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AL Rookie of the Year odds: Is Rays' Arozarena worth betting as favorite?

Ronald Martinez / Getty Images Sport / Getty

One of the most intriguing markets to bet ahead of each MLB season is the Rookie of the Year race, and this year is no different. Rays rookie Randy Arozarena enters the campaign as the clear American League favorite after a record-setting 2020 postseason, but Mariners top prospect Jarred Kelenic is hot on his heels. Is either worth betting at short odds?

Here are the odds to win AL Rookie of the Year, as well as what to know about the favorites and a few potential sleepers:

PLAYER ODDS
Randy Arozarena +350
Jarred Kelenic +600
Ryan Mountcastle +1000
Nate Pearson +1200
Wander Franco +1200
Alex Kirilloff +1500
Triston McKenzie +1500
Nick Madrigal +1800
Adley Rutschman +2000
Bobby Dalbec +2000
Casey Mize +2000
Andrew Vaughn +2500
Bobby Witt Jr. +2500
Dane Dunning +2500
Logan Gilbert +2500
Michael Kopech +2500
Alejandro Kirk +3000
Brendan McKay +3000
Deivi Garcia +3000
Garrett Crochet +3000
Leody Taveras +3000
Luis Patino +3000
Tarik Skubal +3000
Julio Rodriguez +3500
Matt Manning +3500
Bobby Bradley +4000
Forrest Whitley +4000
Jeter Downs +5000
Luis Garcia +5000
Nolan Jones +5000
Spencer Torkelson +5000
Taylor Trammell +5000
Vidal Brujan +5000

Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays (+350)

Every list of contenders for this award should start - and potentially end - with Arozarena, who lit up the American League during the 2020 regular season before going on a postseason tear unlike any in MLB history.

The Rays rookie set MLB playoff records for home runs (10), hits (29), and total bases (64) en route to the team's World Series appearance. It was a worthy encore to the .281/.382/.641 slash line he posted in 23 regular-season games after being called up in late August.

Here's the issue: This isn't the market to play it safe. Kyle Lewis came out of relative obscurity to win this award in 2020, and a few rookies will likely surprise this year, too. Arozarena should be the favorite, but it might not be worth laying such short odds.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners (+600)

When will we finally see Kelenic in the majors? That's the big question surrounding the star prospect, who's embroiled in a service-time controversy with the Mariners despite his excellent play at lower levels.

Kelenic impressed at the team's alternate site in 2020 and is hitting .333/.444/.800 in spring training, but a knee injury could further delay his much-anticipated debut. If Kelenic plays at least 130 games, he's an easy choice at these odds. The question is whether he'll hit that mark.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox (+2500)

The White Sox are loaded with young prospects who are eyeing hardware, but the best value in this market is Vaughn, who's expected to jump straight from Class A to the majors and open the season as Chicago's designated hitter.

That leap speaks to the organization's confidence in the former No. 3 pick after he had a 1.183 OPS in college and wowed coaches and teammates this spring. If he really is a mainstay in a lineup full of elite hitters, it'll do wonders for his box-score metrics and could help him cash at long odds.

Dane Dunning, SP, Rangers (+2500)

The centerpiece of the Lance Lynn trade this offseason, Dunning should have an opportunity to showcase his skills in the Rangers' rebuilding rotation - if the team lets him.

The former White Sox prospect has below-average velocity but offsets it with a nasty slider that produced a 43.5% whiff rate in 2020. He had at least seven strikeouts in three of his seven starts last year despite getting yanked before the sixth inning in two of those outings.

We could see more of the same this year, as Dunning is two years removed from Tommy John surgery and likely won't be leaned upon by a team with virtually no postseason aspirations. But if the innings are there, the production should follow, making him an intriguing long shot.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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