Who's in, who's out? Champions League knockout stage takes shape

Only 27 matches remain in the league phase of the Champions League - and many knockout berths remain up for grabs. theScore takes stock as we approach the playoffs and round of 16.

What's at stake?

It's simple: The top eight seeds advance automatically to the round of 16, while the 16 teams that finish below them enter the playoff round. Clubs between 25th and 36th will be eliminated from Europe altogether and won't even get to play in the Europa League.

If two or more teams remain tied at the end of the eighth and final matchday, goal difference will break the deadlock. If the teams are tied on goal difference, UEFA will account for goals scored, then away goals scored, then wins, and, if necessary, away wins.

Seeding is important as the higher you finish, the less likely you are to face a high performer in the knockout round. For example, the top two won't play against each other until the final, as they'll be on opposite sides of the bracket. The same idea goes for the teams that make the playoffs. Clubs ranked ninth to 16th will earn seeds and host the second leg of their two-legged tie. The higher seeds will be drawn against teams ranked 17th to 24th.

The playoffs will begin Feb. 11 and end the following week on Feb. 19. The draw for the round of 16 takes place Feb. 21, with play beginning March 4.

Who's in?

Liverpool and Barcelona each secured direct passage to the round of 16 following their wins Tuesday.

Liverpool beat 10-man Lille to maintain a perfect 7-0-0 record but haven't quite locked down the No. 1 spot. A loss to PSV Eindhoven on the final day and a win for Barcelona against Atalanta would allow the Blaugrana to leapfrog the Reds into first place.

Barcelona are in an envious position after Tuesday's 5-4 comeback win over Benfica. Hansi Flick's men overcame a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Portuguese in one of the most entertaining matches of the league phase. Raphinha's 96th-minute winner survived a late VAR review to clinch the victory.

Only six teams can catch Barcelona, meaning they'll finish no lower than eighth.

Atletico Madrid may need a point from their final match against Red Bull Salzburg to confirm their place in the round of 16 despite coming back to beat Bayer Leverkusen with just 10 men. But Diego Simeone's side, which won 2-1 Tuesday, has a playoff spot in its possession just in case.

Atalanta's 5-0 clobbering of 32nd-placed Sturm Graz wasn't enough to guarantee them a place in the top eight. Like Atletico, they will, at worst, end up in the playoff round.

Arsenal, Inter, and Brest were all guaranteed a playoff berth without playing Tuesday. Aston Villa, Leverkusen, and Lille also secured entry despite losses to Monaco, Atletico, and Liverpool.

Who's out?

The three teams that have failed to earn a point are already eliminated.

RB Leipzig are the most surprising member of the trio. They had a brutal run of fixtures against some of the best teams in Europe, including Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Liverpool, and Inter.

Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys are also pointless thus far and on the way out. Bratislava have conceded a league-high 24 goals, while Young Boys have scored a paltry three goals in six matches.

Sturm Graz, Crvena Zvezda, and Bologna were also officially eliminated from playoff contention after Tuesday's matches.

Who's on the cusp?

There's a massive lineup at the gates.

The Analyst's Ali Tweedale ran 50,000 simulations in September to determine how many points a team would need to qualify. Tweedale found 16 points would likely guarantee progress to the round of 16, and nine or 10 points would be sufficient for a playoff spot.

That seems to be holding true, as teams with just three points are still alive.

Villa, Leverkusen, and Lille must all win next week to give themselves a chance of finishing in the top eight. Brest could also launch themselves into the top eight with a victory over 28th-placed Shakhtar Donetsk.

Bayern Munich and AC Milan could break the 16-point threshold with wins in their final two matches. Milan, who've won four straight in the Champions League after losing their first two, have particularly forgiving matchups with 30th-placed Girona and 25th-placed Dinamo Zagreb.

Real Madrid and Manchester City could finish in the top eight by ending the league phase with consecutive wins. While Madrid have a plausible layup against Salzburg, City face PSG on Wednesday.

A loss for PSG would be catastrophic and leave them in a potential winner-take-all scenario to stay in the Champions League in their final match against Stuttgart.

As it stands

Bound for round of 16

Bound for playoff round

Teams heading for elimination