Scottish Open betting preview: Backing Euros in TOUR's trip overseas

The PGA TOUR heads across the pond this week for the Genesis Scottish Open, a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour.

This event serves as an ideal tune-up for next week's Open Championship and boasts the second-strongest field of the year based on the world ranking. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline the field, and the only notable absentees are Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, and Jordan Spieth among PGA TOUR players.

The course

• The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland
• 7,282 yards, par 70
• It's not a traditional links course because it was carved out of a forest, but it does feature deep pot bunkers and undulating fairways.
• Scottish wind can cause chaos.

Past winners

2024: Robert MacIntyre (-18) over Adam Scott
2023: Rory McIlroy (-15) over Robert MacIntyre
2022: Xander Schauffele (-7) over Kurt Kitayama
2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) over Thomas Detry, Matt Fitzpatrick
2020: Aaron Rai (-11) in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22) in a playoff over Benjamin Hebert

The favorites

⛳️ Odds available at ESPN BET and theScore Bet

Scheffler is the +375 favorite at ESPN BET and theScore Bet, a deserved spot on the oddsboard given his insane win rate over the past two seasons. He's played the Scottish Open twice, finishing T3 in 2023 and missing the cut in 2022. If you've been following along this year, you know backing Scheffler at +375 isn't the route we like to take.

McIlroy is also a pass at +750. He hasn't shown much since his Masters victory that warrants such a short price in a loaded field.

The next tier

⛳️ Odds available at ESPN BET and theScore Bet

There are plenty of viable options in this range, starting with Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. The Englishman is always an intriguing option at tournaments across the pond. He was a runner-up in 2020 and placed inside the top 10 in two of his past three Scottish Open appearances. Fleetwood is coming off a crushing loss at the Travelers Championship, but is playing well and should be in the mix this week at a course he likes.

Defending champion Robert MacIntyre is also a consideration. He finished second at the U.S. Open two starts ago and loves the Renaissance Club. His price in the outright market is a tad short at +2500, but there could be an opportunity to back him with a top-10 or top-20 wager.

Picks

To win outright: Viktor Hovland (+3000)

Rather than trying to figure out why Viktor Hovland is priced above Ludvig Aberg, take the value and run.

Hovland had a legitimate chance at winning the U.S. Open, the most demanding course pros will face this year. He gained 8.3 strokes on approach and is far more confident in his swing than he was when he won the Valspar Championship in March. Hovland lacks a high finish at the Scottish Open, but there's no reason why he can't excel at the links layout.

To win outright: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500)

Something in Matt Fitzpatrick's game has clicked in recent tournaments, and it's time to strike while the iron is hot.

It helps that Fitzpatrick has an impressive history at the Renaissance Club (T2 in 2021, T6 in 2022), but we're on him because he's gained five or more strokes tee to green in three of his last five starts, including his 11.9 shots gained: tee to green at the Rocket Classic. He's making a tremendous push to force his way onto the European Ryder Cup team, and a victory in Scotland would lock up a spot.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-120) over Corey Conners

We like Fitzpatrick, so we'll take him head to head in a matchup against Corey Conners, who is making his first start since withdrawing from the U.S. Open with a wrist injury. There's a chance Conners isn't 100% healthy, and wrist injuries are not easy to come back from midseason.

Top-20 finish: Robert MacIntyre (+165)

MacIntyre has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five appearances at the Renaissance Club. That's an 80% hit rate while his odds imply a probability of only 37.7%. He's playing great golf and is a legit contender this week in Scotland and at next week's major championship.

Top-20 finish: Lee Hodges (+375)

Lee Hodges ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 24 rounds. No, he hasn't played in majors or elevated events, but he's still striking the ball beautifully ahead of his trip to Scotland. Hodges finished 12th at the 2023 Scottish Open and placed T46 last year. If he maintains his ball-striking overseas, a top-20 result is far more likely than the +375 odds imply.

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