NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Patriots and Saints bounce back in big ways

Week 5 has arrived.

Week 4 was a good one, as I went 3-2-1 ATS (although you probably went 4-2 ATS, getting the 49ers at a better line than I did at the time of my post). This season has been full of peaks and valleys through four weeks, so hopefully I can buck that trend and produce my first back-to-back winning weeks. I absolutely love this weekend’s card. 

I literally considered making a play on 11 of the 13 games in this weekend’s preview, but settled on six. If you’ve read my previews in years past, you know that I always try to be very selective, but I feel as though there are a lot of good wagering opportunities being presented this week.

Once again, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats, and other items of note for each game. I've also left out the Monday Night Football write-up for the second consecutive week - it will be included in my Monday recap.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 5.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Panthers -3 +105, total 46

The Pick: The Panthers are coming off of back-to-back humiliating losses in which they struggled to score, and were torn apart on defense. The regression that we expected from Carolina this season has arrived, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t get back on track, particularly against a Bears squad that I don’t think is all that good either. 

The best word to describe Chicago’s defense is non-existent. The Bears are surrendering 25 points per game, which is actually quite flattering considering opponents are picking up 6.2 yards per play against them. 

Carolina has been held to 19 points in its last two games, and the main reason for that has been their inability to run the ball. The Panthers have major injury concerns at running back where DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Fozzy Whittaker could all miss this week’s contest, but I’m not sure if that really matters against a Bears run defense that surrenders 4.7 yards per carry. 

Even if Darrin Reaves proves to be the second coming of Trent Richardson and is a huge failure out of the backfield for the Panthers, Cam Newton should be able to find some open receivers against a leaky Bears secondary, which ranks in the bottom-five in the league in yards per attempt. 

Carolina’s defense has also been a huge area of concern, and the absence of Greg Hardy is starting to take its toll. With that being said, there is still enough talent on this Panthers defense that they’re capable of rebounding off of two straight abysmal performances, especially against a quarterback like Jay Cutler who is known to implode on occasion (see 2nd half vs. Packers last week). The Panthers rebound. Panthers 24, Bears 17

The Wager: This looks to be a potential flat spot for the Bears after coming off a run of huge games - they've played on "Sunday Night Football," "Monday Night Football," and against the Packers over the last three weeks. I’m not sure how they’ll react off of last week’s tough loss to Green Bay, especially in a road game against a team that’s been shamed for two straight weeks. 

With that being said, it’s hard to recommend a play on Carolina as a favorite right now. I personally played Panthers -2.5 when the line first opened but the cluster of injuries at running back worries me enough that I wouldn't play it at the current time. Pass

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

Friday Consensus Line: Titans -2, total 44.5

The Pick: Week in and week out, I’ve been getting burned by Tennessee. I sound like a broken record talking about how the Titans are not as bad as they look, but I’ll reiterate my thoughts again this week - the Titans are not as bad as they look. 

The Titans have lost to two of the best teams in the AFC in the past couple of weeks, but they have a favorable matchup against Cleveland this week, even with the Browns coming off a bye week. 

Tennessee’s strength on offense is its offensive line and ability to run up the middle; strengths that were neutralized when they fell behind early in the past couple of games. But Cleveland isn’t a team that is going to build up a margin early on and that works heavily in the Titans' favor. 

Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt said rookie running back Bishop Sankey will get more playing time this weekend and that’s a major upgrade over the less than compelling plodder Shonn Greene, who is as exciting to watch as an episode of "Dads."

Cleveland has the second-worst run defense in the league, surrendering 5.2 yards per carry and 153.7 yards per game, so the Titans should finally be able to execute their game plan this week. Remember, this is a team that dominated Kansas City on the road in Week 1, even though that seems like a millennium ago. 

Quarterback Jake Locker also returns for the Titans, which is obviously a boost to an offense that struggled under Charlie Whitehurst last week (although I don’t think Whitehurst was that bad). Tennessee’s defense has been struggling, but three straight games against the Cowboys, Bengals, and Colts’ offenses would hurt any team’s defensive numbers. 

