Serie A Matchday 28 betting preview: Roma roll at San Siro
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We raked in the profits this week as Serie A returned to the pitch, nailing a few dogs and draws at generous odds to make for a successful week.
With a whole new batch of matches to bet on this weekend, let's keep the good times going.
Genoa (+140) at Brescia (+175), Draw (+255)
In what might be one of the biggest under-the-radar matches of the weekend, 20th-place Brescia simply can't afford to lose to a Genoa side barely sitting above the bottom three on goal difference. Points are absolutely essential for both of these clubs at the Stadio Mario Rigamonti on Saturday.
Brescia should be playing with a bit of confidence after holding Fiorentina to a draw Monday and have one more day of rest than their opponents. They also have yet to lose against a bottom-six side at home. Genoa are in a bad way at the moment and have won just twice on the road this season. After a miserable 4-1 defeat to Parma on Tuesday, you get the sense they'd be content with a point here to kick-start their push to safety.
Pick: Draw (+255)
Torino (+190) at Cagliari (+145), Draw (+225)
Giovanni Simeone's 93rd-minute winner Tuesday provided Cagliari with their first victory since Dec. 2, ending a lengthy 12-match winless run in the league after beginning the season 8-4-1. That result will go a long way to securing their top-flight status, but this is still a club that struggles to find ways to win.
Torino returned to the win column as well Tuesday despite being thoroughly outplayed by Udinese. With a couple of matches under their belt since the restart, Torino should be a bit more lively in this one, as they look to make it 11 successive unbeaten trips to Cagliari. Considering the form of both sides, it's hard to envision either grabbing this match by the scruff and claiming a victory. Given their positioning in the table, a point will serve both of them well.
Pick: Draw (+225)
Roma (+165) at Milan (+155), Draw (+240)
If Roma are to have any hopes of finishing this season in the top four, this is a match they absolutely need. Based on his team selection against Sampdoria, Paulo Fonseca is well aware of that fact. The manager rested several key players - including Gianluca Mancini, Bryan Cristante, Cengiz Under, and Justin Kluivert - giving a few of them cameos off the bench to get their legs going but keeping them fresh for this trip to San Siro, where Roma have won three of their last four matches over Milan.
The Rossoneri impressed in their return to Serie A action, thrashing Lecce 4-1, but this is a significant step up in class for Stefano Pioli's men. Milan have won just four times this season during 13 home matches, with each of those victories coming by a single goal over relegation-threatened clubs in the bottom seven. They've lost both matches at San Siro against top-five clubs, and we can expect those struggles to continue here against a tough Roma side.
Pick: Roma (+165)
Bologna (+200) at Sampdoria (+135), Draw (+240)
Sampdoria are in a similar position as Genoa and are now feeling the pressure heading into the final stretch of matches. They will be desperate for three points here, but it won't come easy against a Bologna side that has played well away from home this season and comes into this fixture far more rested thanks to an extra two days off.
This isn't a match Sampdoria can afford to lose, so while I'd expect them to have a go at it, we will see some tired legs set in after a heartbreaking defeat to Roma on Thursday. A draw would provide Bologna with a precious point as they move closer to survival while offering Sampdoria a bit of breathing room between them and the bottom three.
Pick: Draw (+240)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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