Permutations in Europe: What's still at stake in final weeks of season?

There's plenty to play for across Europe as we come out of the March international break and head into the stretch run of the season. The continent's top leagues are all barreling toward a conclusion, with no more international windows on the schedule until June. Here are the title races, Champions League fights, and relegation battles left to be decided in the top leagues, along with a breakdown of the various ways different leagues can earn extra European spots for next season.

Note: This story will be updated until the end of the season.

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EPL | LA LIGA | SERIE A | BUNDESLIGA | LIGUE 1 | GOLDEN SHOE

Premier League 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Title race

This is a "race" in name only. What was once shaping up to be a thrilling battle between Liverpool and Arsenal has turned into more of a procession, with Arne Slot's team closing in on a record-equaling 20th title in the English top flight.

Arsenal's maximum point total now stands at 85, meaning the Reds' magic number to clinch is 16. The earliest the title can be won is April 13.

The Premier League's first tiebreaker, if necessary, is goal difference.

European qualification

Based on the current UEFA coefficient and the number of English teams left in this season's European tournaments, the Premier League is all but assured of earning an extra Champions League spot for the 2025-26 campaign. Whoever finishes fifth will likely compete in the competition next year.

England should send eight total teams to Europe next season:

• Champions League: League positions one to five
• Europa League: Sixth place, FA Cup winners
• Conference League: Carabao Cup winners

Newcastle have already won the Carabao Cup and are guaranteed of at least a Conference League spot. If they qualify for the Champions League or Europa League via their league position, then the Conference League berth will be granted to the highest Premier League finisher that isn't qualified for another European competition. The FA Cup could have a similar impact on proceedings, depending on who wins.

Though very unlikely, it's possible for England to have 11 teams in European competition next season - the eight entrants outlined above, plus three more if Premier League clubs win each of the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League this season.

There was once a limit on how many teams from a single country could compete in the Champions League in any given season - it was previously capped at five - but that's since been removed by UEFA.

Relegation and promotion

It's looking increasingly certain that this season's three promoted teams - Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Southampton - will be going straight back down to the Championship. The latter are still in danger of setting the record for fewest points in a Premier League season. The current mark is a feeble 11, established by Derby County in 2007-08.

Down in the second tier, Leeds United, Sheffield United, and Burnley are fighting to secure automatic promotion. The top two teams will go up, while the third and final spot in the Premier League will be decided by the always riveting promotion playoffs, which involve the teams that finish third through sixth.

La Liga 🇪🇸

Title race

Arguably the most enthralling title race on the continent this year, Spain's scrap for top spot involves an intertwined trio of bitter rivals. Hansi Flick's exuberant Barcelona side, looking to dethrone Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid, currently has the edge. The two behemoths next meet in Catalonia on May 11, and the title could still be up for grabs at that point. Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid are fading after going winless in three games.

La Liga's first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, followed by goal difference in head-to-head matches. Barca's 4-0 rout of Real Madrid in October, at the Santiago Bernabeu, looms large.

European qualification

Spain, like England, is in a very strong position to earn an additional Champions League berth. The Premier League and La Liga currently have a healthy advantage over Serie A in the race for the two available extra spots.

Spain's top flight should send eight total teams to Europe next season:

• Champions League: League positions one to five
• Europa League: Sixth place, Copa del Rey winners
• Conference League: Seventh place

Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Atletico, and Barcelona are in the semifinals of the Copa del Rey, so there's a decent chance Spain's Conference League place will drop down a spot and be awarded to whoever finishes eighth in the table. Sociedad, currently ninth, may need to win the cup to qualify for Europe.

Relegation and promotion

Spain's relegation scrap is going to be a dogfight. It's only a matter of time until Real Valladolid, who have the fewest goals of any team in Europe's top five leagues this season, are officially sent down. That'll leave five teams frantically fighting to avoid the other two spots in the drop zone.

Valencia, formerly a European power that's decayed over the years due to financial mismanagement and boardroom chaos, are the most high-profile team in danger. They spent some time this season in last place before a decent run of form (relatively speaking) pulled them out of the bottom three.

Spain's second division is similar to the English Championship - the top two finishers jump directly to the top tier, while teams finishing third through sixth enter a promotion playoff. The race is incredibly tight right now, with only 10 points separating first place (Levante) from eighth place (Granada).

Serie A 🇮🇹

Title race

Another three-team affair, though this one doesn't have quite the same luster or historical hatred amongst its contenders as the aforementioned triumvirate in Spain. Simone Inzaghi's Inter Milan are looking to retain their Serie A crown and have taken advantage of Napoli's recent wobbles to grab first place over Antonio Conte's men. Atalanta have been the most unpredictable of the trio and fell six points adrift when they lost at home to Inter in their last match before the international break.

If the top two teams are tied on points at the end of the season, they'll play a one-game winner-take-all finale for the title. If three teams are tied, a mini table will be used tabulating each side's points tally in games involving just those three teams. From there, the top two would play a title-deciding game.

The only time a Scudetto playoff has been required in Serie A was 1964, when Bologna beat Inter to claim the last of their seven titles.

European qualification

As many as six clubs are in the running for fourth place, which figures to be the last of Serie A's coveted Champions League spots. Bologna, riding high after five consecutive wins, currently occupy that position. Juventus were being touted as potential Scudetto contenders just weeks ago, only to lose two matches by a combined 7-0 scoreline and subsequently fire Thiago Motta. It's now Igor Tudor's job to get them into the Champions League. Things change quickly. Just ask Roma, who have been totally reborn under Claudio Ranieri and find themselves right in the mix after going unbeaten in 14 league games.