Cleveland runs a very vanilla offense, predicated on not turning the ball over, so Tennessee should actually be able to generate some stops this weekend. The Titans get it done at home. Titans 20, Browns 16

The Wager: I’ve learned my lesson betting on some bad teams this season and will avoid those teams going forward, but I’m not convinced Tennessee is in that group just yet. The return of Locker should boost the team’s morale, and as I mentioned above, I think this is a strong matchup for them. I’ll go back to the well one more time. Titans -2

St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -7 -105, total 47.5

The Pick: The Eagles may be the most fraudulent team in the league right now, more fraudulent than LeBron James's new hairline. 

Philadelphia built up a double-digit deficit in each of their first three games of the season, before mounting a comeback in each one (albeit the comeback against the Colts was aided heavily by some terrible officiating). Last week, Philadelphia had a chance to upset the 49ers on the road thanks to two special teams touchdowns and a pick-six, but they fell short when they couldn't punch the ball in from the 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter. 

The Eagles were outgained by nearly 200 yards in that contest, and this is starting to become a recurring theme for a team that seems to have infinite horseshoes. 

Philadelphia welcomes back right tackle Lane Johnson from his suspension, but that’s just one piece of an offensive line that is still a complete train wreck without center Jason Kelce and guard Evan Mathis in the lineup. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams’ defensive line as the fourth best in the league in adjusted sack rate through four weeks, so it looks like the Eagles will have the same issues they’ve been having up front all season. Running back LeSean McCoy has managed just 39 yards on 29 rushing attempts in the past two weeks, and the playmakers on the Rams’ defensive line will ensure that those numbers don’t get much better. 

Nick Foles will once again be working out of unfavorable situations all afternoon, and based on what I've seen out of Foles this season, that’s not a recipe for success, especially against a Rams defense that can generate a consistent pass rush. 

And we haven’t even gotten to the Eagles’ “defense” yet. Linebacker Mychal Kendricks is expected to miss another game at linebacker, which leaves Philadelphia with some major issues in their defensive front seven. Rams quarterback Austin Davis is by no means an elite commodity, but he’s proven to be more than serviceable in his two starts, and will have had a full two weeks to prepare for one of the league’s worst defenses. Put the Eagles on upset alert. Rams 26, Eagles 23

The Wager: There’s this perception that the Eagles are one of the league’s better teams, but they really aren’t. St. Louis has already won on the road this year (ok, beating the Bucs in Tampa isn't exactly the greatest feat), and I’m still wondering how they failed to get by Dallas a couple of weeks ago (and I’m a Cowboys fan). 

Philadelphia enters this game off of a cross country trip to San Francisco having been massively outgained by the Redskins and 49ers in back-to-back weeks. Now they’re laying a touchdown without any semblance of a defense? Rams +7

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Friday Consensus Line: Giants -4, total 50.5

The Pick: It was only two weeks ago that everyone was crowning the Giants as a legit competitor for the first overall pick in the upcoming draft, but a lot has changed since then. 

Quarterback Eli Manning has suddenly grasped new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's West Coast offense, and the Giants defense has gone from a weakness to a strength in the span of two weeks. 

I’m not entirely ready to buy into New York just yet, but from what I can tell, this appears to be a very favorable matchup for them again this week. Atlanta is in a world of hurt right now, especially on defense. To put things into perspective, Minnesota rushed for 241 yards against Atlanta last week, and that was without Adrian Peterson in the lineup! 

The Falcons have conceded at least 472 total yards in three of their four games this season, and the Giants offense suddenly appears to be one of the more balanced units in the league, so this could be yet another poor showing for Atlanta’s defense. 

The Falcons defense isn't the only unit with concerns, as Atlanta has some major woes along its offensive line. The Falcons had to finish last week with a tight end playing right tackle, and were forced to sign a lineman off of their practice squad this week. 

Matt Ryan is a great quarterback, but he’s already thrown five interceptions in two road games this season, and will likely be under duress all afternoon against a fierce New York pass rush. 

The Giants have forced a whopping nine turnovers in their last two victories, and this one can get ugly fast if New York can replicate either of those performances. Atlanta hasn’t won on the road since 2012, and I don’t think this is the week where they snap that streak. Giants 31, Falcons 20

The Wager: Everything I’ve written so far would lead you to believe that I’m taking the Giants, but I’m not. This game was a pick’em prior to last week’s games, but the spread has risen four points because of those outcomes. 

