Making sense of Red Bull's decision to swap Lawson for Tsunoda
Red Bull has done it again. A team infamously known for its sometimes cruel and often questionable decisions when it comes to the second seat outdid itself Thursday, officially dropping Liam Lawson for Yuki Tsunoda after just two races.
Why now?
That's a good question.
In Red Bull's defense, the team may have felt the situation warranted immediate action. The upcoming race in Japan marks the beginning of a triple-header, and making a swap during that time was likely not feasible. If Lawson continued to struggle, Red Bull may have found itself completely out of the constructors' fight by the time the three races were complete. Tsunoda will also be making his Red Bull debut in front of his home fans in Japan, which should be a great moment that alleviates some of the public backlash.
On the flip side, deciding Lawson's future after two races, at circuits he'd never driven prior, reeks of an impulsive move. Suzuka, the next track, is one that Lawson knows quite well from his junior days. The grand prix after that is Bahrain, another circuit where the Kiwi driver has experience due to preseason testing.
Is Red Bull justified in sacking Lawson?
Time will tell.
One aspect is certain - Lawson's struggles were unsustainable. No points and qualifying results of 18th and 20th were not going to cut it, even in a difficult RB21 car, when his teammate was starting on the first or second row.
But if Red Bull had such little confidence in Lawson's ability to recover from the first two races, then perhaps those in charge shouldn't have promoted him over Tsunoda to begin with. Two weekends shouldn't be enough to change Red Bull's opinion, especially since it proclaimed that Lawson was picked for his potential. For a team that was criticized for letting Sergio Perez overstay his welcome, this feels like a major overreaction. Red Bull gave Pierre Gasly more races (12) before sacking him in 2019 than Lawson was given days (10) to prove himself.
Will Lawson ever make it back to Red Bull?
Probably not.
History shows once a Red Bull driver is axed, he never makes it back. Gasly wasn't recalled despite an impressive few years at AlphaTauri. Alex Albon was demoted to a reserve role in 2021 and went off to Williams after that. Daniil Kvyat lost his seat to Max Verstappen and spent the rest of his F1 career with the junior team.
If those drivers couldn't find their way back, it's hard to think Lawson will. It's more probable the 23-year-old will be a placeholder until Red Bull's next prospect - 17-year-old Arvid Lindblad - is ready for Formula 1. That could be as soon as 2026.
How will Tsunoda perform in the RB21?
He'll likely be better than Lawson. But how much better is what matters.
Tsunoda is fast. That's not up for debate. He outmatched Daniel Ricciardo last season, sent the Australian packing, and then beat his replacement, Lawson, 6-0 in head-to-head qualifying to end 2024.
Tsunoda should be an upgrade, but when your predecessor is qualifying at the back of the grid, it's hard not to be an improvement. Will it be enough? That's the important question. The RB21 is not an easy car to drive. Even Verstappen said so himself. Tsunoda was qualifying his Racing Bulls car in the top 10. What happens if he fails to put his new stubborn machinery into Q3? Red Bull will have a better driver but still be faced with the reality of fighting with one hand tied behind its back.
By promoting Tsunoda, Red Bull is treating a symptom rather than the disease while its machinery is unable to be mastered by anyone other than Verstappen.
Is Red Bull's second seat cursed?
Red Bull has a Red Bull problem, not a second-driver problem.
How many times can Red Bull have a young driver fall flat on his face before taking a look in the mirror? It wasn't always this way. This was once a place that was lauded for its junior driver development, with Sebastian Vettel, Ricciardo, Carlos Sainz, and Verstappen coming through its ranks. Now it's a buzzsaw that mercilessly claims victim after victim.
It's no secret that Red Bull's cars have been notoriously tricky. And the trickier the machinery, the more Verstappen is able to flex his ability and put the car in places it may not belong. This begins a cat-and-mouse game of chasing performance as pressure and media attention grows, with Verstappen not missing a beat while the other car is struggling in Q1 or Q2.
The best solution is likely to acquire a highly rated veteran, such as Sainz, who was available last year. But Red Bull's philosophy of an undisputed No. 1 alongside a wingman who picks up the scraps has stopped this approach from happening since Ricciardo left after 2018.
Instead, Red Bull keeps putting the wrong - and often inexperienced - candidates inside a difficult car, alongside a generational talent, and in an environment that has a massive spotlight and championship expectations. It's a recipe for failure.
When it comes to Red Bull's second-seat dilemma, the call is coming from inside the house.