Buy or Sell: A Trade for McCutch Could Come Up Clutch
Like the stock market, fantasy baseball is about buying low and selling high. There's value to be had by those that stay a step or two in front of the next trend. Here are three players who you should buy-low on, and three players who you should sell-high on:
Buy
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Someone in your league who drafted McCutchen in the first round might be willing to give up on him. The Pirates center fielder is hitting just .236 on the season. However, McCutchen is a notoriously slow starter. Here's a look at his career OPS by month:
Month | OPS |
---|---|
March/April | .770 |
May | .925 |
June | .931 |
July | .919 |
August | .887 |
Sept./Oct. | .861 |
As you can see, now is the perfect time to buy-low on McCutchen. It will likely cost you something big, but keep in mind that he's one of the best players in the entire game. He was a first round pick for a reason. Do your best to convince McCutchen's owner that he's getting old, his steals have gone down each year etc. Do whatever it takes.
3B/OF Miguel Sano, Twins
Sano was likely drafted somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds in your draft. His .247 average and three homers aren't of the numbers expected in such a high pick. Use this, along with his high strikeout totals, to talk Sano down when negotiating a trade with his owner.
The 23-year-old got off to a dreadful start to begin the season. Through the first 11 games of the season he was hitting just .143 with no home runs. Since then? He's hitting .326 with three home runs and taking plenty of walks. He's reached base safely in 18 straight games. He will strikeout a lot, but the huge power numbers are just around the corner.
SP Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks
Miller should be the easiest player of the three to be acquired via trade - if he hasn't already been dropped. His 1.932 WHIP is higher than Zack Greinke's and Jake Arrieta's ERAs from a season ago. Oh, and his ERA is 8.69. He's been terrible, to say the least.
There can be many reasons a pitcher declines so quickly: Age? Can't be, he's only 25. Workload? That shouldn't be an issue either, as his innings have steadily rather than rapidly increased over the past three seasons.
Here's why Miller can very well turn his season around. First off, he's adjusting to a new team and a new ballpark. Chase Field is very hitter friendly thanks to the higher altitude, so he may not post a 3.02 ERA as he did last season, but he can still be very useful in fantasy. Secondly, his HR/FB ratio is an absurdly high 20.7 percent, whereas the league average sits around 9.5 percent. Expect this to level out over the course of a season.
Miller is also using his change up more than ever before, and it's getting rocked. Expect him to rely more on his array of fastballs (a four-seam, a two-seam and a cutter) that has worked so well for him in the past. Establishing the heater sets up his devastating breaking ball, and then the change up can be thrown into the mix from time-to-time. He and D-Backs pitching coach Mike Harkey are probably making adjustments as you read this.
Sell
SP Mat Latos, White Sox
Latos' return to stardom has been one of the best stories in baseball. He's 4-0 with an 0.74 ERA and an 0.82 WHIP. Those numbers are the foundation of your selling point, along with his career stats besides a disastrous 2015 season.
When you dig deeper into the numbers, Latos has been very lucky. His 0.37 HR/FB ratio will regress to the mean. He has stranded a miraculous 96.9 percent of base runners. This is likely to change.
Perhaps the most mind-blowing stat is his .167 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The league average is .300, so you can expect nearly double the balls put in play against Latos to turn into hits. This isn't good considering his strikeout rate is about eight points lower than his career average. Trade Latos before all of this good fortune catches up to him.
OF Dexter Fowler, Cubs
Fowler has been one of the best players in the league so far this season. He's slashing .347/.474/.613 and is hitting atop the order, leading to plenty of runs and hits. It would be tough to give him up, but you could garner a massive return for a player who is overachieving.
While he's always had a good OBP, Fowler is just a career .269 hitter. His average this year has been vastly inflated by a .426 BABIP and a hard-hit percentage of 45.6. The hard-hit percentage is a good sign for him, but over a full season, that tends to even out. The leaders are usually big time home run hitters.
OF Steven Souza Jr., Rays
Souza Jr. is just in his second full season in the major leagues, which can be used as leverage in trade negotiations. If you play your cards right, a nice little return could be had for the Rays RF.
Souza Jr. has big time power, as displayed by his five home runs this year. However, for a home run hitter, Souza Jr. doesn't hit many fly balls. His HR/FB percentage is an absurdly high 41.7 percent and his BABIP is almost 100 points higher than his batting average.
Despite the power, Souza Jr. still strikes out a ton. His 33.3 strikeout percentage is nearly the same as it was last season when he hit just .225. Trade him ASAP.