1Some of that increase is warranted due to the Falcons’ injuries, but this is a completely different dynamic for the Giants, going from a road dog to a home favorite. I don’t completely buy into trends, but the Falcons have a good track record of bouncing back after humiliating losses as well. Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -10, total 48

The Pick: What’s wrong with the Saints? Well, the main issue for New Orleans is that they were scheduled eight road games this season and have had to play three of them in the first four weeks. That’s less than optimal for a team that is awful away from home. 

But now New Orleans gets to return home where they haven’t lost a game under Sean Payton since Week 17 of the 2010 season. Good luck Tampa. Quarterback Mike Glennon proved that he was an improvement over Josh McCown, leading the Bucs to a 27-24 win in Pittsburgh, but it’s not really that difficult to improve upon complete trash. 

Glennon made some big plays, but was only 21-for-42, which is a cause for concern going forward. Glennon started in New Orleans last season and was only able to manage a paltry 5.3 yards per attempt in a 42-17 beatdown by the Saints. 

The Saints defense has struggled mightily this season, but they’re a completely different animal at home where they are aided by one of the loudest atmospheres in the league. 

The Saints held the Vikings to just 9 points a couple of weeks ago, even with Teddy Bridgewater taking over for an injured Matt Cassel midway through the game. If the Saints’ defense can limit the Bucs’ offense to a couple of touchdowns, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning this one. Defensive linemen Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson are back in the Bucs’ lineup, but their secondary still has some major holes that can be exploited. 

Ben Roethlisberger was 29-for-40 with 314 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Bucs, and I don’t have to remind you of what the Falcons offense did to the Bucs in the Georgia Dome a couple of weeks ago. Drew Brees had a 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio at home a year ago, so I’d fully expect to see New Orleans make a statement this weekend. Saints 38, Buccaneers 17

The Wager: I am extremely tempted to lay these points with New Orlean,s but there’s just no line value whatsoever here. The Saints were 7.5-point favorites in this game before the season started, yet somehow that number has gone up to double-digits despite their terrible start. It’s hard to ignore the fact that the Saints are 17-0-1 ATS in their last 18 home games when Sean Payton has been on the sidelines, but I play numbers, not trends. Pass (very reluctantly)

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Friday Consensus Line: Cowboys -6, total 46.5

The Pick: There are a lot of conflicting angles in this game, and that makes this one of the more difficult matchups to predict this week. 

Dallas is coming off of an obliteration of the Saints which has certainly made them overvalued heading into this week, but I can’t help but think that this is another good matchup for the Cowboys. 

It’s only taken Jason Garrett a handful of years to figure out that the Cowboys’ offense can be successful when they run the ball, and Dallas has proceeded to run all over their opponents to begin the season. Running back DeMarco Murray leads the NFL in rushing by a country mile and having that running game has taken a lot of pressure off the shoulders of Tony Romo. 

Houston’s defense has been above average this season, but they have struggled mightily to defend the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. That number is terrible, but it’s even more terrible when you consider the quarterbacks that they’ve faced - Robert Griffin III, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, and E.J. Manuel - none of whom pose a legitimate downfield threat. The Texans have been able to focus in on the run and have still been unable to stop it, which isn’t a good sign heading into this week. With that being said, I’m not quite sold on the Dallas defense just yet either. 

The Cowboys have been getting away with allowing a ton of yardage and getting some timely stops, but this is still one of the league’s worst units in terms of personnel. Austin Davis tore apart the Cowboys' secondary two weeks ago, so who’s to say that veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t do the same? 

At the end of the day, I can see both teams moving the ball quite consistently, but I have more faith in the Cowboys offense right now, especially now that they aren’t heavily reliant on Romo. Houston comes up short in the Battle of Texas. Cowboys 28, Texans 24

The Wager: After the Cowboys’ win on "Sunday Night Football," I told myself that I would be betting against them next week under almost any circumstances. Dallas is a notoriously horrible favorite, but I’m just not comfortable taking the points with a Texans team that has looked less than impressive against one of the most favorable NFL schedules thus far. Houston has a big Thursday night divisional game on deck with the Colts as well, and that’s enough for me to stay away here. Pass

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -7, total 43.5

The Pick: I never imagined that a quarterback switch to Kyle Orton could be an upgrade for any team, but that’s precisely what it is for the Bills. EJ Manuel was a complete atrocity for the last couple of weeks, so he’s rightfully been pulled in favor of Orton. Unfortunately, this seems to be a nightmare matchup for the former Boilermaker. 

