DOHA, QATAR - DECEMBER 04: Kylian Mbappe of France reacts to his second goal during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Round of 16 match between France and Poland at Al Thumama Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Doha, Qatar.

World Cup semifinals best bets: France to end Morocco's storybook run

3 years ago
Lionel Hahn / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Three games. That is all that remains in what has been a wildly entertaining and, at times, shocking World Cup.

Which teams will duke it out for the big prize next weekend? We'll attempt to answer just that with our best bets for the semifinals.

Argentina (-125) vs. Croatia (+380)

Argentina got past the Netherlands by the skin of its teeth last time out, but the Argentines largely played well.

Shots were 14-6 in their favor and they accumulated nearly three times as many looks on target and won the expected goal battle. Considering they led from about the half-hour mark until 11 minutes into second-half stoppages so score effects (playing to protect a lead) had a long time to make a mark, those numbers are impressive, especially given the opponent.

That should not be the least bit surprising given what we've seen from La Albiceleste in this tournament. They have a boatload of talent and have managed to win the expected goal battle in all five fixtures thus far. That's clearly a recipe for success.

Although Croatia is anything but an easy out, I expect Argentina to take care of business.

Croatia has lost the expected goal battle in three of five matches thus far. The Croatians have relied on world-class goalkeeping from Dominik Livakovic - he has stopped 19 of 22 shots (86.4%) - at one end and clinical finishing at the other.

That style allows them to hang around in games more often than not but I can't see it being enough to get by Lionel Messi and Co.

You simply don't want to be letting players like that hang on to the ball for long spells and create more opportunities than you over the span of 90 minutes. It generally doesn't end well.

I expect a tough, grind-it-out match, but I like Argentina to prevail after 90 minutes and allow Messi's swan song to include a World Cup final appearance.

Bet: Argentina (-125)

France (-190) vs. Morocco (+550)

Morocco's World Cup run has been nothing short of miraculous. Not only have the Morrocans advanced far beyond anyone's wildest dreams, but they have bested plenty of high-caliber teams along the way.

Morocco was able to grind its way through a very difficult group. Since then, things have only gotten tougher.

The Moroccans conceded just one shot on target in 120-plus minutes en route to an upset win over Spain. They followed that up with another shocking victory, beating a stacked Portugal side that looked the part of a true contender.

Morocco will duel with another powerhouse in hopes of advancing to the final. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.

Morocco deserves a lot of credit for playing tight, compact defense and getting the odd goal when needed to grind out wins. It's not really sustainable to finish second best in expected goals every single game and still achieve strong outcomes.

You can only get outpossessed, outshot, outchanced, and outplayed so many times before stumbling into a negative result; especially against a team with France's firepower.

While this France squad is missing a lot of midfield talent and can be susceptible to hiccups on defense, Les Bleus have an overwhelming attack led by Kylian Mbappe. The French can turn what feels like a harmless spell on the ball into a goal at a moment's notice.

This feels like a game where France will dominate possession while Morocco focuses on keeping a compact shape and avoiding breakdowns in the middle of the pitch. I expect the latter to largely be successful in doing so but all it will take is one or two big moments for France to capitalize.

Morocco will be in this game and, at times, it might even feel like the Moroccans have a real chance of winning it. In the end, I think France's quality in the final third will prove to be the difference in a relatively low-scoring affair.

Bet: France & Under 4.5 (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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