Mitchell Marner's linemates are helping him reach elite fantasy status
Follow theScore's fantasy feed on Twitter (@theScoreFantasy) for the latest news, features and more. And download Squad Up, theScore's free-to-win-money sports game.
Mitchell Marner flew under the radar heading into the 2016-17 season. Auston Matthews garnered all the attention in Toronto - especially after his four-goal performance on opening night. Even William Nylander, who already had 22 NHL games under his belt heading into the season, was widely expected to outperform Marner.
Marner was a question mark to even make the team this year. He is still just 19 years old and had one more year of junior eligibility. Many thought his slight frame wouldn't be able to withstand the punishing NHL game. He is listed at 170 pounds, but that seems awfully generous. This uncertainty left him as a late-round pick in most fantasy drafts - if he was chosen at all.
After an illustrious junior career in which Marner won practically every award one can possibly win in a season, the crafty winger (he is a natural center, for the record) has tore up the NHL with seven goals and nine assists in 17 games. His 16 points are second to Patrik Laine's 17 among NHL rookies, though Marner has played in two fewer games than Winnipeg's phenom.
This should go without saying, but if Marner is somehow still available in your fantasy league, add him immediately.
Despite his slender build, Marner is able to succeed because of his advanced hockey intelligence, elite edge work, soft hands and exceptional vision. Check out how quick he is able to turn up ice in transition and get a pass through a defender to set up James van Riemsdyk at 41 seconds in the video below:
If you watch the rest of the video, Marner's final assist at 1:15 is just flat out absurd. It's as if he has eyes on the back of his head. You simply cannot teach a player how to pass like that.
In order to be an elite fantasy player, you need to be able to put the puck in the back of the net as well. The following video is a great demonstration of his ability to finish.
While the quick hands to undress James Reimer may be what stands out to most viewers, what really struck me was his ability to protect the puck using his legs with a defender draped all over him, and still have the ability to pull off a deke many NHL players can't even complete in practice.
Despite his incredible ability as a 19-year-old, Marner hasn't done it all by himself. Unlike Matthews and Nylander, Marner has been fortunate enough to skate alongside two veterans to begin his career:
LW James van Riemsdyk
The 6-foot-3, 210-pound van Riemsdyk is a perfect complement opposite Marner. He can win battles down low, beat defensemen one-on-one and is constantly driving the net with force.
Going to the net is something van Riemsdyk somewhat got away from during an injury riddled 2015-16 season. His Avg.DIST (average shot distance) spiked up to 27 feet last season, per Corsica.Hockey, which was the furthest of his Leafs career. This season it is back down to 24.5 feet.
Part of why JVR took more shots from the outside last year was because it was his first season as a Maple Leaf where he didn't play alongside Phil Kessel. There was simply nothing to drive the net for with P.A. Parenteau or Brad Boyes on his right wing last season. Marner has the ability to create scoring chances, therefore giving van Riemsdyk a reason to crash the net.
C Tyler Bozak
To be frank, Tyler Bozak is nothing special. He is a creative passer with average hands, a good enough skater and his shot is accurate enough to finish when he gets opportune scoring chances. With his all-around average skill set, he can keep a line afloat if he has enough talent around him.
Perhaps Bozak's best asset is his own self-understanding. The veteran knows he isn't the most physically gifted player and he plays within his own abilities. He is a facilitator. Bozak can make good, quick passes in tight spaces in order to set up his teammates. He is a good complement to someone like Marner who loves having the puck on his stick, and JVR, who is a mismatch below the hash marks.
Productive Trio
The line's chemistry has resulted in van Riemsdyk (17), Marner (16) and Bozak (14) ranking first, second and third, respectively, on the Leafs in points. Here is how the line ranks in comparison to other trios around the league (a line must have spent at least 50 minutes together to qualify; stats are only based on 5v5 ice time):
| Stat | Rank |
|---|---|
| Shots for | 3 |
| Goals for | 1 |
| xGF (expected goals for) | 1 |
| xGF60 (per 60 minutes) | 3 |
| SCF (scoring chances for) | 2 |
| SCF60 (per 60 minutes) | 3 |
| OZS (offensive zone starts) | 1 |
| OZF (offensive zone finishes) | 2 |
| PENDIFF (penalty differential) | 7 |
Toronto's other scoring line consisting of Matthews, Nylander and Zach Hyman actually ranks ahead of the Marner line in many of the aforementioned stats. This will continue to cause coaches to game plan around both lines, therefore mitigating the amount of time the Marner line will see against top D pairings and elite checking lines.
Fantasy Outlook
Marner's hot stretch (six goals, four assists in seven games) may tempt owners to sell high on the rookie. This shouldn't even be a thought if you own him in keeper leagues. I would still advise against it in standard leagues, unless you are getting a ridiculous return.
If you don't own Marner but wish to acquire him, you're better off waiting until he cools down a bit. As a rookie, he will endure many peaks and valleys during the season. Wait until he is stuck in a cold spell before attempting to trade for him.
Given Marner's individual ability, plus the strong situation he is in as a rookie, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him finish as the NHL's leading rookie point-getter. A 65-70 point season is very much in the cards, which would cement his status as an elite fantasy player.