Orton is nothing more than a game manager at this point in his career, so he’ll have to rely heavily on the running game to move the chains. Unfortunately for him, Detroit is pretty stout against the run thanks to a strong front seven. The Lions may be due for a bit of a regression now that middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch has hit injured reserve after this epic celebration, but they still are well equipped to keep C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in check. 

Oddly enough, Detroit’s defense has carried them to start the season as their offense has struggled since putting a beating on the Giants in Week 1. Megatron has been weighed down by a bum hamstring, and Matt Stafford just doesn't seem to be the same quarterback when he can’t throw endless jump balls to Johnson (who would have known?!). 

Stafford is also going to face a ton of pressure this weekend from a Bills defense that ranks fourth in the league with 11 sacks. And to make matters even worse, Detroit’s running game will find it difficult to pick up yardage against the league’s second best run defense, yielding a measly 2.9 yards per carry. 

Jim Schwartz has done a nice job as Buffalo’s defensive coordinator and he’s potentially an X-factor in this contest as well, as he should be able to devise a good game plan to shut down his former team. Maybe I’m starting to lose my mind but I’ve actually convinced myself that this is a winnable game for Buffalo. Bills 19, Lions 17  

The Wager: I don’t think I’m ready to buy into the Lions just yet. Detroit has looked impressive in their 3-1 start, but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by their poor opposition (Green Bay being the exception, although the Packers’ offensive line was in shambles). 

Buffalo is notoriously a very poor road team, but I think they’ll be up for this game because of the Jim Schwartz factor, and because of the change at quarterback. This is too many points to lay with a team that has struggled on offense for three straight weeks. Bills +7

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -3 -130, total 49

The Pick: Andrew Luck is in his third season in the NFL, and it’s evident that he’s already a top-five quarterback in the league. Each week, I sit here and write about how the Colts inexplicably continue to use Trent Richardson out of the backfield, how their secondary is an abomination, how they have no pass rush whatsoever, but none of it ever seems to matter because Luck is that damn good. 

The Ravens have a stout run defense, which will probably force Luck into a lot of third-and-long situations after Richardson lumbers for minimal yards on first and second down, but the former Stanford star will find a way to convert those unfavorable situations into first downs. 

Indianapolis leads the league in first downs through the air (77) by a wide margin over the next highest team, Atlanta (65). The Ravens have registered only four sacks through four weeks, so Luck should once again face very little resistance in moving the chains. 

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco was able to luckbox his way to 38 points against Carolina last week, but I have little faith in his ability to duplicate that effort this week. 

For starters, Flacco has some of the biggest home/road splits of any starting quarterback in football, and it won’t help that left tackle Eugene Monroe is expected to miss a month with a knee injury. Indianapolis has held Jacksonville and Tennessee to 17 points apiece in their last two contests, and while that’s not particularly impressive against weak competition, Flacco on the road also qualifies as weak competition. 

This is just the second road game for a Ravens squad that went 2-6 on the road a season ago, and only won in Cleveland earlier this season because Billy Cundiff missed two crucial field goal attempts. It’s luck vs. Luck this week in Indy - one runs out, the other doesn't. Colts 27, Ravens 14

The Wager: Indianapolis plays an important divisional contest against Houston on Thursday, so they’re in a potential lookahead spot here. The Colts have also looked really good against inferior competition in back-to-back weeks so I’m weary of betting them at what is likely a peak. This was the last play that I cut from my card, and it was very tough to do so, but for now I’ll lay off. Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -6 -115, total 47

The Pick: It seems like a lot of these big favorites are in vulnerable spots this week, and this appears to be another one of those situations. Injuries are piling up on the defensive side of the ball for the Steelers as they’ll be without cornerback Ike Taylor and linebacker Ryan Shazier. 

This wouldn’t have been a major issue for Pittsburgh if useless Chad Henne was still starting at quarterback for the Jags, but it will be an issue with the more competent Blake Bortles. 

Bortles looked promising in last week’s road loss at San Diego, and should improve the Jags’ offense moving forward. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, they still have some major issues on that side of the ball, including an offensive line that is just flat out awful. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has also been known to have his way with rookie quarterbacks, but then again, a lot of those victories came when the Steelers actually had capable personnel on defense. 

The good news for Pittsburgh is that they shouldn’t face much resistance moving the ball as Ben Roethlisberger will be able to carve up a Jags defense that ranks dead last against the pass. The Jags are surrendering a whopping 38 points per game, and they simply lack the horses to keep the likes of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell in check. 