Serie A's European allotment should break down as follows:

• Champions League: League positions one to four
• Europa League: Fifth place, Coppa Italia winners
• Conference League: Sixth place

Inter, AC Milan, Bologna, and unlikely contenders Empoli are in the semifinals of the Coppa Italia, which could impact that allocation. Depending on who wins the competition, finishing seventh in Serie A could yield a Conference League place.

There are direct matchups involving most of the six teams in question between now and season's end, so expect this to be a topsy-turvy race.

Relegation and promotion

Basement dwellers Monza are quickly running out of time to save their season, while 19th-placed Venezia need to throw caution to the wind and start turning draws into wins after tying four of their last five contests. A playoff will be used if two teams finished tied for 18th place.

In Serie B, the top two finishers make the leap up automatically, while those who finish third through eighth enter a playoff for the last promotion place. Former Serie A mainstays Sassuolo currently lead the second tier, while Pisa and Spezia jostle for second.

Bundesliga 🇩🇪

Title race

Is this the year Harry Kane finally ends his career-long trophy drought? Bayern Munich are in pole position to reclaim their throne after Bayer Leverkusen used an unbeaten domestic campaign to snap their run of 11 consecutive titles last season. The Bavarian squad is chasing a 34th top-flight crown. No other German club has even hit double figures.

The Bundesliga's primary tiebreaker is goal difference.

European qualification

It's been an unusual year in Germany thus far. Defensively stout Mainz have come out of nowhere to push for a Champions League place, while Eintracht Frankfurt have been able to stay in contention despite losing Egyptian star Omar Marmoush to Manchester City in the winter transfer window. Meanwhile, Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund, two sides that participated in this season's Champions League, are languishing in midtable.

Germany's European allotment should break down as follows:

• Champions League: League positions one to four
• Europa League: Fifth place, DFB-Pokal winners
• Conference League: Sixth place

Third-tier club Arminia Bielefeld have made a Cinderella run to the semifinals of the German Cup. They're joined by Leverkusen, Stuttgart, and RB Leipzig. Depending on who wins the competition, finishing seventh in the Bundesliga could be enough for a Conference League place.

Relegation and promotion

The 18-team Bundesliga uses a distinctive system to determine their final relegation and promotion places. The bottom two teams are automatically sent down to Bundesliga 2, while the top pair from the second division replaces them. Then it gets interesting. The outfit that finishes 16th in the Bundesliga enters a two-legged playoff against the third-placed squad from Bundesliga 2. The winner gets next season's spot in the top division.

This unique method is known simply in Germany as the "Relegation."

If the season ended today, familiar faces Hamburg and FC Koln would return to the Bundesliga, while Paderborn would play Heidenheim in the playoff.

Ligue 1 🇫🇷

Title race

Paris Saint-Germain are, once again, blowing away the rest of the field in France. Powered by the incandescent Ousmane Dembele, Luis Enrique's squad looks like the very best in all of Europe right now, let alone in Ligue 1, and could officially be crowned French champions in their next match.

PSG are seeking their 11th league title in 13 seasons and could yet become the first Ligue 1 side to complete an undefeated domestic campaign.

European qualification

Unlike the other top European divisions, Ligue 1 only gets three automatic Champions League berths. Whoever finishes fourth enters the Champions League qualification rounds.

Goal difference is the first tiebreaker in Ligue 1. With so many teams bunched so tightly together in the race for Europe, that may be required.

France's European allotment should break down as follows:

• Champions League: League positions one to three
• Champions League qualifying: Fourth place
• Europa League: Fifth place, Coupe de France winners
• Conference League: Sixth place

PSG are heavy favorites to win the Coupe de France. They meet second-tier side Dunkerque in the semis. The other semifinal features Ligue 1 strugglers Reims against fourth-tier club Cannes, who are enjoying one of the most magical cup runs in recent memory. What a film that would be if they were to win it all. A PSG triumph in the cup could open the door for a team that otherwise would've missed out on European competition to enter the fray.

Relegation and promotion

Ligue 1's relegation system is similar to that of the Bundesliga.

The bottom two teams (18th and 17th) tumble to the second tier, while the 16th-place finisher gets a chance at salvation in a playoff against a team from the second tier.

If the Ligue 2 season finished as is right now, Lorient and Metz would be promoted as the top two teams in the second tier. The teams that finish third through fifth enter a mini tournament to determine which Ligue 2 squad gets a shot at the promotion/relegation playoff.

At the moment, Paris FC, suddenly one of the richest clubs in France after a recent high-profile ownership change, are third in Ligue 2. Their bid to join fellow Parisian outfit PSG in the top flight is very much alive and would create an interesting dynamic and rivalry next season if they can pull it off.

European Golden Shoe 🏅

The European Golden Shoe is awarded to the highest scorer across the top tiers of Europe's various domestic leagues. Kane took home the award in 2023-24 after racking up 36 Bundesliga tallies.

Only goals in league matches are considered, and a coefficient points system is used to weigh the strength of different leagues. The top five leagues based on UEFA's rankings have a coefficient factor of two, while the leagues ranked sixth to 22nd by the governing body have a factor of 1.5. That's why Sporting CP hitman Viktor Gyokeres, for example, isn't leading this season's table right now despite scoring more league goals than Liverpool's Mohamed Salah.

If two players finish tied on points, the one who accumulated those points in fewer minutes on the field is ranked higher.