rank second in the field. Ghim's a terrible putter, but he should be able to record his third top-20 showing in his fifth start if he can hit the ball as well as he has been since last year's Players Championship.

Nick Taylor - Top-20 finish (+450)

A +450 price on a top-20 finish is more evidence that Nick Taylor is perpetually underrated. He's played very well in 2025, winning the Sony Open and finishing T9 at the Genesis Invitational - a signature event with a stacked field.

Taylor's gained strokes through approach shots in every tournament this year, including 3.9 last week at Bay Hill. Backing him is more than worth the risk at these odds.