Why Perez's extension could be huge risk for Red Bull

Red Bull made arguably the safest choice by giving Sergio Perez a two-year extension Tuesday, but the reigning constructors' champions may have erred too far on the side of caution.

Retaining Perez to maintain harmony with Max Verstappen is logical from Red Bull's perspective. The pair seemingly get along well, and Perez is not often a threat to take points off Verstappen. But in a grid that's only getting tighter at the front, Perez hasn't shown the ability to consistently take points off Verstappen's rivals, either.

That could make Red Bull and even Verstappen vulnerable in a future title fight.

Signs of that are already showing in 2024. Despite an early-season honeymoon in which Verstappen and Perez collected three 1-2 podiums, the RB20 doesn't enjoy the same competitive advantage as its predecessor, the RB19. And with every race, McLaren and Ferrari appear to be creeping closer to catching Red Bull.

Those factors have combined to put Perez fifth in the drivers' standings, leaving him exposed among the rest of the front-runners. He finished fourth in Miami, behind his teammate, McLaren, and Ferrari. In Imola, Perez placed eighth, trailing Verstappen, both McLaren and Ferrari drivers, and even Mercedes. Monaco was even worse, as he started 18th and was taken out in a Lap 1 crash.

Red Bull's lead in the constructors' standings is down to 24 points, but even that feels generous. McLaren and Ferrari brought key upgrades over the last three races, and it's no surprise Red Bull has scored the fewest points out of the bunch since.

It's hard to feel as if Red Bull was caught by surprise. Perez went through a massive slump in 2023 in which four other drivers outscored him over the season's second half. And that was while he operated statistically one of the most dominant cars in the sport's history.

Red Bull still secured the constructors' title that year, but the advantage appears long gone now. A consistently strong Ferrari or McLaren could mean big trouble for even Verstappen's future title chances. Without a teammate near the front of the grid, the Dutch pilot is more vulnerable, lacking a rear gunner to offset any two-on-one challenges from McLaren, Ferrari, or both.

The Milton Keynes team seems to be banking on the stability Perez brings and the idea that several tracks will continue to favor Red Bull in the future, thus elevating Perez. The difference between right and wrong could cost Red Bull much more than the money agreed upon in Perez's extension.