Jacksonville showed some semblance of a pass rush last week, sacking Philip Rivers three times, but that’s about the only positive that I could find for the Jags’ defense, and really, I’m just grasping at straws. All in all, the Jags figure to be much more competitive moving forward, but I like Pittsburgh to rebound here. Steelers 27, Jaguars 23

The Wager: It’s only taken back-to-back weeks of losing wagers on the Jags (and about a handful last season) to figure out that this is simply an unbettable team. 

I don’t agree with this line at all, but I’m not getting sucked into betting on Jacksonville again, especially since Pittsburgh will be looking to rebound off of an embarrassing home loss. The Jags have been outscored 142-41 over the last three-and-a-half games, and have virtually no home-field advantage. Pass (which is pretty much a guarantee that Jacksonville final covers a game this week)

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -7.5, total 47.5

The Pick: Aside from possibly the Eagles, I think Arizona may be the most overrated team in the league heading into Week 5. The Cardinals are off to a 3-0 start, but two of those three wins have come at home, with their lone road victory coming in New York where the Giants basically handed them the game with unforced red zone turnovers and stupid penalties. 

I think Arizona is in for a rude awakening this weekend when they take on a Broncos team that’s been itching to get back in the win column for two weeks..

The strength of this Cardinals squad is undoubtedly their defense, but the one thing that their defense doesn’t do well is get after the quarterback. Arizona has managed just three sacks in three games, and that’s not exactly the best recipe for beating Peyton Manning on the road. 

Sure, the Cardinals have two great cornerbacks in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie, but asking them to hold up in coverage against Denver’s elite group of receivers without a pass rush is simply a daunting task. Denver is going to score their fair share of points and that means it will be up to Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton to keep his team in the game. 

Carson Palmer continues to battle a nerve injury, so Stanton will likely be thrust into action once more. Stanton has been serviceable at quarterback, but he’ll have to be far more than serviceable this week, especially since Denver’s solid run defense figures to put the clamps down on Andre Ellington. 

Stanton is capable of making some throws down the field, but I wouldn't count on it happening consistently against one of the league’s best defenses in one of the league’s harshest environments. The Broncos get back on track in a big way. Broncos 31, Cardinals 13

The Wager: Someone tweeted me this week asking how a 3-0 team is a full touchdown underdog to a 2-1 team? Well, the records aren’t really indicative of anything. Denver has had two weeks to prepare for a backup quarterback, and they’re simply better than Arizona on both sides of the ball. Broncos -7.5 (the -7s that were available earlier in the week are long gone)

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -6 -105, total 44

The Pick: Kansas City put in one of the most complete performances of the year when they dismantled New England on Monday night, but they’re about to get a dose of reality this week in San Francisco. 

The Chiefs are not a good football team. This may come as a surprise to anyone who watched "Monday Night Football" last week, but the stars aligned for Kansas City at Arrowhead that night. 

The Chiefs are still without several key players on defense, including defensive end Mike DeVito, safety Eric Berry, and top linebacker Derrick Johnson. Kansas City has been able to mask these issues with a superb pass rush, but this is a tough spot for them, having to head out to the West Coast on a short week. 

San Francisco’s pass protection also broke down quite frequently last week, meaning that they will have placed an emphasis on keeping Colin Kaepernick upright this week. Kaepernick continues to operate with one of the lowest IQs in football, but he’s still a very capable athlete that is surrounded by great talent. 

On the other side of things, I think Alex Smith will struggle to generate offense against his former team. San Francisco is very familiar with their ex-quarterback; they know he has a weak arm, always takes the safe option, and is capable of using his feet to pick up the occasional first down. 

Jim Harbaugh’s knowledge of Smith’s tendencies will help the 49ers devise a game plan to shut down the former first overall pick. The Chiefs also rely heavily on their running game to produce offense, but the 49ers have held their last three opponents to 107 rushing yards on 44 carries (2.4 ypc), so that doesn’t bode well for Kansas City either. Don’t be fooled by recent results - the difference in class between these two teams is large, and the 49ers are a nightmare matchup for the Chiefs. 49ers 23, Chiefs 10

The Wager: I was hoping for a better line after Kansas City’s blowout over New England on Monday, but for all the reasons mentioned above, I still like the 49ers quite a bit. This shapes up to be a huge letdown spot for the Chiefs, while the 49ers would love nothing more than to stick it to their former quarterback. Lay the points. 49ers -5.5 (Pinnacle)

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers

Friday Consensus Line: Chargers -6.5 -115, total 43.5

The Pick: If you were to look at the box scores of all of the Jets’ games this season, you’d scratch your head wondering how they’re only 1-3. This New York team is certainly better than their record indicates, but poor coaching and shoddy quarterback play have hung them out to dry this season. 

Those are not easy problems to fix, and subsequently, I think the Jets will struggle in San Diego this weekend. 

Geno Smith has been predictably awful again this season, as he continues to ruin the Jets with costly turnovers. Smith has at least had the luxury of a running game in most of his starts this season, but the Chargers haven’t allowed a single opponent to run for more than 78 yards against them this season, so it’ll be up to Smith to carry the offense on his back, and we’ve all seen how that plays out. 

Meanwhile, San Diego just continues to roll right along. It’s hard not to be impressed with the job that Mike McCoy has done with this franchise, employing an “everything matters” attitude that has worked wonders on and off the field. 

I can just picture McCoy giving his team a pep talk right now - “next time you take a dump, do it properly... it can be the difference between winning and losing." 

The Chargers have survived in spite of injuries to their top two running backs, and quarterback Philip Rivers continues to prove that he belongs among the top quarterbacks in the game. Rivers exploited a garbage Jaguars secondary last week and should face very little resistance against a similarly trash Jets secondary this week. Rex Ryan will apply his predictable third down pressure and Rivers will torch the Jets because he’s awesome against the blitz, leading to the obligatory confused look on the sidelines from Rex. Chalk another one up for San Diego. Chargers 27, Jets 16

The Wager: I’m torn here. San Diego is a covering machine under McCoy, but sooner or later, the Jets are going to play one of those games where they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, and I don’t want to be on the wrong side. There really isn’t a strong situational angle in favor of the Chargers here either. Pass

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -1, total 46

The Pick: I can only help but laugh at the proclamations that “the Patriots are done” and “the Bengals may be the best team in the AFC”. These statements are absolutely comical. 

Ok, the Patriots got dismantled in Kansas City on Monday. I get it - they looked awful, and they haven’t looked good through the first four weeks, but let’s put things into perspective here. Three of New England’s first four games have come on the road, with the lone home game coming against the lowly Raiders.

The Patriots are consistently awful when they’re big favorites, so I don’t put much stock into that Oakland game either. Despite what you saw on Monday night, New England still boasts a strong defense, and they should be able to exploit some weaknesses that no one is talking about in regards to the Bengals defense. 

Cincinnati gives up a massive 5.1 yards per carry, despite having gone up against Shonn Greene, Steven Jackson, and Bernard Pierce/Justin Forsett so far this season. That’s a staggering number against some pretty marginal talent, and that’s a matchup that the Patriots can definitely exploit with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. 

The presence of a running game will finally open things up for Tom Brady, and he’ll be able to work the play-action that has made him so successful in years past. 

As for Cincinnati, it’s laughable that they’re considered one of the league’s top teams right now. They’ve been outyarded in two of their three games, despite playing against a pretty mediocre schedule. Even after the Pats’ debacle on Monday night, New England’s defense ranks sixth in the league in terms of yards per play (5.0), and fourth in yards allowed per game (315.2). 

The Bengals have some strong talent on offense, but they’re still quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who has 34 turnovers in 25 career road games, and they still have some issues with their red zone offense. Everyone thinks that Tom Brady and the Patriots are done, but they’ll prove the world wrong on Sunday night. Patriots 27, Bengals 20

The Wager: This line defies any sort of logic whatsoever. It implies that the Patriots would be a 7-point underdog if this game were in Cincinnati, which is absolutely ridiculous considering the Bengals were 6.5-point favorites at home to Tennessee and 5.5-point favorites at home to Atlanta. This is one of the biggest overreactions I’ve ever seen in my life, so I’ll gladly grab New England as a home dog. Patriots +1

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it. I went 3-2 with my selections last week with losses on Jacksonville and Tennessee (does that sound familiar at all?), to improve my record to a paltry 9-11.

I will certainly have New England on my card this week, but other than that, I haven’t settled on any other plays. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after they’re submitted on Friday evening.

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